Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand
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Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand 2007/08– 2012/13. Summary Report. Patrick Heffer, IFA. 76 th IFA Annual Conference 19-21 May 2008, Vienna, Austria. Outlook for Biofuels. World Ethanol Output (Bg). World Biodiesel Output (Bg). Source: FAPRI.

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Summary report

Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand

2007/08– 2012/13

Summary Report

Patrick Heffer, IFA

76th IFA Annual Conference

19-21 May 2008, Vienna, Austria


Outlook for biofuels

Outlook for Biofuels

World Ethanol Output (Bg)

World Biodiesel Output (Bg)

Source: FAPRI


World cereal production mt

World Cereal Production (Mt)

Source: USDA


Regional cereal production change 2008 vs 2007

+0.1%

+0.7%

438 Mt

478 Mt

932 Mt

+13%

-4.8%

+8.3%

+78%

147 Mt

132 Mt

41 Mt

Regional Cereal ProductionChange 2008 vs. 2007 (%)

Source: FAO


World cereal production and utilization mt

World Cereal Production and Utilization (Mt)

Source: FAO


World cereal stocks stock to use ratio

World Cereal StocksStock-to-Use Ratio

Source: FAO + USDA


Crop prices

Crop Prices

Relative Price Evolution from 1995 to 2008

Index: January 1995 = 100

Price Prospects

Source: ABARE


Livestock projections

Livestock Projections

Consumption of Livestock Products

Meat Production

Milk Production

Source: FAO


World fruit and vegetable production harvested area mha

World Fruit and Vegetable ProductionHarvested Area (Mha)

Source: FAO


Summary report

+3.1% p.a.

+3.1%

N: +3.2%P2O5: +2.8%K2O: +3.0%

N: +3.6%P2O5: +2.7%K2O: +2.2%

World Fertilizer Demand Forecasts (Mt nutrients)

+4.1%

174.7

169.4

194.3

162.7


Evolution of regional fertilizer demand mt nutrients

Evolution of Regional Fertilizer Demand (Mt nutrients)

Two thirds of the total increase is expected to occur in East Asia and South Asia together


Estimates of global fertilizer use on biofuel crops mt nutrients

Estimates of Global Fertilizer Use on Biofuel Crops (Mt nutrients)

4.2%

2.1%

1.9%


Summary report

Significant Change in Trends


Summary report

Thank you!

www.fertilizer.org


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