Samuel Nii Ardey Codjoe 1 , Petra Tschakert 2 , Regina Sagoe 1 and Gifty Ofori-Darko 1

1. Concepts, Procedures, and Data for Understanding Food Security and Adaptive Response to Climate Change in Ghana Samuel Nii Ardey Codjoe1 , Petra Tschakert 2, Regina Sagoe1 and Gifty Ofori-Darko 1 1 Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Ghana 2Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, USA United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) grant #CCP 07 08. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) grant # EEM-A-00-06-00014)

2. Introduction • Most nations of the world were self-sufficient in food production in the 1960s - Green Revolution (Swaminathan, 1982) • 1970s and 1980s per capita food production declined • Over concentration of modes of production • To the detriment of distribution, affordability, accessibility and utilisation • Solving food insecurity requires these factors (Vogel and Smith, 2002; Clover, 2003; Leary et al. 2007).

3. Introduction • Projections on demand and supply of food into the current millennium were very positive (Devereux and Edwards, 2004). • However, projections did not capture regional food inequalities and global environmental change (Stephen and Downing, 2001) • Yet variability in climatic conditions could be a stumbling block to food production in SSA • Agriculture in SSA mainly relies on rainfall and is labour-intensive (Rosenzweig and Parry1994; Pearce et al. 1996; IPCC 2001a; Jones and Thornton, 2003).

4. Introduction • About 27% of population of Africa and 16% of W/Africa were undernourished (FAO, 2004) • In 2006, 25 African countries needed food aid due to drought • Prediction of African food security continue to remain bleak • Crop production – 40% increase, Meat – 58% by 2020 to meet demand (Pinstrup-Andersen et al., 1999)

5. Introduction • Studies predict that SS Africa will be particularly hard hit by global climatic changes due to three main reasons • First, because it already experiences high temperatures and low (and highly variable) precipitation particularly in the arid areas • Second, because the economies are highly dependent on agriculture and • Third, because there is low adoption of modern technology (Pearce et al. 1996; IPCC 2001a; Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal, 2003; Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994; Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006).

6. Major Problems of Food Production • External – Agricultural subsidies from the West (Oxfam, 2002; Palmer and Kline, 2003; Kousari, 2004) • Internal – Inadequate support, Use of low technology, Insufficient research (Dadson, 1998) • Physical – Drought, Bushfires, Degradation of natural resources (Oldeman, 1998), Soil fertility depletion (Sanchez et al. 1997) • Violence and famine (de Waal, 1990; Macrae and Zwi, 1994)

7. Objectives of the Presentation • Key Concepts in Climate Change • Procedure for generating data - Based on a study on Climate Change and Food Security in the Afram Plains of Ghana • Presentation of Data • Findings

8. Concepts • Food security is defined as physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious foods, which meet the individual’s dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO, 1996). • Part of a broader concept of food systems, which encompass a range of social, institutional, and ecological components (Ericksen, 2008), • Food systems include certain activities, the outcome of which contributes to food security.

9. Concepts Food Systems • Food availability - production, distribution and exchange • Food access - affordability, allocation and preference, and • Food utilization - nutritional value, social value and food safety (Ingram et al. 2005).

10. Concepts Vulnerability • Roots of vulnerability science can be traced to famine (Watts and Bohle, 1993) and natural hazards (Mustafa, 1998) research • Vulnerability of any system is a function of the exposure and sensitivity of that system to hazardous conditions and the ability or capacity or resilience of the system to cope, adapt or recover from the effects of those conditions (Smit and Wandel, 2006) • Vulnerability, its elements of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and their determinants are dynamic (they vary over time), and they vary by type, stimulus and are place- and system-specific

11. Concepts Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity • Adaptation is a process, action or outcome in a system for it to better cope with, manage or adjust to some changing conditions , stress, hazard, risk or opportunity (Smit and Wandel, 2006) • Adjustments in ecological-socio-economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli, their effects or impacts (Smit et al., 2000, p.225) • Based on timing, adaptations can be anticipatory or reactive, and depending on their degree of spontaneity they can be autonomous or planned (Frankhauser et al., 1999) • The forces that influence the ability of the system to adapt are the drivers of adaptive capacity (access to finance, kingship networks, technological and information resources etc.) • Adaptive capacity is context-specific and varies from country to country, community to community, among social groups and individuals over time

12. Concepts Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity • Adaptive capacity can be viewed through thresholds and “coping ranges” defined by the conditions that a system can deal with, accommodate, adapt to, and recover from (Smit and Pilifosova, 2003) • A system's adaptive capacity and coping range are not static. • Coping ranges are flexible and respond to changes in economic, social, political and institutional conditions over time (Folke et al., 2002)

13. Key Questions • How is the evidence of Climate Change/Climate Variability established? • What livelihood stressors do communities experience, and how does climate change rank among them? • How do communities perceive Climate Change? • How do communities monitor Climate Change locally for farming? • How are food systems impacted by Climate Change? • Are the impacts the same for all communities? • Who adapts better and who worse, and what are the underlying reasons? • What strategies do households use to adapt to flooding and food shortages?

14. Procedures • Simulations using meteorological data (Rainfall and Temperature) • Participatory risk mapping, ranking and scoring (Quinn et al., 2003; Tschakert, 2007) • Mental models (Bostrom et al., 1992; Zaksek and Arvai, 2004) • Historical matrices (Freudenberger-Schoonmaker, 1995) • Household surveys (Cramb et al., 2004) • Vulnerability mapping

15. Study Area Source: Tschakert et al., (in press) Climatic Change

16. Study Area

17. The Evidence of Climate Change - Science Mean Annual Rainfall for Afram Plains – 1960-2005 • Mean annual rainfall amount has been quite stable – Only a slight increase of 25 mm (1.8%)

18. The Evidence of Climate Change - Science Number of rain days for Afram Plains – 1960-2005 • General decline in number of rain days – 15 days (13.6%) • Rainfall in recent times (2000s) are more intensive • Shifts in precipitation peaks – 2 major peaks in June and Sept (1968-1977 and 1978-1997). However, there are 3 major peaks in April, July and September (1998-2007)

19. The Evidence of Climate Change - Science Mean annual temperature – 1960-2004, Afram Plains • General increase in temperature – 0.04o C (maximum) and 0.02o C (minimum)

20. The Evidence of Climate Change – Local Knowledge Chief Ransford’s Record • Highest rainfall used to be in June or July but now they occurred in September • Chief Ransford’s record shows 21 significant rain events in 43 days between August 21 and October 2, 2007 – Evidence of Floods

21. The Evidence of Climate Change – Local Knowledge Historical matrix of extreme climatic events identified by community members of Xerdzodzoekope

22. The Evidence of Climate Change – Local Knowledge Extreme Climatic Events include (a) January – July 1976: Very hot weather conditions, (b) 1983 - 1984: Drought – A year long of bush fires, (c) October – December 1989: Very hot weather conditions, (d) 1991: Lots of rains throughout the year, (e) 1995: About 40 days of intensive rains, (f) 2004: Very cold winds experienced during March-April (Easter) and November to January was very cold, (g) 2005: Cold periods resulting in animal deaths, (h) August 2006: One week of intensive rains, and (i) 2007: Lots of rains in August and September.

23. Participatory risk mapping, ranking and scoring

24. Participatory risk mapping, ranking and scoring

25. Mental Models

26. Mental Models

27. Mental Models • Although study communities do not have local names for climate change, references to climate change in the local languages connote the weather, rainfall, or temperature. • Akan - “Afe afe mu nsakraye” • Ewe - “Yeyi fi fe tortro” and “xexeame fe tortro” • In other places it is said “the climate is hot or the climate is cold”.

28. Mental Models • The causes of climate change are: • ·        Clearing bushes around water bodies • ·        Violation of taboos • ·      Bushfire •        Deforestation • ·        Continuous cropping on the same piece of land • ·        Charcoal burning / production • ·        Construction of the Akosombo dam resulting in the inundation of many areas and therefore destroying most of the trees and land

29. Mental Models • Local Climate Change Indicators include: • . Scanty rains in a previous year is an indication of heavy rains in the subsequent year • The sound of a toad in February is an indication of heavy rains coming soon and which will occur throughout the season • The sight of ants crossing paths is a sign of early rains • The arrival of the sparrow bird in November and their departure in December, is an indication of early rains. The birds can sometimes stay up to April, indicating delay in the onset of rains

30. Mental Models • Local Climate Change Indicators include: • .The sound of the water bird is also an indication of rains • Occurrence of the first rain in January on a Friday or Saturday, is an indication of good rains all year round. It is usually a heavy rain from Friday to Saturday. • The appearance of the rainbow in the East usually in March is an indication of good rains in the year. In October, the rainbow appears in the West, indicating the end of rain. • The sight of a bird flying very high up is an indication of less rain in the year

31. Household Surveys

32. Household Surveys

33. Household characteristics in Afram Plains Source: Field study, 2008

34. Food Availability in Afram Plains C: Cassava; M: Maize; G: Groundnut; Y: Yam (measured in tubers); P: Pepper. Source: Field study, 2008

35. Household Surveys • Food Availability: • Period of food shortage is the planting season • Reasons for food shortages includes: • Financial • Rainfall pattern • Poor yield • Poor health

36. Household Survey Food Availability Source: Field study, 2008

37. Household Surveys • Food utilisation: • Household heads were responsible for providing food • Perception of nutritious food (Maize meal and vegetable soup) • 75% of all households in the 3 communities had 3 meals in the day • Processing and Storage: • Cassava (Gari, Powder, dough; leave on farm) • Maize (Dough; Dried, sprayed and stored in bags) • Groundnut (Paste; Dried and stored in bags) • Pepper (Boiled and dried and store in sacks) • Fish (Smoked, Salted – can stay for about 10 years) • Certain cultural practices/taboos - e.g. pregnant women don’t eat ripe plantains; community members don’t eat certain fish species, snails and reptiles

38. Vulnerability Mapping

39. Vulnerability Mapping

40. Household assets in Afram Plains Source: Field study, 2008

41. Vulnerability Mapping Source: Field study, 2008

42. Adaptation Strategies • Future Adaptation strategies for floods/food shortages include: • Cultivate crops on uplands • Cultivate off-season vegetables along rivers • Cultivate maize during the minor season • Cultivate vegetable right after floods • Plant early in the season • Store food for emergencies • Create channels or gutters to improve drainage in farms and houses; • Build homes on high lands • Build block/brick houses with concrete foundation

43. Conclusion . Rains were better in the past, because there is a lot of intensity in rainfall currently. In addition the temperature has also increased. . Thus, Climate Change is impacting food systems in the study area: ·       Crop yields reduced due to variability in rainfall pattern . Rotten farm produce (Yam, Cassava, Vegetables) ·       Excessive heat is causing crops to wilt . Excessive heat is causing vegetables to ripe prematurely

44. Conclusion ·        One farming season instead of 2 seasons in the past ·        Streams and rivers drying-up ·        Snails and Mushrooms no longer in abundance due to excessive heat ·        Bush animals – Antelope, grass cutter, dear, bush rat no longer in abundance ·       Some species cocoyam, yellow yam no longer in abundance

45. Conclusion • Some communities are able to cope better than others • Household factors play a key role in determining vulnerability (see also Ziervogel et al. 2006) • Livelihood issues are linked to food security • Results could be a reflection of what pertains in farming communities with similar agro-ecological settings

46. Acknowledgements • United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) grant #CCP 07 08, Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation (ACCCA) Pilot Project on Food Security and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Afram Plains of Ghana • The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) grant # EEM-A-00-06-00014) for the Climate Change Learning Observatory Network in Ghana (CCLONG) Project