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Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems Programmatic Status

Aviation Safety & Security Program. Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems Programmatic Status. NASA-FAA-Industry Turbulence Certification Workshop Nov 3-4, 2004 James F. Watson NASA-Langley Research Center. Program Organization. Aviation Safety & Security Program Office.

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Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems Programmatic Status

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  1. Aviation Safety & Security Program Turbulence Prediction and Warning SystemsProgrammatic Status NASA-FAA-Industry Turbulence Certification Workshop Nov 3-4, 2004 James F. Watson NASA-Langley Research Center

  2. Program Organization Aviation Safety & Security Program Office George Finelli, Director John White, Deputy Director Gin Marks, Sr. Prog Analyst Brian Smith, Dep Prog Mgr (ARC) , Ron Colantonio, Dep Prog Mgr (Acting, GRC) Program Integration Program Integration Technical Integration Technical Integration Michael Basehore (FAA) Frank Jones Carrie Walker (HQ) ( LaRC ) 1.4 1.5 1.3 Thrust Weather Safety Technology Systems Safety Technology Areas Vehicle Safety Technology 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.8 Weather Aircraft Icing Single Synthetic Accident System - Wide Aviation Search and Accident Mary Wadel Aircraft Vision Mitigation Accident System Rescue Projects Prevention (GRC) Accident Daniel Baize Robert Prevention Monitoring & David Affens K. Martzaklis Prevention Cheryl Allen McKnight Tina Beard Modeling (GSFC) (GRC) John White ( LaRC ) (GRC) (ARC) Irving Statler ( LaRC ) (ARC) Turbulence Prediction & Warning Systems (TPAWS) Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Elements Jim Watson, (LaRC) Rod Bogue, Dep (DFRC) Paul Stough (LaRC) Mike Jarrell (GRC)

  3. Goals & Objectives • Weather Accident Prevention Goal:Develop enabling technologies to reduce weather-related accident causal factors by 25-50% and turbulence-related injuries by 25-50% by year 2007. • WxAP Objective Number 3: Develop turbulence prediction technologies, hazard metric methods, and mitigation procedures to enable a 25-50% reduction in turbulence-related injuries. • TPAWS Goal: Develop and augment knowledge of both the turbulence phenomena and the effects of turbulence on aircraft, and develop technologies to detect convective and clear air turbulence and mitigate the effects on aircraft passengers

  4. TPAWS Focus Areas • Systems-Oriented Process • Get the right turbulence information to/from the right aircraft with sufficient time for necessary decision making; focus on airborne tactical decisions • End User/Customer Collaboration • One-to-one workshops; MOUs, MOAs for transitioning TPAWS items • TPAWS website for dissemination of technology status/flight results • Certification Requirements • Turbulence Modeling and Simulation • Formulation of turbulence safety hazard metric based upon aircraft dependent attributes • End-to-end analytical studies for scoring criteria/rules, validation boundaries

  5. TPAWS Research-Development Team WindShear Experience Air Force MANTECH Atmospheric Science LIDAR Technology AeroTechResearch Coherent Technologies, Inc. NCAR Radar Signal Algorithms Turbulence PDT Team NASA FAA Aviation Weather Program LaRC/DFRC Research/Flight Assets Test Bed Aircraft NCSU Turbulence Encounters Honeywell Rockwell-Collins RTI Boeing Radar Technology Radar Signal Processing Aircraft Controls Aircraft Mods Private Industry Academia Government

  6. TPAWS Airborne Centric Concept Data Link Data Link Flight Management System A/C Controls/Mitigation Schemes Decision Aids Presentation to Pilot Processors Onboard Sensors Airborne Turbulence Information TurbulenceAuto-PIREP Airborne scaling & display of Turbulence Auto-Pirep’s information Forward-Looking Sensors: Radar and LIDAR Ground-basedTurbulenceProducts

  7. FY04 Key Accomplishments WxAP #12 TPAWS Radar In-Service Evaluation • Consortium of ATR/Rockwell-Collins/Delta Airlines • - E-turb WXR-2100 Multiscan radar using NASA technology was prototyped/validated; Sabreliner operational tests • - TSO and STC developed/approved; unit installed on DAL B737-800 • - Tail #3708 has been flying with E-turb Radar, with special DAL pilot instructions, since late Aug-04. • - Downloads have occurred from the E-turb Radar unit using the event data logger capability, representing about 12 hours of data over the time period 23-Aug to 30-Sep-04.

  8. FY04 Key Accomplishments TPAWS #17 Certification Methods/Tools for Turbulence System Technology • FY04 50% budget cut for this milestone resulted in elimination of scoring rules/integration activity. • COTS tools and hardware components were procured with salvaged funding. • - High end TPAWS workstation with Windows and Linux capabilities. • RTI/ADWRS v5.3 modifications and enhancements have been completed. • - Acceptance demo conducted on TPAWS workstation.

  9. TPAWS-Cert Background • Certification Workshop initiated by WxAP PM, Dec-00; six conducted to date. • Workshop#3, TPAWS was chartered to lead this activity, and develop specific milestone and budgets for FY02+ • “Tiger-team” was formulated, met, and produced the Cert Methodology Chart, Sept-01; “6-box chart” • Three highly successful, collaborative workshops of NASA-FAA-Industry Turbulence Detection Certification Team • - Feb-02 at NASA-LaRC, Workshop#4 • - Sept-02 at FAA-Long Beach, Workshop#5 • - Dec-03 at NASA-LaRC, Workshop#6

  10. Certification Methodology wind field reflectivity I & Q • 1) Turbulence Events/Scenarios • Enough events? • Domain size/number of scatterers • Roles of von Karman and cloud models • V&V of cloud model • Model reflectivity vs radar reflectivity • Time evolution? • 2) Radar Simulation • Phase modulation? • ADWRS / other v&v • Radar scenarios (see description of “Radar Truth field” output) • 3) Radar Algorithm* • NASA standard algorithm • Moment estimate field on radar grid. • Load estimate field on radar grid. *Vendor equipment/ products will replace this block Estimated loads on radar grid • 4) Aircraft Specific Test Criteria • Weight • Type • Speed wind altitude • 5) Aircraft “Truth” Fields • Domain size (1, 2, 3-D) • Technique for producing truth • Aircraft type/configuration; generic vs. actual* • errors due to parameter uncertainty (e.g., weight) • *NASA task 2 as defined at OKC meeting 05/01 • 6) Comparative Analysis & Statistics • Flight deck issues • Polar to Cartesian conversion • Hit/miss scoring rules Estimated loads on Wx model grid 25-Sept-01

  11. Web Sites • http://tpaws.larc.nasa.gov • Prime location of significant TPAWS info • - Certification Workshops #1-6 items • - LaRC-757 turbulence flight data/results • - Distribution of turbulence data sets and tools for certification • http://wxap.grc.nasa.gov • Prime location of significant WxAP info • -Presentations of WxAP Annual Review Meetings#1-4, including specific session presentations of all TPAWS research activities through mid-FY04

  12. FY04 Key Accomplishments TPAWS #22 Turbulence Systems Cockpit Displays • AWIN-TPAWS Integrated Experiment • Formulation of turbulence cockpit displays with AWIN • Preliminary and Final Experiment Reviews conducted successfully. • Experiment at ARC (747 sim) is planned for Jan-05 thru mid-Feb-05. • Alerting / Display concepts evolved from presentations Workshops 4-6

  13. FY04 Key Accomplishments Other Activities • Auto-pilot Enhancements for Turbulence Encounter Ride Smoothing • Milestone#23 completed 30-Sep-04 with Boeing study/simulation/control law report and presentation • Lidar Turbulence Detection Performance Assessment • Milestone#25 completed 30-Sep-04 with report of results of two Lidar flight activities conducted on the DFRC DC-8 • WxAP “Annual” Review #4: • Jun 2-4, 2004 at Las Vegas; DAL keynote address • All TPAWS research-technology areas presented • TPAWS “break-out” session; FAA 3-yr certification plan initiation • CAST Items: • Turbulence JSIT Final Report issued. • JIMDAT turbulence impact total cost model updated; $7+BILLION/yr

  14. FY04 TPAWS Summary • Significant accomplishment with DAL/ATR/RC E-turb Radar ISE • - Outstanding collaboration, in-kind-support • Significant accomplishment in Cert Methods & Tools • - FY04 budget hit, *took a lickin’, kept on tickin’* • - Positioning for transition to FAA 3 yr project • Re-formulated the Turbulence Flight Deck Display Activity • - Team with AWIN, consolidated experiment with ARC • Significant resource issues, expected to continue • - Full cost accounting • - CS fte allotments and skills • - Procurement budget for contracting support

  15. FY05 Programmatic Boundaries • Schedule • ALL Phase-1 activities are to be completed by 30-Sep-05 • Budget Guidelines • TPAWS FY03-05 guidelines are intact <inaccurate> • FY04-05 program support/infrastructure costs continue to increase resulting in less Procurement $$ < more so than imagined> • FY05 TPAWS Milestones + Procurement $$ decisions; 4-Nov-04 • Personnel & Flight Assets • FY05 TPAWS personnel resources will be “at minimal critical mass” to meet FY05 milestones; “wrap-up” based exit criteria • No research flight activities w/LaRC 757 aircraft

  16. FY05 TPAWS FAA-Cert Priorities • DAL 737-800 In-Service-Evaluation of E-Turb Radar, including performance report • Turbulence Data Sets, Tools, and Integrated Simulation Package for FAA certification • Transition the Integrated Simulation Package and applicable information to FAA 3-yr (05-07) Airborne Radar Minimal System Performance Project • Phase-2 planning (FY06+) for in-flight turbulence avoidance (info, decision aids, …) needs FAA, industry, airline advocacy and collaboration.

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