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Human Population and the Biodiversity Hotspots

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Gridded-Pop Workshop May 2-3, 2000. Human Population and the Biodiversity Hotspots. Richard Cincotta, Robert Engelman and Jennifer Wisnewski. A Case for Considering the Low-end User of Gridded Pop Data. Who are low-end users?.

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Gridded-Pop WorkshopMay 2-3, 2000

Human Population and the Biodiversity Hotspots

Richard Cincotta,

Robert Engelman and

Jennifer Wisnewski

slide2

A Case for Considering

the Low-end User of

Gridded Pop Data

slide3

Who are low-end users?

  • NGOs and other researchers using ArcView or other GIS viewing applications
  • with or without spatial analysis programs.
slide4

What will they do with GPW?

  • Population density can be associated with risk to various resources, infrastructure and capital.
  • Population density can be associated with exposure to risks from hazards.
slide5

What do low-end users need?

  • Standardization of data and procedures (comparable to UN Population Division procedures).
  • Some hints/guidelines for use and display.
slide6

The Biodiversity Hotspots (25) and Major Tropical Wilderness Areas (3)

Conservation International

slide7

Displaying GPW for Biodiversity Audience

Most Dense: >300 people km-2

150 - 300

50 - 150

15 - 50

5 - 15

1 - 5

Least Dense: 0 - 1

findings biodiversity hotspots
Findings: Biodiversity Hotspots
  • As of 1995, more than 1.1 billion people were living within the 25 biodiversity hotspots.
  • The original extent of the hotspots cover just 12 percent of the planet’s land area but are home to about 20 percent of the world’s population.
findings biodiversity hotspots1
Findings: Biodiversity Hotspots
  • Aggregate population growth (1995-2000) in the 25 hotspots (1.8%/yr) is more rapid than the world as a whole (1.3%/yr).
  • In 1995, aggregate population density in the hotspots (72 people/km2) was greater than that of the world as a whole (42 people/km2).
major tropical wilderness areas
Major Tropical Wilderness Areas
  • Population is growing at a rate of 3.1 percent annually – about 2.5 times the world’s average population growth rate.
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Science & Technology

  • Short article in Nature(27 April 2000 issue, pp. 990-992)
  • Forthcoming article for GIS-users in ArcNews
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Policymakers

  • Forthcoming article for policymakers: Issues in Science & Technology
  • UNDP/GEF sponsored priority-setting workshop for the West African Hotspot (Dec. 1999).
  • Centerpiece for report: Nature’s Place
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Public Audiences

  • Population section on Conservation International wall map.
  • Analysis recommended for Pennsylvania state high school environmental science curriculum.
  • Press & Popularization
slide17

Recommendations

  • A Standard Time Series (e.g., 1995, 2000, 2005, … ) -- with procedures for updating those intervals based on new estimates.
  • Historic estimates: (e.g., 1975 or 1950).
  • Discussions of Projection Methods.
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Nature\'s Place

Human Population and the Future of Biological Diversity

Richard Cincotta & Robert Engelman

GIS Analysis: Jennifer Wisnewski

Research Assistance:

Bonnie Dye & Akia Talbot

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