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Organizational Demand Analysis. Chapter 6. Forecasting. Why is forecasting important?. Organizational Demand Analysis. Market Potential “Maximum possible sales of all sellers of a given product in a defined market during a specific time period.” Sales forecast

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Presentation Transcript
forecasting
Forecasting
  • Why is forecasting important?
organizational demand analysis1
Organizational Demand Analysis
  • Market Potential
    • “Maximum possible sales of all sellers of a given product in a defined market during a specific time period.”
  • Sales forecast
    • “Maximum share of market potential an individual company might expect for a certain product or product line.”
  • Example
forecasting1
Forecasting
  • Where to get information?
    • Internet
      • Census bureau
      • Competitors
      • Customers
        • Issues
forecasting2
Forecasting
  • Potential for Planning Strategy
    • Forecast helps to plan:
      • Engineering design and implementation
      • Marketing and commercial development
      • External stakeholders
  • Potentials: Planning and Controlling by Segment
    • Segment market
    • Allocate expenditures
forecasting3
Forecasting
  • Life Cycle Potential
  • Role of the Sales Forecast
    • What does it do?
  • Applying Market Potential and Sales Forecast
    • Market potential
    • Sales forecast
    • Supply chain implications
determining market sales potentials
Determining Market & Sales Potentials
  • Statistical Series Methods
    • Easy if
    • Example
  • Single Series Method
    • Make sure series is related to demand for product
    • Determine the relationship
    • Estimate future values
      • Independently forecasting
      • Rely on government or industry forecasts

4. Determining market potential

market research
Market Research
  • Surveys
    • Advantages
    • Disadvantages
  • Role of Forecasting
market research1
Market Research
  • Forecasting Methods
    • Qualitative methods (AKA management judgment and subjective techniques)
      • Executive judgment
        • Advantages
        • Disadvantages
      • Sales force composite
        • Advantages
        • Disadvantages
      • Delphi method
        • Advantages
        • Disadvantages
market research2
Market Research
  • Forecasting Methods
    • Quantitative methods (systematic or objective forecasting)
      • Time series
        • Historical data to project future
        • Components
          • Trend
          • Cycle
          • Seasonal
          • Irregular
market research3
Market Research
      • Regression or causal techniques
        • Determine relationship between sales and an outside variable
        • Requirements
        • Limitations
          • Spurious relationships
          • Historical data
          • May not work
  • Several methods= Better accuracy
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