Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013
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Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013. Cara McCarthy Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecast Program National Water and Climate Center Portland, OR. Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011.

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Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013

Cara McCarthy

Natural Resources Conservation Service

Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecast Program

National Water and Climate Center

Portland, OR

Picture:

Spill at Pathfinder Dam,

North Platte River

June 2011

Entry to Geneva Park Snow Course, South Platte, for February 1st, 2013 Measurement,

60% of Normal


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

  • Water Supply Forecasts/Current Conditions

  • A SNOTEL site you should not use for SWE

  • Snow Course Reductions

  • Change to 1981-2010 SWE Medians

Sawtooth Snow Course, South Platte

Feb 1st Measurement


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

February 1, 2013


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

Feb 1, 2013


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

February 1, 2013

Snow Water Equivalent

as % of Normal (Median)


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

SNOTEL

Month-to-Date Precipitation

% of Normal

February 18, 2013


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

Change in SNOTEL Snow Water Equivalent since February 1

Feb 18, 2013

SWE

% Normal

Feb 1, 2013

SWE

% of Normal


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

Month-to-Date Guidance Forecast Change as Percent of 1981-2010 Normal

Feb 18, 2013


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

From Lucas Zukiewicz, NRCS SSWSF Montana DCO 2/7/2013


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

Pike Creek SNOTEL May 2009


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

Pike Creek SNOTEL May 2009


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

39 Snow Course Reductions in Montana DCO Area

Bear Basin Snow Course 2006


New normals this year

New Normals this Year

  • Every decade the 30 year normals change periods.

  • This year we go from the 1971-2000 period to the 1981-2010 period.

  • The change is meant to keep pace with current climatic conditions as the most recent years are said to represent the current conditions.

  • Most data types are calculated as a straight average except Snow Water Equivalent which is “median” or “middle value”


Why will swe use a median

Why will SWE use a median?


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

Lewis Lake Divide SNOTEL Site Yellowstone NP January 16, 2013


Effect of change to median swe 1981 2010

Effect of Change to Median SWE 1981-2010


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reportGenerator/


Picture spill at pathfinder dam north platte river june 2011

Questions?

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov


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