Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand
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Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand 2007/08– 2012/13. Summary Report. Patrick Heffer, IFA. 76 th IFA Annual Conference 19-21 May 2008, Vienna, Austria. Outlook for Biofuels. World Ethanol Output (Bg). World Biodiesel Output (Bg). Source: FAPRI.

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Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand

2007/08– 2012/13

Summary Report

Patrick Heffer, IFA

76th IFA Annual Conference

19-21 May 2008, Vienna, Austria


Outlook for biofuels
Outlook for Biofuels Demand

World Ethanol Output (Bg)

World Biodiesel Output (Bg)

Source: FAPRI


World cereal production mt
World Cereal Production Demand(Mt)

Source: USDA


Regional cereal production change 2008 vs 2007

+0.1% Demand

+0.7%

438 Mt

478 Mt

932 Mt

+13%

-4.8%

+8.3%

+78%

147 Mt

132 Mt

41 Mt

Regional Cereal ProductionChange 2008 vs. 2007 (%)

Source: FAO


World cereal production and utilization mt
World Cereal Production Demand and Utilization (Mt)

Source: FAO


World cereal stocks stock to use ratio
World Cereal Stocks DemandStock-to-Use Ratio

Source: FAO + USDA


Crop prices
Crop Prices Demand

Relative Price Evolution from 1995 to 2008

Index: January 1995 = 100

Price Prospects

Source: ABARE


Livestock projections
Livestock Projections Demand

Consumption of Livestock Products

Meat Production

Milk Production

Source: FAO


World fruit and vegetable production harvested area mha
World Fruit and Vegetable Production DemandHarvested Area (Mha)

Source: FAO


+3.1% p.a. Demand

+3.1%

N: +3.2%P2O5: +2.8%K2O: +3.0%

N: +3.6%P2O5: +2.7%K2O: +2.2%

World Fertilizer Demand Forecasts (Mt nutrients)

+4.1%

174.7

169.4

194.3

162.7


Evolution of regional fertilizer demand mt nutrients
Evolution of Regional DemandFertilizer Demand (Mt nutrients)

Two thirds of the total increase is expected to occur in East Asia and South Asia together


Estimates of global fertilizer use on biofuel crops mt nutrients
Estimates of Global Fertilizer Use Demand on Biofuel Crops (Mt nutrients)

4.2%

2.1%

1.9%



Thank you! Demand

www.fertilizer.org


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