Sref applications at awc
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SREF Applications at AWC. Dr. Steverino Silberberg Aviation Weather Center May 13, 2008 4 th Ensemble Users Workshop. Aviation SREF Algorithms. AWC- developed Externally-developed RUC-based deterministic/ensemble guidance icing (CIP, FIP), turb (GTG), RUC conv prob Collaboration

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SREF Applications at AWC

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Sref applications at awc

SREF Applications at AWC

Dr. Steverino Silberberg

Aviation Weather Center

May 13, 2008

4th Ensemble Users Workshop


Aviation sref algorithms

Aviation SREF Algorithms

  • AWC-developed

  • Externally-developed

    • RUC-based deterministic/ensemble guidance

      • icing (CIP, FIP), turb (GTG), RUC conv prob

  • Collaboration

    • AWC-EMC (Binbin Zhou, Jun Du)

    • AWC-SPC (David Bright)

    • AWC-GSD (RUCsters: Stan Benjamin, Steve Weygandt)


Aviation specific sref guidance

Aviation-Specific SREF Guidance

  • Flight Restriction (Ceiling/Visibility)

    • Ceiling (4500’, 3000’, 2000’, 1000’, 500’, <500’, mean, cloud top)

    • Visibility (5, 3, 1, 0.5 st mi)

    • VFR (>3000’ and > 5 st mi)

    • MVFR (1000’<ceiling3000’; 3 vis5 st mi)

    • IFR (500’ceiling<1000’; 1vis<3 st mi)

    • LIFR (<500’ and/or <1 st mi)


Aviation specific sref guidance1

Aviation-Specific SREF Guidance

  • Cloud Amount

    • Total mean

    • Max mean

    • Min mean

    • Clear prob

    • Scattered prob

    • Broken prob

    • Overcast prob


Aviation specific sref guidance2

Aviation-Specific SREF Guidance

  • 10 m wind

    • Speed & direction mean

    • > 10, 20, 30 kt prob

  • Low-level wind shear (lowest 2000’ agl)

    • Sfc – 2000’ mean

    • Severe prob


Aviation specific sref guidance3

Aviation-Specific SREF Guidance

  • Convective Cloud

    • Mean and spread

    • Severe prob

  • RUC Convective Probability

  • Jet Stream

    • 4500’; 18,000’; 34,000’

  • Icing Probability

    • FL000, 030, 060, 090, 120, 150, 180, 240


Aviation specific sref guidance4

Aviation-Specific SREF Guidance

  • Turbulence probability

    • Light-moderate, moderate, severe

    • FL180 - 420

  • Tropopause height/temp

  • Freezing level height

  • Precipitation type

  • Fog occurrence


Aviation sref dataflow

Aviation SREF Dataflow

  • NAWIPS:

    • Individual ensemble members only

    • Would like Aviation SREF fields added to mean, prob, and spread GEMPAK files for NAWIPS


Aviation sref feedback

Aviation SREF Feedback

  • Reduce/access/calibrate uncertainty

  • Reduce/represent model error

  • Provide distribution characteristics, etc.

  • Algorithm enhancements, changes

  • Hourly output F00-F24

  • Add aviation-specific guidance to global ensemble

  • Add mountain obscuration guidance


Aviation sref feedback1

Aviation SREF Feedback

  • Application to AWC production & products

    • FAA requires deterministic aviation forecast products – except for probabilistic collaborative convective forecast product (CCFP)


Aviation sref verification validation

Aviation SREF Verification/Validation

  • Verification/Validation is difficult

    • PIREPS  difficult to use for turb, icing

  • NCEP FVS works for regular weather not for aviation weather

    • low level wind shear has been verified in FVS

    • adapt FVS to aviation

  • Collaborate with RTVS for aviation verification/validation


Summary

Summary

  • Robust aviation-specific SREF guidance

  • SREF used primarily for Cb forecasts

    • FAA requires deterministic forecasts

  • Add aviation SREF fields to mean, spread, prob files in GEMPAK

  • Need to calibrate aviation SREF fields, represent model error

  • Excellent collaboration between AWC and EMC, SPC, and RUC

  • Verification/validation issue:

    • Difficult using PIREPs

    • Collaboration between FVS and RTVS for verification/validation


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