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The Impact and Cost of the HIV/AIDS Investment Framework for Adolescents

The Impact and Cost of the HIV/AIDS Investment Framework for Adolescents. John Stover 1 , Jim Rosen 1 , Susan Kasedde 2 , Priscilla Idele 2 , Craig McClure 2 1 Futures Institute , 2 UNICEF.

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The Impact and Cost of the HIV/AIDS Investment Framework for Adolescents

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  1. The Impact and Cost of the HIV/AIDS Investment Framework for Adolescents John Stover1, Jim Rosen1, Susan Kasedde2, Priscilla Idele2, Craig McClure2 1Futures Institute,2UNICEF

  2. Source: Schwartlander, Stover et al 2011, Towards an improved investment approach for an effective response to HIV/AIDS, Lancet; 377: 2031–41.

  3. Impact of Investment Framework

  4. Estimated Cost of Investment Framework, 2011-2020

  5. Purpose: Focus on Adolescents • Apply the Investment Framework analysis to adolescents to determine: • Impact of investing in prevention for adolescents 10-19 on new infections, number of HIV+ adolescents, and adolescent AIDS deaths • Cost of programs by type • Number of adolescents needed to be reached by type of service

  6. Population of Developing Countries by Age (Millions), 2012 Pop 10-19 = 19% of totalpopulation, 26% of adult population, 17% of sexually active population

  7. Scenarios • Base • Constant coverage for prevention and treatment • Investment Framework (IF) • Coverage scales up to target levels by 2015 • Investment Framework Delayed (IF Delayed) • Coverage targets not achieved until 2020 • Pessimistic • Lower coverage targets • Targets achieved in 2020 • Low values of intervention impact

  8. Goals Model Treatment Coverage Effectiveness

  9. Methods: Impact • Goals model in Spectrum applied to 28 countries • Results scaled-up to all 120 low and middle income countries

  10. Adolescent Percent of Target Population

  11. Estimating the Adolescent Markup

  12. Estimating Adolescent Unit Costs

  13. New HIV Infections Among Adolescents

  14. New HIV Infections by Sex (10-19)

  15. AIDS Deaths Among Adolescents

  16. HIV+ Population (10-19): Investment Framework

  17. Estimated Resource Needs for Adolescents Development Synergies Critical Enablers Basic Programs

  18. Estimated Resource Needs for Adolescents Development Synergies Critical Enablers Basic Programs Largest amounts needed for OVC (20%); ART (9%); STI management (7%); and community mobilization, prevention of gender-based violence and PWID (6% each)

  19. Putting Adolescents in Perspective

  20. Conclusions • Impact • The IF could avert 1.5 million new adolescent infections by 2020 • 31% of the total new infections to adolescents under the Base Scenario • A five year delay would reduce impact by 1/3 • Poor implementation would result in little decline in the annual number of new infections • Resources for adolescents • Need to expand by 50% to nearly $6 billion by 2015 to achieve goals of Investment Framework • After 2015 needs will decline somewhat due to reductions in new infections • 1/3 of needs are for Basic Programs, ¼ for Critical Enablers, 40% for Development Synergies

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