Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013
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Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013. Cara McCarthy Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecast Program National Water and Climate Center Portland, OR. Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011.

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Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013

Cara McCarthy

Natural Resources Conservation Service

Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecast Program

National Water and Climate Center

Portland, OR

Picture:

Spill at Pathfinder Dam,

North Platte River

June 2011

Entry to Geneva Park Snow Course, South Platte, for February 1st, 2013 Measurement,

60% of Normal


  • Water Supply Forecasts/Current Conditions

  • A SNOTEL site you should not use for SWE

  • Snow Course Reductions

  • Change to 1981-2010 SWE Medians

Sawtooth Snow Course, South Platte

Feb 1st Measurement


February 1, 2013


Feb 1, 2013


February 1, 2013

Snow Water Equivalent

as % of Normal (Median)


SNOTEL

Month-to-Date Precipitation

% of Normal

February 18, 2013


Change in SNOTEL Snow Water Equivalent since February 1

Feb 18, 2013

SWE

% Normal

Feb 1, 2013

SWE

% of Normal


Month-to-Date Guidance Forecast Change as Percent of 1981-2010 Normal

Feb 18, 2013


From Lucas Zukiewicz, NRCS SSWSF Montana DCO 2/7/2013


Pike Creek SNOTEL May 2009


Pike Creek SNOTEL May 2009


39 Snow Course Reductions in Montana DCO Area

Bear Basin Snow Course 2006


New Normals this Year

  • Every decade the 30 year normals change periods.

  • This year we go from the 1971-2000 period to the 1981-2010 period.

  • The change is meant to keep pace with current climatic conditions as the most recent years are said to represent the current conditions.

  • Most data types are calculated as a straight average except Snow Water Equivalent which is “median” or “middle value”


Why will SWE use a median?


Lewis Lake Divide SNOTEL Site Yellowstone NP January 16, 2013


Effect of Change to Median SWE 1981-2010


http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reportGenerator/


Questions?

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov


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