Ethnic Fractionalization and Interstate Conflict. Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London [email protected] Ethnic Fractionalization. ELF = 1 - ∑ (share of group i out of a total of n groups), for all groups Chance that two random individuals will be from different groups.
ELF = 1 - ∑ (share of group i out of a total of n groups), for all groups
Chance that two random individuals will be from different groups.
Ethnic Fractionalization (Fearon-Laitin 2003)
Realism – external conflict deflects attention from elite illegitimacy (Van Evera 1994); helps to provide cohesion in fractious states : There are many in our times who ...[wish]... that this heated passion that is among us might be deflected into some war with our neighbors – Montaigne, 16thc. More internally pacified and united states less aggressive.
Constructivism/symbolism: nations constructed in ethnically diverse contexts may opt for universalistic ‘missionary’ nationalism (Roshwald 2006; Kumar 2003).
State Age vs. State Age x Ethnic Fractionalization
* p<.05; ** p<.01; ***p<.001