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Rural Economic Features and Performance—A Seventh District Overview

Rural Economic Features and Performance—A Seventh District Overview. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago October 26, 2011. Roadmap. Performance Population Income Unemployment Economic Structure Agriculture Manufacturing Retirement/recreation Education Challenges and Opportunities.

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Rural Economic Features and Performance—A Seventh District Overview

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  1. Rural Economic Features and Performance—A Seventh District Overview Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago October 26, 2011

  2. Roadmap • Performance • Population • Income • Unemployment • Economic Structure • Agriculture • Manufacturing • Retirement/recreation • Education • Challenges and Opportunities

  3. Population

  4. U.S. population still urbanizing

  5. Population “rural” is fairly close across U.S. regions

  6. Population growth varies much across counties Source: ERS “Atlas of Rural and Small-town America.”

  7. “Ruralness” varies greatly; being adjacent to highways and metro areas has mattered to growth (historically) Source: ERS, “Atlas of Rural and Small-town America”

  8. District and Wisconsin population

  9. Indiana and Iowa population

  10. Illinois and Michigan

  11. Income

  12. Per capita income in metro vs. non-metro in U.S. largely same spread since 1969

  13. Economic conditions vary Persistent poverty 1970-2000 Source: ERS, “Atlas”

  14. District incomes apace since 1969, while WI moved ahead this decade

  15. Michigan is faring well lately, while IA is catching up to lagging decade(s)

  16. Non-metro counties have also lagged in IL and IN, with recent gains

  17. Unemployment

  18. Economic conditions vary Unemployment 2010 Source: ERS, “Atlas”

  19. Unemployment runs apace in the District, with WI non-metro URs usually higher

  20. Non-metro URs also higher in IA and MI

  21. IL non-metro has been “spot on” while non-metro runs higher in Indiana

  22. Roadmap • Performance • Population • Income • Unemployment • Economic Structure • Agriculture • Manufacturing • Retirement/recreation • Education • Challenges and Opportunities

  23. Agriculture

  24. Farm productivity

  25. 7th District Crop Yield Indexes(1964=100) Corn Soybeans

  26. Real Crop Prices

  27. The farm economy recovery – the basis of rising asset prices?

  28. Real farm earnings have been leading other sectors in most District states

  29. Indiana and Illinois

  30. Iowa and Michigan

  31. Farm Operator Income—Over time, as farms have dwindled and consolidated, proprietors’ income has grown, and non-farm income has become increasingly important

  32. Many small farms subsist on non-farm income—either with one or more working non-farm jobs, or “hobby farms”

  33. Only large farms and very small farms are growing;Most farmland accounted for by very large farms Source: ERS

  34. Manufacturing

  35. Farm dependent counties (20 Percent of more of income); Mfg dependent counties (30 percent or more)

  36. Wisconsin non-metros have fared “well” in mfg. And value-added mfg. in food processing:

  37. Manufacturing Share of Jobs, 1969; Non-metro counties

  38. Manufacturing Share of Jobs, 2009; Non-metro counties

  39. Still, manufacturing jobs shrink in relative importance…..so rural areas remain challenged

  40. Declining jobs have fared “less worse” in District’s non-metro areas since 1969

  41. Michigan has fared the worst, Iowa the best

  42. Illinois rural manufacturing has performed especially poorly, losing one-half since 1969

  43. Manufacturing is no exception—education/skills matter to keeping or growing jobs

  44. Education pays, be it services or goods production, metro or non-metro

  45. Educational attainment higher in metropolitan counties in U.S., with gains in both places

  46. Low-education non-metro counties are rare in the Midwest

  47. Nonetheless, few non-metro counties exceed their own statewide average in attainment.Share with Some College Education,Non-metro Counties

  48. Retirement/Recreation

  49. Population Growth by Amenities

  50. Recreation/retirement counties

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