Climate Change in China: Impacts and adaptation

1. Climate Change in China:Impacts and adaptation Defra-DFID China-UK collaboration Reading July 29th, 2008 Prof Lin Erda lined@ami.ac.cn Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Declan Conway, UEA d.conway@uea.ac.uk

2. 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 Achievements in Phase I (2001-04) Climate Change Scenarios Temperature to increase by 3~4℃ and rainfall to increase 10~12% by 2080s Crop Yield Changes Yields of rice, maize and wheat to change significantly in the next 80 years - without any adaptations

3. Phase II (2005-08) Aims: • Improvements to national modeling of climate impacts • Ningxia case study: Integrated assessment for adaptation policy making

4. New results from Phase II Integrating climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios • Climate Change; • CO2 fertilization effects; • Water Availability; • Agricultural land conversion; • All drivers together

5. CLIMATE SCENARIOS EFFECTS OF CO2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS  T,  P,  R No, A2, B2 GDP, Pop., Water demand, Land use ADAPTATION POLICIES Improvements in Agric. Tech. IMPACTS ON CROP YIELDS, WATER AVAILABILITY, AND ARABLE LAND Land use change policies IMPACTS ON TOTAL PRODUCTION Water allocation policies

6. Annual change in temperature and rainfall for China: 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s • 17 GCMs from IPCC and PRECIS (A2 emissions)

8. Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers Only Climate Change Climate Change With CO2 and water Climate Change With CO2 Climate Change With Water Climate Change Water & Land All drivers

9. Changes in cereal production per capita under combinations of drivers

10. The effect of adaptation strategies on cereal production per capita

11. China Case Study: Regional Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation • Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences • Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture • Ningxia CDM service centre • Ningxia Meteorological Bureau Prof Lin Erda lined@ami.ac.cn Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Declan Conway, UEA d.conway@uea.ac.uk

12. Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west ChinaSemi-arid to arid – high levels of rural povertyRange of different farming systems

13. Ningxia regional Integrated Assessment – objectives • Research impacts and vulnerability in the agricultural sector • To help develop the capacity to plan for and respond to a changing climate in China and Ningxia • Design a regional adaptation framework and strategy for Ningxia • Awareness raising, dissemination and engagement

14. Adaptation guidelines for Ningxia • Technical report • User-friendly report for decision-makers consisting of three separate sections • Short presentation of an ‘adaptation framework’ • Explanation of how to apply the framework, experience from Ningxia • An example of an adaptation strategy for the agricultural sector in Ningxia

15. New knowledge/ research 2 Integrate development and adaptation goals 1Assess climate risks 3Identify adaptation options 6Monitoring and evaluation 5Implementation 4Prioritise options An adaptation framework for Ningxia Working with UKCIP Adaptation as a process

17. Rural livelihoods and vulnerability to climate hazards in Ningxia Questionnaires and discussions with farmers

19. High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation • Consider establishment of a cross-departmental group on adaptation within regional government • Raising awareness on climate change trends, potential impacts and adaptation activities across the region

21. Some reflections on Phase II Challenges: Uncertainty about the detail of CC remains high – need for • research to reduce uncertainties • flexibility / adaptive management Time scales beyond horizons of stakeholders Other socio-economic changes more significant (population, economic growth) Modelling impacts can become very complex and time consuming (CO2 fertilisation, model sensitivity, etc.) Climate science Seasonal forecasting / Decadal variability (causes of droughts) Improved understanding of CO2-crop water use-land cover interactions Better understanding of extremes (projections and impacts)

22. Some reflections on Phase II Methods: Consultation essential – need good understanding of current sensitivity, vulnerability and capacity to adapt Impacts assessment – can be very technical/time consuming – keep simple Embed CC concerns within existing management systems and processes No blueprints for adaptation, need to invest time on communication and awareness raising, especially at provincial level

23. Some reflections on Phase II Opportunities: Recent extremes may highlight current sensitivity and vulnerability (and effective responses) Concern about CC may be quite high Many existing options often already present – ‘no regrets’ [CC often exacerbates existing problems] Entry points likely to be dealing with existing ‘adaptation gap’: better management of climate hazards

24. Thank you