The Adapting to Rising Tides

1. TheAdapting to Rising Tides Project San Francisco Bay Conservationand Development Commission

2. ART Goal The goal of the ART project is to increase the preparedness and resilience of Bay Area communities to sea level rise and other climate change impacts while protecting ecosystem and community services. Photo: Ingrid Taylor

3. Adapting to Rising Tides • How will sea level rise and storm events affect the future of Bay Area communities, infrastructure, ecosystems and economy? • What approaches can we pursue, both locally and regionally, to assess these challenges, and reduce or manage these risks?

4. ART Objectives • Create an integrative (cross-sector and cross-jurisdiction) adaptation planning framework that can be applied in other areas of the Bay region • Develop, test, and refine adaptation tools and processes to help the region address climate change • Understand how adaptation planning can be scaled to different geographic extents – local, regional, state, federal

5. ART Planning Process

6. ART Assessment Frames • Society and Equity • Environment • Economy • Governance

7. Step 1 - Scope & Organize • Identify Partners • Review Climate Impacts • Select Planning Area and Assets

8. ART Partners ABAG Alameda County Public Works Community Development Public Health Department Transportation Commission BART Bay Institute Bay Trail CA Coastal Conservancy Capitol Corridor JPA City of Alameda City of Emeryville City of Hayward City of Oakland City of San Leandro City of Union City East Bay Dischargers Authority East Bay Municipal Utility District East Bay Regional Park District H.A.R.D. Pacific Institute PG&E Port of Oakland San Francisco Estuary Institute San Francisco Estuary Partnership

9. ART Working Collaborations • Active and engaged Working Group plus a Communication and a Technical Subcommittee • Working Group Members Provide: • Data • Judgment • Feedback • Tools of Collaboration: • Small meetings • Working group meetings • On-line survey • Phone interviews • Document review

10. ART Climate Impacts • More frequent floods • Floods that last longer • Permanent inundation • Shoreline erosion and overtopping • Elevated groundwater and salinity

11. ART Project Area • 66.7 square miles in Alameda county, including six cities, one unincorporated community, and numerous special districts • A diversity of land uses, key regional infrastructure, natural resources and shoreline communities • Local interest and capacity

12. ART Asset Categories • Airport • Community land use, facilities, services • Contaminated lands • Energy, pipelines and telecom • Hazardous material sites • Ground transportation • Parks and recreation • Natural shorelines • Seaport • Stormwater • Structural shorelines • Wastewater

13. Step 2 - Assess • Impacts, Vulnerability & Risk

14. Assessment Process

15. Assess Impacts Impacts Assessment • Local Climate Projections • Six future climate scenarios • Five potential climate impacts • Asset Inventory • Twelve asset categories • Metrics describing asset specific characteristics • Existing Conditions and Stressors Report

16. Existing Conditions • Summarizing the ART Impact Assessment:The Existing Conditions and Stressors Report • Project introductionand background • Climate change impacts under consideration • Description of assets in each category

17. Assess Vulnerability Vulnerability is the susceptibility of people, property, and resources to the negative impacts of climate change

18. Assessing Vulnerability • If exposed, would an asset be physically or functionally impaired? • If compromised could it maintain primary function? • Could primary function be restored quickly, easily or in a low-cost manner?

19. Assessing Risk • What is the magnitude of the expected consequenceson: • Society and Equity • Economy • Environment • Governance

20. V&R Approach To help answer Vulnerability and Risk questions: • Data-driven desktop analysis • Stakeholder survey and interviews

21. Data-Driven Desktop Components • Exposure Analysis • Shoreline Study • Asset Evaluation • Park and Recreation Values • Socio-economic Evaluation • Equity Approach

22. Exposure Analysis Used refined sea level rise and storm maps to determine potential asset exposure to: • Tidal inundation (i.e. daily high tide, MHHW) • Storm event flooding(100-year stillwater level) • Wind driven waves duringa 100-year storm event

23. Socio-Economic Evaluation • Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) • Key Demographics • Low-income population • Institutionalized population • Linguistically isolated • Renter-occupied • No vehicle • Property values (Assessor) • Building replacement values (HAZUS) • Workplace/Employees (HAZUS)

24. Stakeholder Survey and Interviews Best Professional Judgment: • Physical and functional sensitivity • Adaptive capacity • Magnitude of consequence • Equity considerations

25. ART V&R Report • Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Report • Identifies the underlying causes and componentsof vulnerability and risk • Presents methods, data and findings of the assessment www.adaptingtorisingtides.org

26. Communicating V&R • Vulnerability & Risk Profile Sheets • Includes a Key Issue Statement • Identifies timing of the vulnerability and scale of the consequences • Classifies the vulnerabilitiesinto actionable categories • Describes consequenceson people, the economy and ecosystem services

27. ART Classification Classification used to sort vulnerabilities and risks into actionable categories to support selection of adaptation strategies Management Control Physical Qualities Information People Timing Ecosystem Services Scale Vulnerability& Risk Adaptation Response

28. ART Adaptation Response Developed for four sectors incorporating all twelve asset categories: * Community Land Use * Utilities * Transportation * Shorelines *

29. ART Adaptation Response Taken together . . . Action + Effectiveness + Implementation = Adaptation Response Effectiveness – identifies how the proposed action addresses the vulnerability Implementation – the how, who and when necessary to implement the action Issue & Action – describes and classifies the vulnerability and identifies a proposed strategy

30. ART Adaptation Response • Highlight key issues in the ART project area • Adequate for certain types of vulnerabilities,e.g., systemic or policy issues • Provides a starting point for other vulnerabilities, e.g., specific or unique assets • Pinpoints the issue of scale – at the ART project scale some strategies are too general

31. ART Next Steps • Complete the “Plan” Step of the process • Develop a portfolio of planning process tools, materials, and lessons learned • Continue shoreline park adaptation planning • Partner with ABAG on multi-hazard shoreline resilience – initial focus on the Oakland International Airport and Bay Farm Island

32. Adapting to Rising Tides Visit the ART project at: www.adaptingtorisingtides.org Lindy Lowe lindyl@bcdc.ca.gov 415-352-3642 Wendy Goodfriend wendyg@bcdc.ca.gov 415-352-3646