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World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision Gerhard K. Heilig

World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision Gerhard K. Heilig. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Section www.unpopulation.org 5 May 2011. WPP preparation process: Overview

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World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision Gerhard K. Heilig

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  1. World Population ProspectsThe 2010 RevisionGerhard K. Heilig United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Sectionwww.unpopulation.org5 May 2011

  2. WPP preparation process: Overview Estimation of population, fertility, mortality and migration Probabilistic projection of total fertility Projection of life expectancy Projection of migration Table of content 0 1 2 3 4 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  3. Team Chief Gerhard K. Heilig Population Affairs Officer Danan Gu Population Affairs Officer Kirill Andreev Population Affairs Officer Patrick Gerland Population Affairs Officer Nan Li Population Affairs Officer Thomas Spoorenberg Editorial Assistant Neena Koshy Information Systems Assistant Sarada Ravinuthala Information Systems Assistant Chandrasekhar Yamarthy

  4. Mandate • Prepare the World Population Prospects • Official United Nations population projections, used throughout the UN System • Recent revisions prepared every second year • Latest revision: 2010 (230 countries) • 22 revisions since the early 1950s • Prepare the World Urbanization Prospects • Estimates and projections of urban population for 230 countries • Estimates and projections of major urban agglomerations (about 5000) • Latest revision: 2009 • Since 1988 • Publish results, develop methodology • Web sites, wall charts, CD-ROMs/DVDs, databases • Model life tables, probabilistic projections (Bayesian Hierarchical Model) • Develop specialized databases and software • DemoBase, DemoData, DataArchive • Estimation and projection software, probabilistic models, data checking

  5. World Population Prospects: What we do 0 Start of WPP Start of WUP Projection, Aggregation, Checking Output Production Data Collection, Estimation 1 2 3 Data Collection230 countries / areas Uploading to Database Calculation of Variants Early Release Data CD-ROMs / DVDs EvaluationAdjustments Aggregation of Regions Online DatabaseWeb Sites Checking of Results Epidem. Modelingfor AIDS Countries Fixing of Errors Statistical ReportsVol. 1, 2 60% of Workload Consulting / Feedback Wall Chart Methodological Report (on web site) 15% of Workload Responding to clients Update and development of new databases and software, server and database maintenance, backup 25% of Workload

  6. Census data + post-enumeration surveys(from United Nations Demographic Yearbook database and directly from National Statistical Offices) All available demographic and health surveys(DHS, DSS, MICS, WHS, etc.) for estimating fertility and mortality Estimates from population and vital registers(from statistical reports of National Statistical Offices or their web sites) Scientific reports and data collections(Human Mortality Database, child mortality estimates, etc.) Data and estimates provided by other international agencies(CELADE, Regional Commissions, EUROSTAT, ESCAP, UNICEF, UNAIDS, WHO) WPP data sources 0 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  7. 1 Methodology The UN approach to estimating population (by age and sex), fertility, mortality and migrationAvailability & Data Quality Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  8. Register Data: Population by Age and Sex 1 ≈ 2/3 of countries have insufficient population estimates by age and sex to establish consistent time-series from 1950 to present Sufficient for cohort-component projection Partially sufficient for cohort-component projection Not sufficient for projection Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  9. Data Sources: Child Mortality Estimation (WPP2008) 1 Number of countries according to the most recent data available Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  10. Data Sources: Adult Mortality Estimation (WPP2008) 1 Number of countries according to the most recent data available Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  11. Data Sources: Fertility Estimation (WPP2008) 1 Number of countries according to the most recent data available Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  12. Estimation of Population from Censuses 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  13. Estimation of Population from Censuses 1 Under-reported migrant workers Under-reported births Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  14. Estimation of Total Population 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  15. Estimation of Total Population 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  16. Estimation of Total Population 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  17. Estimation of Mortality: 1q0, 5q0 (Senegal) 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  18. Estimation of Mortality: 5q0 (Senegal) 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  19. Estimation of Mortality: 45q15 (Senegal) 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  20. Estimation of Fertility: TFR (Senegal) 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  21. Estimation of Fertility: ASFR (Bangladesh) 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  22. Estimation of Fertility: ASFR (Bangladesh) 1 Lines are weighted cubic spline and loess regression trends Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  23. Data Quality Assessment (based on WPP2006) 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  24. 2 Methodology: The UN approach to projecting total fertility A Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based on bi-logistic decline curves of fertility Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  25. 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 Fertility decline 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Children per woman Fast/Fast Fast/Slow Slow/Slow Model of fertility decline 2 Model: Bi-logistic function to estimate the rate of fertility decline Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  26. 4 8 7 6 3 5 Children per woman Children per woman 4 2 3 2 1 1 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Year Fast/Fast Fast/Slow Slow/Slow Floor Fast/Fast Fast/Slow Slow/Slow Floor Projections: Fertility 2 A. From high to low fertility B. From medium to 1.85 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  27. Model of fertility decline 2 Model: Bi-logistic function to estimate the rate of fertility decline In probabilistic fertility projection: Parameters values are replaced by distributions.Some 100,000 trajectories of fertility decline are calculated by sampling from these parameter distributions. Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  28. Fertility models and empirical data 2 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  29. BHM: A fertility transition model 2 Phase I: Not modeled. Phase II: Fertility transition, modeled by Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) Phase III: Modeled with a first order autoregressive time series model [AR1], with its mean fixed at the approximate replacement-level fertility of 2.1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  30. BHM: A fertility transition model 2 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  31. BHM: A fertility transition model 2 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  32. BHM: Bi-logistic functions and TF projections 2 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  33. Probabilistic Projection of Population 2 Based on estimates from WPP2010; probabilistic fertility, deterministic mortality Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  34. Probabilistic Projection of Population 2 Total Population Population age 15-64 Based on estimates from WPP2010; probabilistic fertility, deterministic mortality Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  35. Probabilistic Projection of Population 2 Total Population Population age 15-64 Based on estimates from WPP2010; probabilistic fertility, deterministic mortality Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  36. 3 Methodology: The UN approach to projecting life expectancy Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  37. Models for projecting life expectancy at birth 3 Illustration of the double-logistic function (based on a curve from Japan). The left plot illustrates the double-logistic function of 5-year gains in life expectancy. The right plot is a time-series of life expectancy, e(0), with gains modeled according to the double-logistic function Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  38. Models for projecting life expectancy at birth 3 Illustration of the double-logistic function (based on a curve from Japan). The left plot illustrates the double-logistic function of 5-year gains in life expectancy. The right plot is a time-series of life expectancy, e(0), with gains modeled according to the double-logistic function Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  39. Models for projecting life expectancy at birth 3 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  40. Models for projecting life expectancy at birth 3 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  41. Projections: Mortality models and empirical data 3 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  42. Probabilistic mortality projection 3 • Data: • Male life expectancy at birth from 1950 through 2005; • Estimates from UN World Population Prospects (WPP2006) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  43. Data Checking 5 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  44. DemoData: Empirical Database 5 Different Data Sources Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

  45. Thank You ! www.unpopulation.org Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

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