1 / 27

David H. Stevens President and Chief Executive Officer Mortgage Bankers Association

What’s the New Normal?. David H. Stevens President and Chief Executive Officer Mortgage Bankers Association. The Regulatory Ecosystem. …for what has become a very complicated web of relationships and interdependencies. Servicing. Origination. LO Comp. Servicing Standards. CFPB.

marvin
Download Presentation

David H. Stevens President and Chief Executive Officer Mortgage Bankers Association

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. What’s the New Normal? David H. Stevens President and Chief Executive Officer Mortgage Bankers Association

  2. The Regulatory Ecosystem • …for what has become a very complicated web of relationships and interdependencies. Servicing Origination LO Comp Servicing Standards CFPB Appraisals ATR/QM HMDA HUD/FHEO RESPA/TILA Disparate Impact/ Fair Lending Escrow QC Policy HPML Federal Reserve MIP Policy SAFE Risk Retention/ QRM Indemnification FDIC, OCC, SEC HUD/FHA Basel Loan Limits Minimum Servicing Fees LLPAs Volcker Rule G Fees Buybacks False Claims FHFA/GSEs DOJ Reg AB Securitization/ Secondary Markets Margin Rule DISCLAIMER: The policies/rules/regulations shown, as well the corresponding authors/stakeholders, are illustrative and thus may not be an exhaustive list. Author of Policy/Rule/Regulation Confidential: Not for Distribution Stakeholder of Policy/Rule/Regulation

  3. A Systemic Market Shift

  4. Estimated Originations 1990 to 2015 Source: MBA – July 2014 Mortgage Finance Forecast

  5. Refinance Applications – Recent Activity Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey

  6. Expensive to Run Total Net Production (bps) Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report

  7. A Changing Set of Demographics Looking Ahead: • Millennials will form 24 million new households • Households in their 30s – increase by 2.7 million • Majority Minority Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University

  8. Minorities Will Account for Three-Quarters of Household Growth Over the Coming Decade

  9. Household Growth - Younger Minorities and Aging Baby Boomers

  10. Projected Changes in the Population, by Age 2012 - 2022 Source: Census Bureau

  11. Share of Households Living in Central Cities, by Age of Householder, 2001, 2005 & 2011 Source: American Housing Survey

  12. Number of Women and Men with Bachelor’s and Higher Degrees, by Age, 2013 Thousands Source: Census

  13. Making the Dream a Reality?

  14. Owner- and Renter-occupied Households & Homeownership Rate Thousands of households Homeownership rate (%) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau

  15. Household Wealth Increasing Source: Federal Reserve

  16. Credit Score Trends Source: CoreLogic

  17. Credit Availability - One Quarter of Pre-Bubble Rate

  18. Lower FICO Borrowers In GSE Purchase Market – Declined & Not Returned Source: U.S. Mortgage Insurers

  19. Pricing Beyond Reasonable Returns? The proposed December gfees would have increased the cost of credit across the board. Furthermore, MI coverage lowers loss risk to an effective 67 LTV(1) (1)MI coverage protects against loss, but higher LTV loans would be expected to have a higher incidence of default

  20. Clear in Home Sales Data, Too

  21. What does the future look like?

  22. Share of First Time HomebuyersAs percent of existing home sales Source: National Association of Realtors

  23. Challenge: The Delay Source: FRBNY / Equifax

  24. Echo Boom Will Fuel Future Demand

  25. Industry Keeping Options Open!

  26. 5 Strategic Areas for Success

More Related