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Post-Election Analysis of NEA’s 2008 Campaign Communications Among Members

Post-Election Analysis of NEA’s 2008 Campaign Communications Among Members. Michael Bocian Principal, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. Four Key Strategic Decisions That Guided Our Work. Key Strategic Decision #1. Define McCain in May while Obama and Clinton were slugging it out.

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Post-Election Analysis of NEA’s 2008 Campaign Communications Among Members

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  1. Post-Election Analysis of NEA’s 2008 Campaign Communications Among Members Michael Bocian Principal, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  2. Four Key Strategic Decisions That Guided Our Work Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  3. Key Strategic Decision #1 Define McCain in May while Obama and Clinton were slugging it out Out of touch with economic challenges 4 more years of George Bush Out of touch with public schools Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  4. Key Strategic Decision #2 Introduce Obama in the summer with heavy bio elements Use parental involvement to establish values Tackle questions of race, religion and patriotism Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  5. Key Strategic Decision #3 Center our message on the economy and the middle class McCain tax on employer sponsored health care Middle class tax cuts vs. tax breaks for millionaires Incentives to create jobs in America Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  6. Key Strategic Decision #4 Be more targeted in choosing which states to play in and which members/households to communicate with Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  7. The Record Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  8. Post Communication Movement Among MEMBERS Ohio Pennsylvania Florida North Carolina +34 +33 +26 +22 +24 +19 +12 0 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  9. Post Communication Movement Among MEMBERS Nevada Michigan Iowa New Mexico Virginia +46 +40 +38 +32 +30 +32 +31 +24 +30 +25 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  10. Post Communication Movement Among MEMBERS New Hampshire Colorado Missouri Minnesota Oregon +52 +55 +52 +51 +47 +50 +41 +42 +44 +41 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  11. Post Communication Movement Among HOUSEHOLDS Ohio Nevada North Carolina Pennsylvania +19 +16 +10 +7 +9 +12 -1 -11 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  12. Post Communication Movement Among HOUSEHOLDS Michigan Missouri Virginia Florida +32 +18 +19 +17 +16 +14 +9 +13 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  13. Post Communication Movement Among HOUSEHOLDS Colorado Iowa Minnesota New Hampshire +24 +22 +25 +17 +26 +23 +29 +24 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  14. Obama Vote Compared to Kerry’s in 2004 MEMBERS Ohio Pennsylvania Michigan Nevada +32 +30 +19 +26 +19 +24 +16 +1 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  15. Obama Vote Compared to Kerry’s in 2004 MEMBERS Florida Iowa New Hampshire Minnesota +46 +52 +48 +49 +45 +34 +42 +29 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  16. Senate Races MEMBERS New Hampshire Senate Oregon Senate Minnesota Senate New Mexico Senate Colorado Senate +59 +48 +46 +43 +50 +34 +31 +32 +18 +14 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  17. Senate Races HOUSEHOLDS Minnesota Senate Colorado Senate New Hampshire Senate +33 +28 +26 +9 +25 -4 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  18. Governors Races/North Carolina MEMBERS Missouri Gubernatorial North Carolina Gubernatorial North Carolina Senate +56 +60 +42 +43 +42 +3 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  19. Governors Races/North Carolina HOUSEHOLDS Missouri Gubernatorial North Carolina Gubernatorial North Carolina Senate +38 +26 +19 +18 +8 -1 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  20. Huge Improvement on Oregon Ballot Measures Now I would like to ask you about the Oregon ballot Initiatives. Did you vote yes, in favor of the measure, or no to oppose it? +1 Measure 56: Provides that May and November property tax elections are decided by a majority of voters voting +44 -47 Measure 58: Prohibits teaching public school student in language other than English for more than two years. -73 Measure 60: Teacher Classroom Performance, Not Seniority, Determines Pay Raises; Most Qualified Teachers Retained, Regardless of Seniority -69 -91 -6 Measure 64: Penalizes Person, Entity For Using Funds Collected With Public Resource For Political Purpose -58 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  21. Post Colorado Ballot Measures - Members Let me ask about Amendment 54, also known as Campaign Contributions from Certain Government Contractors. Did you vote YES to enact this initiative or NO to reject this initiative, or did you not vote on this amendment? Let me ask about Amendment 49, also known as Colorado Limitation on Public Payroll Deductions. Did you vote YES to enact this amendment or NO to reject this amendment, or did you not vote on this amendment? Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  22. The Decision Process – Targeted Members/Households Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  23. How Persuadable were Our Targets? Percentage among Barack Obama supporters who said they considered voting for John McCain Greenberg Quinlan Rosner *Note: Data from Democracy Corps National Survey

  24. How Persuadable were Our Targets? Percentage among John McCain supporters who said they considered voting for Barack Obama Greenberg Quinlan Rosner *Note: Data from Democracy Corps National Survey

  25. Obama Voters Cast an Affirmative Vote In the election for President did you mainly vote FOR Barack Obama or AGAINST John McCain? In the election for President did you mainly vote FOR John McCain or AGAINST Barack Obama? Obama Voters McCain Voters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  26. The Issue and Messages – Targeted Members/Households Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  27. Economic Concerns Dominate Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that people have. Please tell me which ONE of these you think the President and Congress should be paying the most attention to. 59 27 25 20 17 16 12 4 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  28. Change, Economy-Middle Class Drove Obama’s Support Now thinking about everything you've heard during the campaign, what was the most persuasive reason to vote FOR Barack Obama? Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  29. Economic & Education Specifics Stood Out for Obama Regardless of who you voted for, thinking about everything you heard during the campaign, which ONE of the following was the most persuasive reason to vote for Barack Obama? 27 26 20 19 18 15 13 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  30. Desire for Change Drove McCain Concerns And what was the biggest concern you had about John McCain? Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  31. Economic Specifics Stood Out About McCain Regardless of who you voted for, thinking about everything you heard during the campaign, which ONE of the following was the most persuasive reason to vote against John McCain? 27 25 20 18 18 12 9 4 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  32. Experience Powered McCain’s Support Now thinking about everything you've heard during the campaign, what was the most persuasive reason to vote FOR John McCain? Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  33. Experience Main Question About Obama And what was the biggest concern you had about Barack Obama? Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  34. Means of Communication – Targeted Members/Households Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  35. Penetration of NEA Communications Do you remember receiving any mail/phone calls/e-mails/visits from representatives of the state affiliate or the National Education Association about the election for President or other offices? Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  36. Nearly Half of Targeted Homes Recalled More Than 5 Mail Pieces How much mail would you say you received from the state NEA or National Education Association? Did you receive just a few pieces, about four or five pieces, six to ten pieces, or ten or more pieces of mail from the state NEA or National Education Association? Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  37. Colorado Face-to-Face Program Noteworthy Do you remember any representatives of the state NEA or the National Education Association speaking at meetings or visiting your work place to discuss the election for President or other offices? Greenberg Quinlan Rosner *Note: Values denote those that responded “YES”

  38. Volunteer Activities Mostly for Candidates, Not Union Most people don't have the time to volunteer in elections. How about you? Did you participate as a volunteer in this year's elections for an organization or an individual candidate? Greenberg Quinlan Rosner *Note: Values denote those that responded “YES”

  39. Lessons Learned – What We Did Well • Better targeting • Pulled out of states that were becoming non-competitive • Delivered more communications to the persuadable members with modeling • Turnout optimization modeling • Important sequencing – defined McCain at the right time, introduced Obama at the right time, offered a contrast at the right time • Delivered a message that fit into the candidate’s narrative • Offered a real narrative with compelling visuals and creative ideas, rather than a list of issue positions • Innovative new ideas (e.g., creative websites) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  40. Lessons Learned – What We Can Do Better • More fully develop our face-to-face program and learn from best practices • Better understand how to communicate with households Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

  41. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

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