Vraag voor de campagne wat wordt het thema
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Vraag voor de campagne: wat wordt HET thema. Islamitische immigranten (culturele dimensie – conservatieve kant) Economisch herstel (consensusissues - regeringspartijen) Bezuinigingen overheidsuitgaven ( links-rechts-dimensie – rechtse kant). Kengetallen 2010. Grote volatiliteit

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Vraag voor de campagne: wat wordt HET thema

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Vraag voor de campagne wat wordt het thema

Vraag voor de campagne: wat wordt HET thema

  • Islamitische immigranten (culturele dimensie – conservatieve kant)

  • Economisch herstel (consensusissues - regeringspartijen)

  • Bezuinigingen overheidsuitgaven (links-rechts-dimensie – rechtse kant)


Kengetallen 2010

Kengetallen 2010

  • Grote volatiliteit

    34 zetels verschoven tussen partijen

    (evenals in 1994, geringer dan in 2002)

  • Grote fragmentatie dan ooit,

    grootste partij slechts 31 zetels, slechts 1/5 van de stemmen

    entropie in NE, perplexiteit = 7.7 gelijke partijen


Waarom de stemwijzer cda kiezers alle kanten opstuurt

Waarom de Stemwijzer CDA-kiezers alle kanten opstuurt


Waarom kieskompas cda kiezers wegjaagt

Waarom Kieskompas CDA-kiezers wegjaagt


Intomartgfk poll 7 th 8 th mai

IntomartGfk poll 7th – 8th Mai

June 7th – June 8th

Correct: PvdD, CDA, SGP,D66,VVD;

1 zetel fout PvdA, GroenLinks, D66

echt fout: SP en CU te hoog, PVV te laag


Intomartgfk poll

IntomartGfk poll

PvdA verreweg de grootste op 34; PVV op 20


Four theories to explain short term shifts in election campaigns

Four theories to explain short term shifts in election campaigns

  • Retrospective voting and news about real-world developments

  • Prospective issue voting and news about the issue positions of parties

  • Game theory and news on Cooperation and Conflict, Support and Criticism

  • Momentum, bandwagon/underdog effects, herding effect, and news on Success and Failure

    Mediating variables: propensity to vote, trust or striking features and striking events ?


Methode

Methode

  • Daily Content Analysis (Nieuwsmonitor)

  • Weekly Panel Survey data (IntomartGfk, 10 waves,

    (first wave early April n=1804, 10th wave 7-8th June n=1200)

  • reconstruction of personal, exponentially decaying, information sets

  • Operationalisation of mediating News Consumer Variables

  • Exploratory Data Analysis: logistic model


Noteworthy campaign 2010 until april 23rd issue oriented

Noteworthy: campaign 2010 until April 23rd issue-oriented


Retrospective voting terrifying real world conditions in 2010

Table 2: Real world developments according to the media

retrospective voting: terrifying real-world conditions in 2010


Issue positions 2010 what happened with leftist issues

Table 3: Issue positions of parties in 2010 election campaign according to the media, weighted by media attention

Issue Positions 2010: what happened with leftist issues?

Issue positions of parties in 2010 election campaign according to the media,

weighted by media attention


Issue ownership issue reputations march n 1804

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010

Issue ownership: issue reputations March (n=1804)


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ?

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010

Feb 19th – April 11th


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel1

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ?

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010

April 26th – May 9th


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel2

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ?

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010

May 10h – May 23trd


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel3

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ?

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel4

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ?

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel5

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ?

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010


Voter flows june 7 th 8 th as compared to 2006 elections

Voter flows: June 7th-8th as compared to 2006 elections


Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op

Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op?


Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op1

Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op?


Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op2

Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op?


Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op3

Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op?


Voter flows june 7 th 8 th as compared to 2010 mun el march

Voter flows:June 7th-8th as compared to 2010 mun.el.March


Voter flows

Voter flows

May 17th- May 23rd


Voter flows1

Voter flows


Voter flows2

Voter flows


Attribution of success and failure late march all pvda

Attribution of success and failure late March: all PvdA

March 15th - March 28th


Early april vvd more success than pvda

Early april: VVD more success than PvdA

March 29th - April 11th


Attribution of success and failure in may all vvd

Attribution of success and failure in May: all VVD

Mai 10h – Mai 23th


Logistic model to explain whether one votes for a party in a given week

Logistic model to explain whether one votes for a party in a given week


Logistic model per party

Logistic model per party

  • Christian Democrats (CDA)

    • strong impact of the (negative) media performance of the party on the voters (leadership of Balkenende, extramarital affair of family man De Vries).

    • Impact of news on struggles within (doubts about Balkenende, De Vries)

    • positive impact with their issue positions, for example with a strong position against crime.

  • The Socialist Party (SP)

    • Until May 23rd unable in 2010 to make impressions on the voters with issue positions.

    • Strong recovery after 2nd television debate; the come back of leftist issues


Logistic model per party1

Logistic model per party

  • The Labour Party (PvdA)

    • did not succeed in making an impact with its issue positions in addition to the effects of subjective media performance until late April

    • Shifts of voters to, or from the party can be explained best by news on successes and failures (e.g. by the great successes attributed to the major of Amsterdam in his political honeymoon month) and by news about the support for (praise, positive remarks, rather than criticisms on!) the new leader of the Labour Party in the early weeks of the election campaign

  • VVD

    • strong impact due to its issue positions on rightist issues (cuts in government expenditures, tax cuts), government efficiency, norms and values.


Evaluation of the campaign

Evaluation of the campaign

  • Highlights

    • Respect of party leaders for each other

    • Issues, although not always the most relevant issues (not: EU, Afghanistan, climate)

  • Sense of shame

    • Fragmented television debates  fragmented political landscape

    • lack of clarity with regard to social effects of party programmes (e.g. de Volkskrant – Nyfer)

    • NOS journaal Mai 1st: internal dissent news about anonymous CDA-leaders who did not trust Balkenende


Summary discussion dutch elections 2010

Summary / Discussion Dutch Elections 2010

  • It’s cuts in government expenditures,

  • It’s only the right side of the left-right axis

  • It’s the VVD


Cross national proximity scaling of party issue landscape

Cross-national proximity scaling of party-issue-landscape


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