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Climate change: effects on plant pests and diseases in Brazil

Regional Technical Meeting on CLIPS and Agrometeorological Applications for the Mercosur Countries Campinas – SP – Brazil, 13-16 July 2005. Climate change: effects on plant pests and diseases in Brazil. Emília Hamada emilia@cnpma.embrapa.br Raquel Ghini raquel@cnpma.embrapa.br.

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Climate change: effects on plant pests and diseases in Brazil

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  1. Regional Technical Meeting on CLIPS and Agrometeorological Applications for the Mercosur Countries Campinas – SP – Brazil, 13-16 July 2005 Climate change: effects on plant pests and diseases in Brazil Emília Hamada emilia@cnpma.embrapa.br Raquel Ghini raquel@cnpma.embrapa.br

  2. Presentation Outline • Plant pests and diseases and climate change • A study: Coffee leaf miner and nematode • Main challenges

  3. Agriculture is the most weather dependent sector • The goal of protecting plants is to reduce the damage caused by phytosanitary problems to reach the potential production of the plants. • Studying the possible effects of climate change on the plant pests and disease is essencial to adopt mitigated actions

  4. Environment Disease Pathogen Host plant DISEASE TRIANGLE • Phytopathology paradigm: interactions between susceptible host plant, virulent pathogen and suitable environment

  5. The pathogen tends to follow the host plant in its geographical distribution • The development stages of pathogen and host plant are affected by the environment • Climage change can affect pathogen, host plant and interaction between them

  6. A STUDY: COFFEE LEAF MINER AND NEMATODE Coffee leaf miner (Perileucopter coffeela) is the most important pest of coffee plants This pest occurs in all Brazilian producing regions The lost is of the order of 37% in some regions of São Paulo State

  7. Coffee nematode (Meloidogyne incognita) is the most important nematode´s species in Brazil.

  8. Members of the study: Raquel Ghini (Embrapa Meio Ambiente) Emília Hamada (Embrapa Meio Ambiente) Mario José Pedro Junior (IAC) José Antonio Marengo (CPTEC-INPE) • Goal: Compare the geographic distribution maps of probable number of coffee leaf miner cicles and coffee nematode generations, considering the actual scenario and the future scenarios

  9. Actual (1961-1990) Future (IPCC) MATERIAL AND METHODS + Biological models Climate data GIS + Coffee leaf miner Coffee nematode

  10. Climate data • Future (IPCC - DCC) • 2020 (2010 – 2039) • 2050 (2040 - 2069) • 2080 (2070 – 2099) A2 and B2 scenarios

  11. Climate models and variables Spatial resolution: 0.5 X 0.5 degrees Interpolation: Square Inverse Distance

  12. Mean Temperature - October – A2 scenario 2050 2080 2020

  13. Maximum Temperature – October – A2 scenario 2020 2050 2080

  14. Relative Humidity – October – A2 scenario 2020 2050 2080

  15. Biological models Coffee leaf miner – Parra (1985) Coffee nematode – Jaehn (1991) Direct effect of the temperature

  16. Probable number of coffee leaf miner cycles – October – A2 scenario 61% 32% 4% 2020 2050 2080

  17. Probable annual number of coffee leaf miner cycles – A2 scenario 2020 2080 Actual

  18. Probable number of coffee nematode generations - October - 2080 48% 65% Breed 4 - A2 Breeds 1 and 2 - A2 Breeds 1 and 2 - B2

  19. Probable annual number of coffee nematode generations breed 1, 2 Actual 2080 – A2

  20. CONCLUSIONS • The incidence of coffee leaf miner and nematode can increase in the future • The phytosanitary problems are increasing considering 2020, 2050, and 2080 • The B2 scenario is less pessimistic than the A2 scenario

  21. Parra´s model was developed to São Paulo state, but the results are well fitted for the purpose of considering the actual scenario to all the country • The highest rate of pest plant development occurs in October, in both actual and future scenarios • Similar tendency is observed to coffee nematode. Highest number of development of breeds 1 and 2 compared to breed 4

  22. Continuing the study… • Diseases • Coffee: Rust • Bean: Rust, Angular Leaf Spot • Banana: Yellow Sigatoka

  23. MAIN CHALLENGES • The most of biological models of plants or disease and pests of plants require daily, sometimes hourly information • The global circulation climatic models frequently have low spatial and temporal resolution • Challenge: Adjust the requirements of biological models available and of global circulations models • Tendency: regionalization – downscalling • Spatial resolution – Temporal resolution

  24. THANK YOU!!

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