The power of dynamic thinking
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The Power of Dynamic Thinking. Reaching Across Boundaries in Default Aversion. Will that doctor be sued?. What is the number one determinant – identified by statisticians and actuaries – as to whether or not a doctor will be sued?. Keeping It Simple Isn’t Always Right. Static Model:.

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The Power of Dynamic Thinking

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The power of dynamic thinking

The Power of Dynamic Thinking

Reaching Across Boundaries in Default Aversion


Will that doctor be sued

Will that doctor be sued?

  • What is the number one determinant – identified by statisticians and actuaries – as to whether or not a doctor will be sued?


Keeping it simple isn t always right

Keeping It Simple Isn’t Always Right

Static Model:

Doctor Treats Patient

Doctor Makes A

Mistake

Doctor Sued


Will that doctor be sued1

Will that doctor be sued?

  • Q: What is the number one determinant – identified by statisticians and actuaries – as to whether or not a doctor will be sued?

  • A: The amount of time that a doctor spends with that patient

    • Gladwell, M. (2007). Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking


Dynamic thinking

Dynamic Thinking

  • Static thinking is a formalized process that depicts events but does not address the underlying forces (dynamics) that may have an impact on that event or series of events. 

  • Dynamic thinking is the study of the interconnected relationships on an event and the impact of those interactions upon the outcomes of the system.


Keeping it simple isn t always right1

Keeping It Simple Isn’t Always Right

Dynamic Model:

Doctor Sued

Doctor Treats Patient

Doctor Builds A

Relationship w/ Patient

Doctor Makes A

Mistake

Patient Evaluates

Malpractice Relative

To Relationship

Doctor Not Sued


Static vs dynamic thinking and policy

Static vs. Dynamic Thinking and Policy

Static Model: Policies that give patients less face-time with the doctor

Dynamic Model: Policies that don’t just focus on fewer mistakes, but that focus on the patient


Default prevention static vs dynamic

Default Prevention: Static vs. Dynamic

  • Effective default prevention is a dynamic process

  • We cannot take a picture of it because there are several interrelated, moving parts


One minute recap of previous symposia

One-Minute Recap of Previous Symposia

  • Session 1: Provided context to this discussion by telling us about the state-of-mind of our students

  • Session 2: Gave us specific information about our students’ borrowing habits as well as a fundamental basis for institutional research


Static default prevention model

Static Default Prevention Model

Student Takes

Out Loan

Borrower Goes

270 Days W/out

Payment

Borrower Defaults


Static default prevention model1

Static Default Prevention Model

Student Takes

Out Loan

Student Borrower

Drops Out of School

Borrower Goes

270 Days W/out

Payment

Borrower Defaults


What are the dynamic forces that affect student loan default

What are the dynamic forces that affect student loan default?

  • Failing classes: positive correlation with default

  • Number of credit hours (mixed results): negative correlation with default

  • Whether or not they work outside of school (mixed results): negative correlation with default

  • GPA: negative correlation with default

  • Feelings about school/education: negative correlation with default

  • Graduate: negative correlation with default


The power of dynamic thinking

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators


The power of dynamic thinking

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators


The power of dynamic thinking

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators


Student success

“Student Success”

  • Increase year-to-year retention

  • Increase degree completion

  • Increase on-time completion rates


Examining policies with dynamics in mind

Examining Policies With Dynamics In Mind

Student

Default Aversion Policy


Examining policies with dynamics in mind1

Examining Policies With Dynamics In Mind

  • Why So Difficult?

    • Follow the Money – It’s All About Access

      • College readiness dollars come to less than one percent of all other federal grant and campus-based funds

    • Percentage of students that require remediation is up to around 60 percent


Access v success

Access v. Success


Access v success1

Access v. Success


College success

College Success

  • Financial aid office can play a big part

  • Bridge Programs and the Financial Aid Office

  • Goals:

    • Raising aspirations

    • Navigating the admissions/financial aid processes

    • Easing the transition during the first year


Examining policies and plans with dynamics in mind

Examining Policies And Plans With Dynamics In Mind

  • Consider whether policies are well designed to achieve their intended effects

  • Adopt policies that maximize net positive effects on key objectives

  • Design policies that minimize negative effects on key objectives

  • Adopt a mix of policies that in combination produce positive effects

Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (2007)

Strategies for Improving Student Success in Postsecondary Education


The power of dynamic thinking

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators


Student school relationships

Student / School Relationships

  • Seller Questionnaire: Please answer the following questions: How much would you sell your $2,500 car for to the following people?

  • How much to a nasty neighbor?

  • How much to a stranger?

  • How much to a friend?

  • How much to a brother or sister that needed it?


Student school relationships1

Student / School Relationships

  • When there is a relationship developed, the trading range between two people, two organizations, or an organization and a person increases.

No Trade

Trade

Trade


The power of dynamic thinking

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators


The power of dynamic thinking

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators


The student transition

The Student Transition

  • Random Exploration

    • Transition Phase

    • Establishment Phase

    • New Beginning Phase

  • Focused Exploration

  • Tentative Choices

  • Commitment

Mary Stuart Hunter, James S. Gahagan, & Molly A. Schaller


How is the relationship

How is the Relationship?

  • NASFAA found that 51 percent of FAOs are tracking customer relationships

  • 54 percent of institutions have mechanisms to do so


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