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Charles Darwin (1809-1882) HMS Beagle under Captain Robert Fitzroy

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slide3

In 1858, he read Wallace’s essay finding that it “contained exactly the same theory as mine.”He stated the center of darwinism as, “A struggle for existence inevitably follows from the high rate at which all organic beings tend to increase.. . . Hence, as more individuals are produced than can possibly survive, there must in every case be a struggle for existence, either one individual with another of the same species, or with the individuals of distinct species, or with the physical conditions of life. It is the doctrine of Malthus applied with manifold force to the whole animal and vegetable kingdoms; for in this case there can be no artificial increase of food, and no prudential restraint from marriage. Although some species may now be increasing. . . in numbers, all cannot do so for the world would not hold them.”

slide5

Neither Wallace nor Charles Darwin were present at the historic meeting of the Linnaean Society in July 1858 arranged by Lyell when papers attributable to each were brought to the attention of the wider scientific public. Wallace\'s paper was presented under the title "On the Tendency of Varieties to Depart Indefinitely from the Original Type. It is partly because Wallace was a strong socialist as Hume was perhaps an anarchist that brings Marx into the philosophic circle that included the evolutionists. Wallace supported many liberal causes like women’s suffrage and amazingly became a spiritualist.

slide7

In 1864, the International Working Men\'s Association was founded in London. The first volume of Das Kapital with Engels, Marx\'s most important work, appeared in 1867. Ultimately ill-health prevented him from completing 2 other volumes. Marx passed away peacefully in his armchair at 65 and lies buried in Highgate Cemetery in London.The philosophy of Marx inciudes this. The more the laborer labors, as well as the more powerful becomes the alien object world which he builds over himself, he himself becomes the poorer. His inner world has less. The same thing occurs in religion. The more people place faith in God, the less they retain in themselves.

slide9

Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace jointly had their works presented for them outlining a theory of evolution to the Linnaean Society in London in June 1858 that was vigorously supported by Huxley who called himself Darwin’s bulldog, protecting the ideas of the more retiring Darwin.In 1863 Huxley published Zoological Evidences as to Man\'s Place in Nature. The controversy flamed considerably, because mankind was viewed as the endproduct of the evolutionary processes. Huxley wrote essays on theology and philosophy from an agnostic viewpoint. He had coined this familiar word for those who believed that nothing is likely to be known of God or anything but material phenomena. This then is what Hume meant by skepticism and empiricism.

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The History. You MUST know this background to follow evolution and to understand social change which is of course so much more subtle than the US, French, Mexican & Russian revolutions. These enormous events destroyed the old upper classes to foster new ones. You need this background and more for “family planning !” We can dismiss all these pioneers of the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries once we grasp what those problems were, so different from our troubles highlighted by starvations and by HIV/AIDS.

slide11

Demographic transition. Why can’t developing countries today take advantage of demographic transitions? What skills can they offer? The rural skills mean nothing. Education becomes paramount as it was for Rousseau. Likely, they are agriculturally anchored in eroded and sometimes desertified soils without employment alternatives.Demographic transition refers to changes in population growth that occur when a country moves from high birth and death rates to low ones as industrialization begins. The changes take place in 4 stages of development:

slide12

Why can’t developing countries today take advantage of the demographic transition? a) Lack of trained personnel for industrial development and also health services, b) lack of education for life (industrial skills), c) lack of an essential energy base or a combination of factors, d) rapid population growths and the resulting poverty in shanty towns that prevent savings and investment, costing the state money and e) lack of financial resources (investments).

slide13

Malthus said population, that is at least the English one, increases geometrically, and food production additively. He seems right on the first and wrong on the second. Perhaps we need more skepticism and more empiricisim. England with 1.74 children per woman escapes his evolutionary model now so that our moralistic ‘eugenicist’ might be wrong on both counts..

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What have you learnt? Are we taking in too much contrasty information too fast? Possibly. Regardless, among the problems posed are: Will the eradication of some diseases make room for emerging ones ?Will one evil be replaced by another ?When some disease eradications are grandly successful will better health thereby raise the standard of living ? POVERTY WITH UNEMPLOYMENT OF THE UNEDUCATED MAY BE THE REAL PROBLEM.

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Approaching the new society The background of personalities and philosophiesshould be wellknown before proceeding to demographic theories and applications in the oncoming western or world society. Theoretical progress should produce material results that open up new applications which in turn lead to new problems and progress in research. African and Asian poverty-stricken countries do not have western or Christian antecedents. Are over 20 % of 7 plus billion people hungry? Asians living well do not have western cultural roots either!

slide16

The morality is changing, e. g., 1/3 Russian mothers are unmarried. Do you like these names for household positions? a) Respar: residing in the parental household (without a partner or spouse), b) Single: never married and living alone, c) Coh0: unmarried but cohabiting, no children, d) Coh+: unmarried but cohabiting, with children, e) Mar0: currently married, no children, f) Mar+N: currently married, with children, no premarital cohabitation, g) Mar+E: currently married, with children, premarital cohabitation h) FmNu: formerly married or cohabiting, now divorced, separated or widowed.

slide17

The global population is rocketing to where?

This graphic demonstrates the rocketing of England’s population, but the gross national product (GNP) also rocketed. England has about 57 million people. The human growth rate is flexible to be changed culturally. England has a low growth rate of 0.25 %, opposite to what Malthus thought. Countries like the Czech Republic & Poland have negative growth rates.

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What did Thomas Robert Malthus say?He noted that food production increases additively, while populations rise geometrically, and this latter part is a natural law. Darwin, Wallace, Huxley and Fisher (1930) followed Malthus. Mendelism (genetics) played its complex part. Genetics performed miracles in the production of corn that saved Nikolai Vavilov (xxxx; shot by stalinists in 1942) even if too late for other than his reputation, and it worked many more miracles that raised agricultural production, some as the green revolution. Sudden and common production jumps like 20 times by combined biotechnology and genetics are—of course—better than additive.

slide20

This biotechnology includes: a) Genetically engineered high-yielding crop varieties, b) Heterosis (hybrid vigor), c) Expansion of the cropland area, d) Drainage and irrigation, e) Cropping via capital inputs (loans), f) Fertilizer usage and g) Pesticide control. The US has even paid farmers not to produce food just as the Canadian government has been the only buyer of wheat, meaning that the western wheat farmer’s wage is paid by the Ontario industrialized taxpayer.

slide21

Sustainable? This term seems to belong to the affluent and cannot be taught to desertified nations and those of other harsh environments that, by overpopulation, are quiet beyond the miracle stage. Rural Haiti, like central Africa, proves Malthus right. Looking for croplands, Haitians chopped down their trees! Women fight for their place in water lines, having 4.5 children each. Malthusian application is viable in certain circumstances. What are these? Soil erosion? What else? Civil war?

slide22

The trouble is overpopulation. Anglican clergyman Thomas Robert Malthus in 1798 in his famous Essay on the Principle of Population wrote that unless humans can limit reproduction voluntarily through self-restraint, the population would be reduced by catastrophic events such as diseases, starvation, misery and wars. The moralistic connection of sex with drinking is obvious. NeoMalthusians have revived the views of his essay to form public policies about population growth.

slide23

The trouble is far from European culture and morality, not having a church nor institution to blame. Disease eradication could follow the amelioration of rural poverty, since sometimes hunger is the larger cause of misery with disease only contributory. To make things worse by having more mouths to feed is absurd. Where is misery found in abundance? In central & southern Africa with AIDS as the new component. 1/ Niger, 2/ Chad, 3/ Mali 4/ Somali, 5/ Liberia, 6/ Angola, 7/ Sierra Leone, 8/ Ethopia, 9/ Yemen and 10/ Benin have birth rates of 43-52 per 1000. Angola, Mozambique, Niger, Malawi and Zimbabwe have the highest death rates in the world. Life ends at 37 in Zambia.

slide25

Last thoughts.Although some problems are health problems, they may not be the primary ones when the intention is to raise the standard of living, beginning perhaps with employment and competitive industrial productivity in a world with robots. The new and seemingly permanent health problem is HIV/AIDS. AIDS is lowering the standard of living, and it is shortening life. The funding for communications and the educational problems of rural life like sex education for AIDS make things that much more difficult in this technology-based world.

slide26

For instance, condoms stop HIV transmissions.If these African nations cannot stop HIV on their own, they assuredly might be treated as lepers. That can mean no longer financed, or—again—treated as hopeless. The solution is in condoms. Fifteen billion dollars should PROMOTE CONDOMS at subsidized prices along with sex education. Is an enormous dollar dump going to eradicate HIV/AIDS or not?

slide27

a) Health achievements at high standards of living DEMON-STRATED BY LONGEVITY cannot be easily transferred to the rural poor anywhere. b) Wealth cannot be redistributed worldwide. c) When one demographic variable like total fertility rate is too high, the others, some redundant, will also demonstrate poverty. d) HIV/AIDS means more people with less longevity. e) Longevity is a product of excellent economies. f) 1 in 4 pregnant African women can have HIV, g) HIV is lowering birth rates.

slide28

High rates of both tuberculosis and HIV indicate that those living conditions and health services are hopeless. Is good money being thrown after bad ? Meanwhile, the same HIV people are starving. Are they the cause of twisted charity or is that just wars & corruption? What happened before HIV/AIDS surfaced in Africa is past history. What then is the major problem? it is AIDS. What is the solution? Condoms. WHAT IS NEEDED TO MAKE THE APPLICATION ? Again and again, the problem has been solved.

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