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ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate. Titike, Hussen , Prajeesh , and Suyash Targeted Training Activity ENSO and Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate ICTP 10 August 2012. Outline. Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models

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ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate

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Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate

Titike, Hussen, Prajeesh, and Suyash

Targeted Training Activity

ENSO and Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate

ICTP

10 August 2012


Outline

Outline

Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models

African climate in CMIP5-Models

Performance of CMIP5-Models

ENSO and SON Rainfall relation, EEA

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, Sahel

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, NEA


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

African climate in CMIP5-Models


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

Climate cont …


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

Climate cont …


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

Annual Cycle of Rainfall

(5- 16N, 30 – 40 E)

(10 - 20N, 10W – 20E)

NEA JJAS

Sahel JJAS

EEA SON

(5S - 5N, 35 – 45 E)


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

Interannual Variability (Sahel)

(10 - 20N, 10W – 20E)

(5 - 26N, 30 – 40E)

ENA

(5S - 5N, 35 – 45E)

EEA


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

Performance of CMIP5-Models

Power Spectrum analysis for Nino3 Index CMIP5 Models


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

correlation SONRainfall with Nino3 (EEA )


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

correlation JJAS Rainfall with Nino3 (NEA )


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

correlation JJAS Rainfall with Nino3 (Sahel )


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, NEA


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, Sahel


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

JJAS Elnino Composite


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

JJAS Lanina Composite


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

ENSO and SONRainfall relation, EEA


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

ENSO and SON Rainfall relation, EEA

SON Elnino Composite


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

SON Lanina Composite


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

  • MPI-ESM-MR

  • HadGE2–ES

  • IPSL-CM5A - MR

  • GFDL–CM3

  • CNRM

  • All the above models predict that the NINO 3.4 temperature, EEA precipitation and NEA precipitation would increase by the end of 21st century. However the models disagree over the projection for Sahel precipitation.

Based on our assessment we found the following models better in representing climatology and showing ENSO-African monsoon relations.


Enso african monsoon teleconnection in cmip5 models for current and future climate

Thank You


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