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ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate. Titike, Hussen , Prajeesh , and Suyash Targeted Training Activity ENSO and Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate ICTP 10 August 2012. Outline. Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models

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ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate

Titike, Hussen, Prajeesh, and Suyash

Targeted Training Activity

ENSO and Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate

ICTP

10 August 2012


Outline

Outline

Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models

African climate in CMIP5-Models

Performance of CMIP5-Models

ENSO and SON Rainfall relation, EEA

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, Sahel

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, NEA






Annual Cycle of Rainfall

(5- 16N, 30 – 40 E)

(10 - 20N, 10W – 20E)

NEA JJAS

Sahel JJAS

EEA SON

(5S - 5N, 35 – 45 E)


Interannual Variability (Sahel)

(10 - 20N, 10W – 20E)

(5 - 26N, 30 – 40E)

ENA

(5S - 5N, 35 – 45E)

EEA


Performance of CMIP5-Models

Power Spectrum analysis for Nino3 Index CMIP5 Models


correlation SONRainfall with Nino3 (EEA )






JJAS Elnino Composite


JJAS Lanina Composite


ENSO and SONRainfall relation, EEA



SON Lanina Composite


  • MPI-ESM-MR

  • HadGE2–ES

  • IPSL-CM5A - MR

  • GFDL–CM3

  • CNRM

  • All the above models predict that the NINO 3.4 temperature, EEA precipitation and NEA precipitation would increase by the end of 21st century. However the models disagree over the projection for Sahel precipitation.

Based on our assessment we found the following models better in representing climatology and showing ENSO-African monsoon relations.



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