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Changing East Asia and the U.S. What/where is East Asia?. China Japan South Korea North Korea Taiwan Hong Kong -Geographical proximity - Historical/cultural connectedness. Important Trends. Shifting balance of economic and military power in Asia—rise of China

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what where is east asia
What/where is East Asia?
  • China
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • North Korea
  • Taiwan
  • Hong Kong

-Geographical proximity

- Historical/cultural connectedness

important trends
Important Trends
  • Shifting balance of economic and military power in Asia—rise of China
  • Growing intra-regional/Asian trade
  • Shifting concerns and strategic interests for Asian countries and the U.S.
three terms to understand china
Three terms to understand China
  • Developmental state

2. Rapid, global industrialization

3. Hegemony

china s developmental state
China’s Developmental State
  • IDEOLOGY: rapid economic development on behalf of society (follow examples of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan)
  • LEGITIMACY: based on success of economic development and nationalism
  • UNITY: prevent domestic disruption e.g. ethno-nationalist aspirations of Tibetans or Uighers in Xinjiang
  • POINT: China’s government will keep promoting this ideology and its policies to protect itself
rapid global industrialization manufacturing center of the world still
Rapid Global Industrialization →Manufacturing Center of the World (still)

- #1 producer of coal, steel and cement

- produces 70% of the world’s toys

  • #1 producer of electronic goods
  • 3rdlargest producer of autos
  • 400 of the top 500 companies operate in China
  • Leads the world in ship building
growing center of technology development production
Growing Center of Technology Development & Production
  • U.S. companies and universities establishing research centers in China
  • Growing Chinese research presence with nanotechnology, gene technology
  • Alternative energy—largest producer of wind turbines
domestic impact of china s industrialization
Domestic Impact of China’s Industrialization
  • Growing middle class, about 150 million (US$10-20/day); huge reduction of poverty
  • Growing domestic market
  • Huge migrant labor pool
  • Rapid urbanization: about 50% in 2020
  • Growing income and wealth gap
  • Enormous water, air, soil pollution
  • Fake products
  • Developing capitalist “can do” culture
international regional impact of china s industrialization
International/Regional Impact of China’s Industrialization
  • 2nd largest economy in the world, will surpass the U.S. economy in 2019-2020
    • China’s GDP :10.09 T (PPP, 2010, CIA) [GDP/capita? $7,900]
    • US GDP: 14.66T (PPP, 2010, CIA) [GDP/capita: $48,000]
  • 2nd largest exporter in the world
  • 2nd largest trade partner with the U.S.
  • Represents 14% of world’s economy (PPP)
  • Holds nearly 2.8 trillion in foreign currency (2010)
  • China’s proposal: Asian economic integration EAFTA + Japan, South Korea + ASEAN
china and the carolinas
China and the Carolinas
  • High-tech textiles to China
  • Lenovo Group in Research Triangle & Morrisville
  • Production of Haierin South Carolina (Haier is the largest appliance manufacturer in the world)
issues and constraints
Issues and Constraints
  • Resource needs and costs
  • Economic slowdown—impact of interdependence
  • Inflation
  • Housing bubble and banking woes
  • Population growth
  • Political challenges:
    • Human rights: peasants, ethnic groups, workers
    • Corruption
    • Thousands of demonstrations each year
china s energy and resource challenge
China’s Energy and Resource Challenge
  • China is #2 in oil consumption
  • By 2020 China will import 70% of its oil needs (now 50%)
  • Coal provides 70% of energy
  • Number of autos in China expected to increase 5-fold
china s charm offensive
China’s “Charm Offensive”
  • to get resources and political support:
    • Offer “alternative” to the U.S. human rights approach
    • Provide investment without “strings”
    • Build physical infrastructure and schools
    • Promote cultural knowledge and exchanges
    • Example: deal with Kazakhstan (holds 3%of world’s oil reserves)
china s population workforce challenge
China’s Population & Workforce Challenge
  • China’s population will peak in 2030 and begin to decline
  • China’s rapid aging population problem
    • 2010 Census: people aged 60 or more = 13.3% of the total population [U.S. 65 or older = 12.9% of population]
    • 2050: aged population = 1/3 of population
    • Aged population greatest in rural areas
    • “4-2-1” phenomenon: one child supporting 2 parents and 4 grandparents
    • Increased need for medical care; decline of workers
human rights
Human Rights
  • Increased personal freedom, up to a point
  • Crackdown on any attempts of autonomy
  • Arrest of any opposition or political critics
rising hegemony
Rising Hegemony?
  • Hegemony = economic, political, ideological and cultural power of a state in the world system
    • Historically China has not been expansionist BUT it was the CENTER (中国) of an Asian tributary system
    • Hegemons do not recognize their rise or decline
    • Key to hegemony is economic power followed by military power
    • Hegemons try to change the “rules” of the world system in their favor: economic, political, cultural
china s military challenge
China’s Military Challenge
  • 3rd largest nuclear power
  • largest conventional army & modernizing
  • Modernizing airforce—J20
  • Building an aircraft carrier—blue water navy capability in the Pacific
  • Naval bases in Indian Ocean
  • Military spending?
    • Big increase 2008-2010
    • 2011 Official: US$91.5 B
south china sea issues
South China Sea Issues
  • Spratly Islands—oil and territorial control
  • Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia lay claim to the islands
  • Recent Vietnamese military exercises & China’s response
east china sea issues
East China Sea Issues
  • Diaoyutai or Senkaku Islands
    • Small, uninhabited islands
    • Contested by Japan, Taiwan and Mainland China; historical animosity b/t Japan and China
    • Possible oil nearby
china s challenge to the u s
China’s Challenge to the U.S.
  • Intellectual property rights & industrial espionage
  • Cyber warfare
  • China’s military in the Pacific—how to maintain U.S. superiority? Japan’s role?
  • China’s relationship to non-democratic states & Russia
  • the RMB exchange and role in global finance?
  • Future educational challenge? Engineers?
  • Transfer of Taiwan to mainland China
japan s troubles
Japan’s Troubles
  • Domestic problems
  • lack of a dynamic economy
  • lack of effective leadership
  • spiraling social costs of an aging society
  • Rising nationalism and threat of militarization
  • nuclear power and energy needs
  • Regional challenges
    • China’s growing military power
    • Control of Senkaku islands
    • North Korea
    • Economic interdependence with China
north korea stalemate and tensions
North Korea: Stalemate and Tensions

What NK wants?

South Korea

Booming economy

Strong military w/ help of U.S.

President Lee Myung-bak willing to talk with NK but NK needs to:

Admit its attacks on SK

Cease any future attacks

  • Peace treaty with South Korea and U.S.
  • Diplomatic recognition by the U.S.
  • Economic aid
  • Keep its ties to China
  • Ability to threaten SK without a major response
  • Return of defectors