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April 2007 Richard Barker, Fugro Chance Inc.

Meeting The Challenges of Nature The Impact of Space Weather on Marine Positioning Services Solar Cycle Progression and the Maturing of GPS. April 2007 Richard Barker, Fugro Chance Inc. Our Mission is to Provide Superior Survey Solutions Safely. 9800 Staff. 60 Countries. 275 Offices.

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April 2007 Richard Barker, Fugro Chance Inc.

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  1. Meeting The Challenges of NatureThe Impact of Space Weather on Marine Positioning ServicesSolar Cycle Progression and the Maturing of GPS April 2007 Richard Barker, Fugro Chance Inc. Our Mission is to Provide Superior Survey Solutions Safely

  2. 9800Staff 60Countries 275Offices 40Vessels 80Jack-Up Platforms 200Land Drill-Rigs 15Laboratories DGPS Reference Stations 75 CPT Units 100 5AUVs 40Airplanes 100ROVs Resources

  3. Marine Construction Support Geophysical Surveys Positioning SubmarineCable Surveys LIDAR Surveys Seismic Data Collection GIS/DataManagement Oceanography ROV / Diving Business Lines

  4. Airborne LIDAR Survey

  5. Transmission Line LIDAR Survey Transmission Line Structure Transmission Line Sag

  6. Fugro Chance Provides Precise Positioning Services for Various Types of Vessels, Marine Operations and Construction Support

  7. RTK- GPS Gunfloat and Streamer TrackingFor Deep Seismic Oil Exploration

  8. Semi Submersible Rig, Tugs and Anchor Handling Vessels (AHV)

  9. Traditional Anchor

  10. Suction Pile

  11. 23,000 Pipelines in Gulf of Mexico Region 16,000 in Federal Waters 7,000 in State Waters GOM Pipeline Infrastructure

  12. 3D Representation of GOM InfrastructureSemi Submersible Modular Drilling Unit – Tension Leg Platform

  13. Anchor Operations

  14. World's Leading Supplier of High Performance DGPS Satellite DGPS Services Since 1987

  15. Worldwide GPS Reference Network With Signals On 14 Transponders

  16. Geomagnetic Equator Total Electron Content Graphics: NorthWest Research Associates Inc. & NASA/JPL

  17. S/A Off IOC Cycle 23 Peak FOC 24 hr GPS S/A On Cycle 22 Peak 1st GPS Rcvr GPS Constellation Buildup

  18. 99 - DF Solutions 91 - S/A on 00 - S/A Off 01 - March Xx 93 - Only DGPS 02 - High Accuracy 03 - WAAS IOC 93 - RTK 03 - Halloween X17 93 - GPS IOC (24 sats) 94 - A/S on 95 - GPS FOC 06-X6 RBE 87 - DGPS 98 - GE Problems 86 - Starfix 97 - VBS GPS and the Solar Cycle

  19. RTK Problems 01 March Xx 02 High Accuracy 00-S/A off Oct 02 – 10 Days 03-WAAS IOC 99-DF Solutions 03- Halloween X17 98-GE Problems 06-X6 RBE 97-VBS services Cycle 23 Solar Flux

  20. Satellite Status / Space Weather Updates • TheSatellite Status / Space Weather Updateprovides time sensitive information on satellite status and space weather forecasts that may cause operational disruptions. • Subscribed Client Organizations include (partial listing): • Allseas PGS • BP Spectra Precision • CGG Seadrill • Case New Holland Stenna • Diamond Offshore Shell • Exxon/Mobile Transocean • Fairfield Trimble Navigation • Global USACE • Oceaneering USDA Also included are individual farmers, farm co-op’s (for precision Ag), construction companies, municipalities, construction and agricultural sales and service organizations. Over 400 individuals are subscribed to Satellite Status / Space Weather Update.

  21. Space Weather Product / Service Needs • What will Solar Cycle 24 look like (Maximum f10.7 sfu) • Scintillation Predictions (severe ionospheric signal scattering) • Problem Regions • Likelihood of Expected Daily Repeatability • Improved CME Estimates • Velocity, ETA • Geomagnetic Storm Level Estimates • Radio Burst (Nowcasting) • Frequency Spectrum Alerts • Estimated Duration • Expected Region of Impact • Advice on Index Interactions and Expected Effects • E.G., A high KP/AP index combined with a high f10.7 cm solar flux increases GPS ranging errors and reduces positioning accuracy. Where are the regions of maximum sensitivity and points of exponential increase?

  22. Lack of Effective Forecasting Leads to Unpleasant Results Better To Delay Than To Do It Again …Or Worse, To Break Something Expensive Peter Paul Rubens “Death of Achilles”

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