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STATE OF THE ORLANDO APARTMENT MARKET: 2013. CHARLES WAYNE CONSULTING, INC. PRESENTED BY: DARYL SPRADLEY. DISNEY. 1965. AIR, RAIL AND ROADS ENERGIZE TOURISM, EMPLOYMENT AND HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES. DISNEY: Air, Rail & Roads. Lake Lr is a. Lake Louisa. State. Park.

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STATE OF THE ORLANDO

APARTMENT MARKET:

2013

CHARLES WAYNE CONSULTING, INC.

PRESENTED BY: DARYL SPRADLEY


DISNEY

1965

AIR, RAIL AND ROADS

ENERGIZE TOURISM, EMPLOYMENT AND

HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES


DISNEY: Air, Rail & Roads

Lake

Lr is a

Lake Louisa

State. Park

-5 O rlando

  • Inn 551

A irp3ri.

.9▪ 3

Bari Laike•

---

1,3 ke

  • Fart

  • ra

nge

Fells Cove

Lahe

It Disney World

Re so rl...IV all Disney.

World Resoit

CP-4.74

429

.3 a wgreak: Lake

L

27].

9

star

  • Oakrand

  • -114.111111PAMMI

  • fdlihnS Lip( e

..•

ii••=

401

E xpy

430

Ocoee

Lake spe er

5

rr

  • ::r41inneol

— I 0

el e l rati

192-

nice

Tohopekafiga

Lake Sheen

Winter Garden


OIA

1976

INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS

OPEN UP GLOBAL MARKETS


Medical City

2005

WHERE ROADS GO,

JOBS AND HOUSING FOLLOWS


SunRail

2014

COMMUTER RAIL TO LINK

HOUSINGS AND JOBS


TRANSIT STATIONS

3000+

UNITS

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

AND

PROPOSED

JUST THE BEGINNING!

YNE CONSULTING. INC.


All Aboard Florida

2016

HEAVY RAIL TO LINK

BUSINESS AND TOURISM MARKETS:

ORLANDO TO MIAMI


KEY TRENDS

  • Suburban Projects: $1.15 - $1.25

  • Tax / Bond Projects: Low Volume

  • Urban Projects: $1.60 - $2.00

  • Urban Light Projects: $1.11 - $1.27

Student Units: Strong! / Sustainable?


TOP SUBAREAS

I

H K G J

A

East Orange County / UCF Kissimmee / St. Cloud South Orlando

Southwest Orange County

D

B C

I

E F

H

G

J

I

K

I

SOURCE: Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.


POPULATION FORECAST

2,405,300

2,353,500

2,304,800

2,259,400

2,219,600

2,184,600

2,154,100

2,134,400

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; UF, Bureau of Economic & Business Research; Florida Office of Economic & Demographic Research; Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.

2,450,000

2,400,000

2,350,000

2,300,000

2,250,000

2,200,000

2,150,000

2,100,000

2,050,000

2,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


POPULATION GROWTH

51,800

48,700

45,400

39,800

35,000

30,500

20,600

19,700

0

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; Florida Office of Economic & Demographic Research; Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.

40,000

60,000

50,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


JOB GROWTH

60.0

50.0

51.1

40.0

46.0

44.3

36.3

30.0

20.0

22.7

10.0

0.0

-1.0

-0.7

-10.0

-20.0

-30.0

-40.0

-50.0

-59.6

-60.0

NOTE: Not seasonally adjusted. By place of work.

SOURCE: Florida Research & Economic Information Database

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(thousands)


THEME PARK ATTENDANCE

70.0

68.0

68.0

66.3

66.0

64.0

64.0

63.2

63.1

62.5

62.0

60.4

60.0

59.3

57.9

58.0

55.6

56.0

54.2

54.0

52.0

50.0

SOURCE: Theme Entertainment Association; AECOM

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(millions)

64.2 64.6


HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE

SOURCE: U.S. Census

75.0%

70.0%

65.0%

60.0%

55.0%

66.8%

65.4%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

6 199 1997 1998 1999

61.0%

60.2%

59.6%

61.7%

66.5%

2001

62.5%

2000

62.3%

62.4%

2002

2003

2004

60.5%

63.0%

65.5%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

66.6%

69.1%

70.5%

71.1%

71.8%

70.5%

72.4%

70.8%

68.6%

68.0%


NEW HOME DEMAND

10,600

9,600

8,800

8,000

5,800

6,000

5,000

4,600

4,100

5,300

3,600

4,000

5,000

4,300

3,400

2,000

2,700

0

14,000

12,000

10,000

SOURCE: Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.

NOTE: SF Includes custom and production units. Orlando MSA includes Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake Counties. Demand estimates require annual adjustments.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Single-Family Townhomes & Condos Apartments

11,200

11,000


APARTMENT UNITS

151,952

151,156

135,782

151,496

152,329

1 4 1, 13 5

83,303

SOURCE: Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.

10

1

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

149,672

150,955

75,638

77,764

81,2

147,154 140,052

134,459

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

1 0 1 , 3 6 5

160,000

Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

84,345

85,383

84,744

86,152

86,885

88,445

91,094

92,749

93,541

95,557

96,643

99,504

1 05, 4 9 0

109,020

113,548

118,869

125,361

131,767

136,370

1 44,5 2 6

146,802

150,064

151,948

151,037

136,987

139,605

144,659

147,51

153,084

154,437

155,703

156,896

170,000

NOTE: Based on RMR qualified projects. Includes Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Lake and Northeast Polk Counties.


APARTMENT OCCUPANCY

100%

95%

90%

88.8%

88.2%

87.5%

85%

80%

Mar-12

Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09

Mar-11

Mar-10

Mar-13

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

SOURCE: Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.

89.4% 89.6%

NOTE: Based on RMR qualified projects. Includes Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Lake and Northeast Polk Counties.

91.1% 91.2%

93.0% 93.1%

93.9% 93.9% 94.4%


UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

SOURCE: Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.

4,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

6,675

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

3,699 3,888

NOTE: Based on RMR qualified projects. Includes Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Lake and Northeast Polk Counties.

09

Sep-

3,169

Mar-10

1,627 1,526

Sep-10

Mar-11

2,000 1,929

Sep-11

Mar-12

3,250 3,191

Sep-12

Mar-13

5,855

Sep-13

7,124


SUPPLY~DEMAND DYNAMICS

6,500

6,000

5,684

5,500

5,000

5,013

4,500

4,029

4,000

3,367

3,500

3,066

3,000

2,356

2,500

2,459

2,000

2,108

1,500

1,484

1,000

1,173

500

0

SOURCE: Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.

2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3

Apt Unit Absorption Apt New Supply

NOTE: Based on RMR qualified projects. Includes Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Lake and Northeast Polk Counties.

3,700 ANNUAL AVERAGE ABSORPTION


RENT GROWTH

10%

8.8%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5.6%

5.2%

5%

4.3%

4.1%

3.7%

4%

3.5%

2.8%

3%

2%

1%

0%

SOURCE: ALN; Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.

Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13

Vacancy Rate Eff Rent Growth

7.0% 6.9%

6.1% 6.1%


NEW HOUSING DYNAMICS

6,500

6,000

5,684

5,615

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,029

3,878

4,000

3,311

3,367

3,500

2,951

3,066

2,881

3,000

2,790

2,500

2,356

2,000

1,995

1,500

1,793

1,000

500

0

SOURCE: Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.

2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3

Apt Unit Absorption SF Production Closings MF Closings

NOTE: Includes qualified projects in Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Lake and NE Polk. For-sale closings for 2012 0.3 to 2013 0.3 are estimates.

2,217 2,223


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NOTE: Circles indicate likely geographic areas of development based on current activity and vested land holdings.

SOURCE: Charles Wayne Consulting, Inc.

Polk City

NT 0 LI NID ORA

7--TakE.

Dora

Tangerine

1:1 herpes

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS


CHARLES WAYNE CONSULTING, INC.

2300 MAITLAND CENTER PARKWAY SUITE 212 MAITLAND, FL 32751 (407) 660-0186

www.CharlesWayneConsulting.com


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