Impacts of climate change on agro climatic indices in eastern canada
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Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada. Sam Gameda and Andy Bootsma Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Ottawa. CGCM1 Mean Temperature Change Summer - JJA 2050s. Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group. CGCM1 Precipitation Change Summer - JJA 2050s.

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Impacts of climate change on agro climatic indices in eastern canada

Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada

Sam Gameda and Andy Bootsma

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Ottawa


Cgcm1 mean temperature change summer jja 2050s

CGCM1 Mean Temperature Change Eastern CanadaSummer - JJA 2050s

Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group


Cgcm1 precipitation change summer jja 2050s
CGCM1 Precipitation Change Eastern CanadaSummer - JJA 2050s

Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group


Gcms predict increases in climate variables e g temperature precipitation
GCMs Predict Increases in Climate Variables Eastern Canada(e.g. Temperature, Precipitation)

  • How will these changes affect Agro-climatic indices?

  • What are the potential impacts on crop production?


Atlantic canada
Atlantic Canada Eastern Canada


Crop Heat Units (CHU) Eastern Canada

Average Crop Heat Units



Water Deficit Eastern Canada


Potential aci changes
Potential ACI changes: Eastern Canada


Implications for atlantic canada
Implications for Atlantic Canada Eastern Canada

Significant potential for Large-scale:

  • expansion in corn and soybean areas

  • Reduction of areas under small-grain cereals (e.g. barley)


Production scenario
Production scenario Eastern Canada


Quebec ontario
Quebec & Ontario Eastern Canada


Potential aci changes1
Potential ACI changes: Eastern Canada


Implications for quebec ontario
Implications for Quebec & Ontario Eastern Canada

  • Some areas presently marginal or unsuitable for grain corn and soybean production will become suitable for these crops.

  • Areas presently well-suited for grain corn and soybean production will be suited for longer-season hybrids, with potentially higher yields


Some considerations
Some Considerations Eastern Canada

  • These findings are based on comparisons of current 30-year climate normals (averages) with those from an equivalent future 30-year period

  • Significant changes in variability and extreme events are anticipated under climate change


Projected 24-h Rainfall Events Averaged over Canada Eastern Canada

(Source: CGCM1A - Kharin and Zwiers 2000)


Summary
Summary Eastern Canada

Likely consequences of climate change on agriculture in Eastern Canada:

  • Significant increases in areas under corn and soybean in Atlantic Canada.

  • Significant increase in yields of corn and soybean in Quebec and Ontario

  • Expected increases in variability and extreme events could have significant impact on seasonal variability and risks to production


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