Quantifying the benefits of different types of protection for freshwater biodiversity
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Quantifying the benefits of different types of protection for freshwater biodiversity. Eren Turak,Simon Ferrier, Michael Drielsma, Glenn Manion, Tom Barrett, Edwina Mesley Janet Stein,Gavin Doyle and Geoff Gordon. FPAs and the conservation of freshwater biodiversity.

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Quantifying the benefits of different types of protection for freshwater biodiversity

Quantifying the benefits of different types of protection for freshwater biodiversity

Eren Turak,Simon Ferrier, Michael Drielsma, Glenn Manion, Tom Barrett, Edwina Mesley Janet Stein,Gavin Doyle and Geoff Gordon


Fpas and the conservation of freshwater biodiversity
FPAs and the conservation of freshwater biodiversity for freshwater biodiversity

  • Will they make a difference?

  • How much?

  • How do FPAs compare with other interventions?

  • How will they be affected by change?


Scenario planning dealing with uncertainty and uncontrollability
Scenario planning: Dealing with uncertainty and uncontrollability

Adaptive management

High

Scenario planning

Uncertainty

Optimal control

Hedging

Low

Controllable

Uncontrollable

Controllability

Peterson G.D., Cumming G.S., Carpenter S.R. 2002. Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conservation Biology, Pages 358-366.


Forecasting the persistence of freshwater biodiversity
Forecasting the persistence of freshwater biodiversity uncontrollability

  • Scenarios: alternative futures

  • Landscape/ riverscape scale evaluations

  • Best spatial data and knowledge

  • Trial in the Hunter region, SE Australia.


Current local disturbance uncontrollability

Future local disturbance

Future

Present

Scenarios

Statistical model for predicting river biodiversity at any location

Cumulative disturbance

Future cumulative disturbance

Future biodiversity

Biodiversity (river sites)

Ecological river type maps

River type evaluation

Outputs

Species-area relationships

River type similarity matrices

Regional evaluation


1.0 uncontrollability

0.8

Observed

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Predicted

Regression model

Relating biodiversity measures (AUSRIVAS O/E values) to disturbance*

Adjusted r2= 0.745

*Stein, J.L, Stein J.A., Nix, H.A. 2002 Spatial analysis of anthropogenic river disturbance at regional and continental scales: identifying the wild rivers of Australia Landscape and Urban Planning, 60, 1-25.


Predicted river condition uncontrollability

Current AUSRIVAS O/E values as the proportion of the predicted pristine condition



Priority maps
Priority maps 172 classes)

  • Landuse, Infrastructure and settlement factors hypothetically changed

  • Catchment protection priority

    • Degraded condition simulated by changing all factors to 1.

  • Catchment restoration priority:Improvement in condition was simulated by changing factors as follows

    If factor value ≤ 0.2 then it was adjusted to 0.

    If factor value > 0.2 then 0.1 was subtracted from factor value

  • River section conservation priority:

    • Priority = BDI with river section-BDI without river section/ area of sub-catchment





Spatial prioritisation of investment by Catchment Management Authorities:

Alternative scenarios for selecting 25,000 ha of cleared land for revegetation

Terrestrial: Based on priority map for terrestrial biodiversity. BAU: Business as usual (based on existing investment patterns). River: Based on priority map for terrestrial biodiversity


Fpa paradigms
FPA paradigms Authorities:

  • Protected area categories (IUCN) unsuitable for freshwaters.

  • Place based strategies proposed (Abell. et al 2007)

    • Freshwater focal areas

    • Critical management zones

    • Catchment management zones

  • Choice may be dictated by monetary and social cost.

Abell, R., Allan, J. D. & Lehner, B. (2007) Unlocking the potential of protected areas for freshwaters. Biological Conservation,134, 48-63.


Biodiversity forecasting and place based strategies
Biodiversity forecasting and place-based strategies Authorities:

  • Freshwater focal areas

    • River section conservation priority

    • Endangered species, communities, ecosystems

    • HCVAE ‘s based on other criteria

  • Critical management zones

    • Catchment protection and restoration priority

  • Catchment management zones

    • Catchment protection and restoration priority


Conclusion
Conclusion Authorities:

  • The potential effects on river biodiversity, of every type of management action or disturbance, at any location can be predicted.

  • Freshwater Protected Areas should be considered in the context of Integrated catchment management (ICM).


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