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NCEP Update: Review of Progress in Operational Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin”. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP University of Maryland November 2, 2006. Overview. Define NCEP

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Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

NCEP Update: Review of Progress in Operational Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin”

Louis W. Uccellini

Director, NCEP

University of Maryland

November 2, 2006


Overview

Overview

  • Define NCEP

  • “Seamless Suite” of forecast products: climate/weather linkage

  • Recent Advances

    • Seasonal to Interannual/Climate Forecast System

    • Ocean Prediction/HYCOM

    • “Medium range” Days 4-7/North American Ensemble Forecast System

    • Days1-3: Winter Weather Desk/Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System

    • Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

  • Performance Metrics

  • Future

    • Community Models

    • Multi-model Ensembles

  • New building

    • NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (Maryland)


Define ncep

Define NCEP


The path to noaa s seamless suite of products and forecast services

Central

Guidance

Local

Offices

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

Observe

To Serve Diverse

Customer Base

e.g., National Association of

State Energy Officials,

Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, …

Process

Products & Forecast Services

Respond & Feedback

NCEP

Distribute

IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center

Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Feedback


The environmental forecast process

The Environmental Forecast Process

Observations

Data

Assimilation

Analysis

Model Forecast

Numerical

Forecast

System

Post-processed Model Data

Forecaster

User (public, industry…)


Ncep supports the noaa seamless suite of climate weather and ocean products

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

Mission:NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

Aviation Weather Center

NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Space Environment Center

Total FTE: 430

161 Contractors/47 Visitors

Storm Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

NCEP Employment Summary

  • Civil Service Positions

    • 430 civil servant positions

    • Average 32 hires/year at all levels

    • 2-4 entry-level hires/year

  • Contract Positions

    • Average 140 contractors/year (over last 4 years)

    • Currently have 161 contractors

    • Approximately 28 contractor vacancies/year

  • Student Programs

    • Average number of student interns - 6 (SCEP/STEP) http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm)

    • 16 Summer hires in 2006 through various programs (http://epp.noaa.gov/ , http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/Hollings_info.html )


What does ncep do

Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual

El Nino – La Nina Forecast

Weather Forecasts to Day 7

Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather

Aviation (Turbulence, Icing)

High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

What Does NCEP Do?

“From the Sun to the Sea”

  • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

  • International and National Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts

  • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

  • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

  • Transition Test Beds Being Developed throughout NCEP


Service science linkage with the outside community

EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

CPCClimate Test Bed

TPCJoint Hurricane Test Bed

HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed*

SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

SECSolar Test Bed

AWCFAA Aviation Test Bed with NCAR RAP*

OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

Service – Science Linkagewith the Outside Community

* Under development


Seamless suite of forecast products climate weather linkage

Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Climate-Weather Linkage


Noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

Energy

Health

Reservoir Control

Space Operation

State/Local Planning

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Protection of Life & Property

Environment

Fire Weather

Flood Mitigation & Navigation

Transportation

Service Center Perspective

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

CPC

2 Week

Climate/Weather

Linkage

6-10 Day Forecast

1 Week

NDFD, Days 4 -7

HPC

OPC

TPC

Days

  • Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3

  • Tropical Storms to Day 5

  • Severe Weather to Day 3

SPC

AWC

SEC

Hours

Minutes


Noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather1

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

Energy

Health

Reservoir Control

Space Operation

State/Local Planning

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Protection of Life & Property

Environment

Fire Weather

Flood Mitigation & Navigation

Transportation

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

Climate Forecast System

2 Week

North American Ensemble

Forecast System

Climate/Weather

Linkage

1 Week

Global Forecast System

Days

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Ocean Model

Hurricane Model

North American Forecast

Hours

Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

Minutes

Dispersion Models for DHS


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies

Forecast

Ensemble

Hurricane

HYCOM

Ocean

NAEFS

GFDL

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

ETA

RSM

Dispersion

Global

Global

Data

Assimilation

SREF

GFS

Sev

Wx

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

Regional

Climate

N

D

A

S

CFS

NAM – WRF

NMM

MOM3

Air Quality

NOAH Land Surface Model

Rapid Update Cycle

L D A S


Computing capability

Computing Capability

Primary Weather $13.9 M

Primary Climate $5.3 M

Backup $7.2 M

Total: $26.4 M

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

  • Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily

  • Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec

  • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day

  • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)

  • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)

  • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)

  • 3x upgrade scheduled for 2006 4th Q delivery


Recent advances

Recent Advances


Noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather2

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

Energy

Health

Reservoir Control

Space Operation

State/Local Planning

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Protection of Life & Property

Environment

Fire Weather

Flood Mitigation & Navigation

Transportation

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

Climate Forecast System

2 Week

North American Ensemble

Forecast System

1 Week

HYCOM

Ocean

Model

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Days

Hours

Minutes


The ncep coupled climate forecast system implemented august 24 2004

The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System(implemented August 24, 2004)

  • Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03)

  • T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical

  • Recent upgrades in model physics

    • Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)

    • cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)

    • gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)

    • cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)

1.Atmospheric component

2.Oceanic component

  • GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998)

  • 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers

  • Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N)

  • Free surface

3.Coupled model

  • Once-a-day coupling

  • Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology

4.Calibrated on past 38 years


Climate forecast system availability

Climate Forecast System Availability

  • Real-time 2x daily, 9-month forecasts, monthly ensemble of 40-60 members.

  • 15-member reforecasts per month (1981–2005)

    • Calibration

    • Skill estimates

    • Analog and statistical forecasts

  • The website for real time data retrieval is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst

  • The climatological data is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/

  • Complete documentation available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf

7 day average centered on March 8


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

Priorities:

  • Improve Climate Forecast System

  • Assess Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System

  • Fully Utilize Climate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System

  • Develop Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support

Mission:To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research communityto improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/


Current projects by programmatic theme

Current Projects By Programmatic Theme:

  • NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System Improvements

  • Ocean Component of the NCEP ENSO CFS (PI: McPhaden, PMEL)

  • Improvement of the GODAS at NCEP (PI’s: Xue and Behringer, NCEP)

  • Using Initial Tendency Errors to Reduce Systematic Errors (PI: Delsole, COLA)

  • Development of Neural Network Emulations of Model Physics for CFS (PI: M. Fox-Rabinovitz, UMD)

  • NCEP Component of the NOAA Core Project for GAPP (PI: K. Mitchell, NCEP)

  • The NAME Climate Process Team (PI: J. Schemm, NCEP)

  • Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System

  • Infrastructure for Multi-model Ensembles at the NOAA CTB (PI’s: Leetmaa, GFDL; Lord, NCEP)

  • Explore MME with international operational centers

  • Climate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System

  • Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS) / NAME Data Impact (PI: K. Mo, NCEP)

  • Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support

  • Consolidation of Multi method Seasonal Forecasts at CPC (PI: van den Dool, NCEP)

  • A Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System for the United States (PI: K. Mo, NCEP)

  • 5) Assess development work, upgrade the CFS in FY10 and improve CFS products.


Ocean prediction

Ocean Prediction

  • NCEP to provide “backbone” support for operational delivery of ocean model forecasts

    • In response to NOAA Science Advisory Board Report


Noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather3

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

Energy

Health

Reservoir Control

Space Operation

State/Local Planning

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Protection of Life & Property

Environment

Fire Weather

Flood Mitigation & Navigation

Transportation

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

Climate Forecast System

2 Week

North American Ensemble

Forecast System

1 Week

HYCOM

Ocean

Model

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Days

Hours

Minutes


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

Observations

NASA-NOAA-DOD

JCSDA

AMSR, GOES,

AIRS, JASON, WindSat,

MODIS

Advanced

ODA Techniques

Satellite

(AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT)

In situ

(ARGO, Buoys, Ships)

Data Cutoff

CFS: 2 week data cutoff

RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff

OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION

OCEAN FORECAST

CLIMATE FORECAST

CFS-GODAS

NCO/ODA

EMC

NOPP-JPL (ECCO)

RT-OFS-GODAE

NOPP

EMC

Shared history, coding, and data processing

OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS

Climate Forecast SystemReal-Time Ocean Forecast System

HYCOM  HOME

MOM-3  MOM-4  HOME

http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/


Real time ocean prediction with hycom

Real-Time Ocean Prediction with HYCOM

  • Goal: to develop and implement operational, high resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global Oceans and Basins

  • NCEP Partners with

    • University of Miami/RSMAS

    • NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC

    • NOAA PMEL, AOML

    • Los Alamos National Laboratory

    • Others (international, commercial)

  • Hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean model (called Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model– HYCOM)

  • Implemented December 2005

Chesapeake Bay


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

RT-OFS

Products


North american ensemble forecast system

North American Ensemble Forecast System


Noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather4

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

Energy

Health

Reservoir Control

Space Operation

State/Local Planning

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Protection of Life & Property

Environment

Fire Weather

Flood Mitigation & Navigation

Transportation

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

Climate Forecast System

2 Week

North American Ensemble

Forecast System

1 Week

HYCOM

Ocean

Model

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Days

Hours

Minutes


North american ensemble forecast system1

North American Ensemble Forecast System

International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products

  • Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA

    • Now:CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 56/day out to 16 days

    • ’07 – CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days

  • Generates products for

    • Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia,

      media, private sector, …

    • Specialized users: hydrologic applications in all three countries

    • End users: forecasts for public distribution

      in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)

  • Future activities

    • Adding products (probabilistic in nature)

    • Incorporating ensemble data from

      other centers (e.g., FNMOC)

    • Unified evaluation/verification procedures

After bias correction

Probabilistic skill extended

1-3 days

Raw ensemble


Naefs products

NAEFS Products

  • NAEFS basic product list

    • 11 functionalities

      • Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc.

    • 50 variables

      • U,v,t,z,CAPE, precip type, etc.

    • 7 domains

      • Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa

  • Over 600 products requested by users (will be supplied via priority order)

    • Graphics

      • Available on NAWIPS at NCEP Centers

    • Grids

      • NAWIPS

      • ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod

      • NDGD in planning phase (Aug 07)


Short range ensemble forecast system

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System


Noaa seamless suite of forecast products spanning climate and weather5

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

Energy

Health

Reservoir Control

Space Operation

State/Local Planning

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Protection of Life & Property

Environment

Fire Weather

Flood Mitigation & Navigation

Transportation

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

Climate Forecast System

2 Week

North American Ensemble

Forecast System

1 Week

HYCOM

Ocean

Model

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Days

Hours

Minutes


Short range ensemble forecast

Short Range Ensemble Forecast

  • 21 members twice per day

  • 87 hrs from 9 and 21Z

  • Resolution 32km/60 levels

  • Mean and spread charts available for forecaster use

  • Developing products on probability of snow and ice accumulation

  • http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html

0.01” snow


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

SREF Upgrades

  • FY2006

  • Added six members twice per day (WRF ARW & WRF NMM) (Dec ‘05)

  • Run SREF 4 times per day (03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC) (June, 2006)

  • Implement Grid Based Bias Correction

  • Improve Probabilistic verification

  • Develop spread information

  • Add WRF BUFR Files

  • Implement ensemble mean BUFR files


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

SREF Enhancement with 6 WRF-based Members

Chance that truth is

outside ensemble range

RMS Error

15 member

21 member


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

New Impact Graphics from SREF

  • Probability event will last more than 12, 24, 48 hrs

  • Probability visibility will be reduced to 1/2, 1/4, or 1/8 mile in winter precip

  • Probability winter precip rate will be more than 1, 2, or 3" per hr

  • Probability road sensor will detect winter precip (relative to normal) “snow on road”

  • Probability Blizzard Criteria will be met

  • Probability Freezing Rain .01" or more will accumulate on any surface

  • Probability NWS Winter Storm Warning criteria will be met (under construction)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/


Nws winter weather desk

NWS Winter Weather Desk

  • Time line: Sep 15 – April 1

  • Participants

    • NCEP HPC

      • Provide SREF based Winter Wx guidance

      • Collaborate with WFOs (Chat Room Technology)

    • WFOs

      • All CONUS WFOs

      • Use guidance from NCEP to produce coordinated Winter Storm Watches/Warnings

  • Products: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

    • 24 h probability (low, moderate, high) of meeting/exceeding 4”, 8”, 12” snow, 0.25” freezing rain (for day 1, 2, 3)

    • 72h Low tracks graphic and discussion


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

12Z, Feb 11, 2006

12Z, Feb 10, 2006

12Z, Feb 12, 2006

12Z, Feb 13, 2006

Daily Weather Map Web Site - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dwm/dwm.shtml


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

≥ 4 inches

≥ 8 inches

Day 2 Snow Accum Probability

Valid 00Z Feb 12 - 00Z Feb 13

≥ 12 inches


Regional stats

Regional Stats

* Oct - Mar


Five order of magnitude increase in satellite data over next ten years

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

Five Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten Years

Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count

2005 210 M obs

2003-4 125 M obs

Level 2 radar data 2 B

2002 100 M obs

Count (Millions)

1990

2000

2010

2010-10%of obs


Jcsda mission and vision

JCSDA Mission and Vision

  • Mission: Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate analysis and prediction models

  • Near-term Vision: A weather and climate analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations

  • Long-term Vision: An environmental analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively use the integrated observations of the GEOSS – and be ready for NPOESS at “Day 1” after launch


Jcsda major accomplishments

JCSDA Major Accomplishments

  • Common assimilation infrastructure at NOAA and NASA

  • Community radiative transfer model V2 released

  • Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system

  • Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers

  • Operational Implementations Include:

  • Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data usage over high latitudes – improved forecasts

  • MODIS winds, polar regions, - improved forecasts

  • AIRS radiances – improved forecasts

  • New generation, physically based SST analysis - Improved SST

  • Preparation for advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/MHS), DMSP (SSMIS), COSMIC GPS data, EOS AMSR-E, GOES-R

  • Impact studies of POES MHS, EOS AIRS/MODIS, Windsat, DMSP SSMIS……. on NWP through EMC parallel experiments


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

Figure 3(b). 500hPa Z Anomaly Correlations for the GFS with (Ops.+AIRS) and without (Ops.) AIRS data, Northern hemisphere, January 2004


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

Impact of AIRS increased spatial data density/improved QC

(Snow, SSI/eo/April 2005/nw)


Performance metrics models

Performance Metrics-- Models --


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

GFS Upgrade

GFS Upgrade


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

Number of Hits (Millions)

Comms

Upgrade

2006

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Performance metrics forecasters

Performance Metrics-- Forecasters --


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

(DOC GPRA goal)

HPC Forecasters Add Value

Models provide basis for improvement

Correlations

Of HPC with:

Eta: 0.99

GFS: 0.74

NGM: 0.85


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

Day 4 Gridded Temperature Forecast

Min Temp

Max Temp

Valid November 6, 2006


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

Major Upgrades in Global and

Hurricane Numerical models

Advances Related

To USWRP


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

Day 7

Day 5

Day 3

In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill


Future

Future

  • Community Models

  • Multi-Model Ensembles


Future1

Future

Explicit Cores

(e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)

  • Community models

    • Weather Research Forecast model

  • Developmental Test Center (Boulder)

    • Outreach to academic community

    • Assessment of new model components

  • Major implementation – replaced Eta in June 06

C

M

I

NCAR

ARW

NCEP

NMM


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

Forecast

Model Suite of the Future (2007-2008)

Ensemble

Hurricane

HYCOM

Ocean

NAEFS

WRF

G

G

S

I

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

ETA

RSM

Dispersion

Global

SREF

GFS

Sev

Wx

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

Climate

R

G

S

I

Regional

CFS

NAM - WRF

MOM3

Chem WRF

Air Quality

NOAH Land Surface Model

Rapid Refresh

WRF

L D A S


Multi model ensembles issue

Multi-Model Ensembles Issue

  • In 5-10 years will all forecasts be based on multi-model ensemble approach?

    • Climate Forecast System

    • North American Ensemble Forecast System

    • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System

    • Oceans

    • Space Weather

  • Answer(s) will have enormous implications for NCEP operational computer allocations


Multi model ensembles

Multi-Model Ensembles

  • Enormous implications for NCEP links to the research community

  • How do we link all the players?

    • Operational centers

    • NCAR/NASA/DOE/Universities

  • How do we link data assimilation infrastructure (all data types)?

    • Ensemble-based Kalman Filter

    • 3D or 4D Var

  • How do we factor into transition process?

    • Research to Operations AND Operations to Research

  • Many issues will influence NCEP’s participation in THORPEX (Zoltan Toth, focal point)


Noaa center for weather and climate prediction

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF

Includes housing 850+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists

5 NCEP Centers

NESDIS research and satellite services

OAR Air Resources Laboratory

Begin move to new facility September ’07; complete by Feb ’08

Space for 40 visitors

Groundbreaking occurred for March 13, 2006


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

NOAA Center for

Weather and

Climate Prediction

NORTH


Summary

Summary

  • NCEP spanning “Sun to the Sea”; many new programmatic areas (oceans, air quality, space weather…)

  • Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist

  • NCEP is uniquely positioned to handle transition issues from research to operations

  • Actively engaged with the research community

    • Test beds

    • Experiments (NAME, THORPEX)

    • Other programs (USWRP, CLIVAR, …)

  • Still consider NCEP to be an underutilized entity by the research community


Appendix

Appendix


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Other Agencies

&

International

Effort

Service

Centers

Field

Offices

EMC

NOAA

Research

NCO

EMC

Observation

System

Life cycle

Support

Service Centers

User

OPS

Test Beds

JCSDA

CTB

WRF DTC

JHT

Operations

R&D

Delivery

Transition from Research to Operations

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

Concept of Operations

Requirements

Criteria

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

R&D

1

  • Large “volume” of R&D,

  • funded through AOs,

  • Agency Labs…

  • Smaller set of R&D

  • products suitable for

  • operations.

  • Systematic transition steps.

  • New products can serve

  • diverse and expanding

  • user community.

  • Delivery to diverse USER

  • community

2

Transition from

research

to

operations/

applications

NCEP

is uniquely

positioned

to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process

3

N

C

E

P

4

Operations

User Community

5


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

CFS Seasonal

Precip Forecast (mm/month)

Without

skill mask


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

CFS Seasonal

Precip Forecast (mm/month)

With

skill mask

  • If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

CFS Seasonal

Temp Forecast (deg K)

Without

skill mask


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

CFS Seasonal

Temp Forecast (deg K)

With

skill mask

  • If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

GSI/GFS Impact studies: Preliminary Results (CHAMP)2-month cycling at T62L64

  • There are some encouraging preliminary results. Before being able to assimilate the RO data in operations we need to:

    • Understand the differences between the assimilation of N and BA. Why in some cases the assimilation of N results in a larger improvement than the assimilation of BA and visa versa?

    • Understand the strengths and weaknesses of the GPS RO data and the model in weather analyses and forecasts. Why does the assimilation of N or BA degrade the forecasts in some cases?

  • The sensitivity of the impact of GPS RO to model resolution, QC parameters and error characterization is under current study.

  • The results of these experiments will accelerate the tuning for the assimilation of COSMIC data.

    Cucurull et al. 2006, submitted to MWR

Control

Refractivity

Bending Angle


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

Early Results: COSMIC

  • The figures show the day-2 anomaly correlation scores for temperature at 300mb for the NH, Tropics and SH. Results for the control (COSM_CTL) and bending angle (COSM_BND) are indicated.

  • Early results on the assimilation of COSMIC bending angles at NCEP show a good performance of the DA system.

  • The same experiments could have assimilated observations of refractivity instead of bending angle.

  • Results are encouraging and more data needs to be assimilated for further tuning and evaluation of the impact of the GPS RO in weather analyses and forecasts.


Ncep update review of progress in operational weather climate and ocean forecasts

Figure 2. The 500HPa Geopotential Anomaly Correlations versus forecast period for GFS forecasts using the operational data base without QuikSCAT data (Control) and using the operational database without QuikSCAT data but with WindSat data (WindSat) over the Southern Hemisphere.


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