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Vraag voor de campagne: wat wordt HET thema. Islamitische immigranten (culturele dimensie – conservatieve kant) Economisch herstel (consensusissues - regeringspartijen) Bezuinigingen overheidsuitgaven ( links-rechts-dimensie – rechtse kant). Kengetallen 2010. Grote volatiliteit

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Vraag voor de campagne wat wordt het thema
Vraag voor de campagne: wat wordt HET thema

  • Islamitische immigranten (culturele dimensie – conservatieve kant)

  • Economisch herstel (consensusissues - regeringspartijen)

  • Bezuinigingen overheidsuitgaven (links-rechts-dimensie – rechtse kant)


Kengetallen 2010
Kengetallen 2010

  • Grote volatiliteit

    34 zetels verschoven tussen partijen

    (evenals in 1994, geringer dan in 2002)

  • Grote fragmentatie dan ooit,

    grootste partij slechts 31 zetels, slechts 1/5 van de stemmen

    entropie in NE, perplexiteit = 7.7 gelijke partijen




Intomartgfk poll 7 th 8 th mai
IntomartGfk poll 7th – 8th Mai

June 7th – June 8th

Correct: PvdD, CDA, SGP,D66,VVD;

1 zetel fout PvdA, GroenLinks, D66

echt fout: SP en CU te hoog, PVV te laag


Intomartgfk poll
IntomartGfk poll

PvdA verreweg de grootste op 34; PVV op 20


Four theories to explain short term shifts in election campaigns
Four theories to explain short term shifts in election campaigns

  • Retrospective voting and news about real-world developments

  • Prospective issue voting and news about the issue positions of parties

  • Game theory and news on Cooperation and Conflict, Support and Criticism

  • Momentum, bandwagon/underdog effects, herding effect, and news on Success and Failure

    Mediating variables: propensity to vote, trust or striking features and striking events ?


Methode
Methode campaigns

  • Daily Content Analysis (Nieuwsmonitor)

  • Weekly Panel Survey data (IntomartGfk, 10 waves,

    (first wave early April n=1804, 10th wave 7-8th June n=1200)

  • reconstruction of personal, exponentially decaying, information sets

  • Operationalisation of mediating News Consumer Variables

  • Exploratory Data Analysis: logistic model



Retrospective voting terrifying real world conditions in 2010

Table 2: Real world developments according to the media campaigns

retrospective voting: terrifying real-world conditions in 2010


Issue positions 2010 what happened with leftist issues

Table 3: Issue positions of parties in 2010 election campaign according to the media, weighted by media attention

Issue Positions 2010: what happened with leftist issues?

Issue positions of parties in 2010 election campaign according to the media,

weighted by media attention


Issue ownership issue reputations march n 1804

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010

Issue ownership: issue reputations March (n=1804)


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel
Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? 2010

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010

Feb 19th – April 11th


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel1
Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? 2010

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010

April 26th – May 9th


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel2
Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? 2010

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010

May 10h – May 23trd


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel3
Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? 2010

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel4
Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? 2010

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010


Conflict coop between and within wie krijgt er smoel5
Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? 2010

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010


Voter flows june 7 th 8 th as compared to 2006 elections
Voter flows: June 7 2010th-8th as compared to 2006 elections






Voter flows june 7 th 8 th as compared to 2010 mun el march
Voter flows:June 7 2010th-8th as compared to 2010 mun.el.March


Voter flows
Voter flows 2010

May 17th- May 23rd





Early april vvd more success than pvda
Early april: VVD more success than PvdA 2010

March 29th - April 11th




Logistic model per party
Logistic model per party given week

  • Christian Democrats (CDA)

    • strong impact of the (negative) media performance of the party on the voters (leadership of Balkenende, extramarital affair of family man De Vries).

    • Impact of news on struggles within (doubts about Balkenende, De Vries)

    • positive impact with their issue positions, for example with a strong position against crime.

  • The Socialist Party (SP)

    • Until May 23rd unable in 2010 to make impressions on the voters with issue positions.

    • Strong recovery after 2nd television debate; the come back of leftist issues


Logistic model per party1
Logistic model per party given week

  • The Labour Party (PvdA)

    • did not succeed in making an impact with its issue positions in addition to the effects of subjective media performance until late April

    • Shifts of voters to, or from the party can be explained best by news on successes and failures (e.g. by the great successes attributed to the major of Amsterdam in his political honeymoon month) and by news about the support for (praise, positive remarks, rather than criticisms on!) the new leader of the Labour Party in the early weeks of the election campaign

  • VVD

    • strong impact due to its issue positions on rightist issues (cuts in government expenditures, tax cuts), government efficiency, norms and values.


Evaluation of the campaign
Evaluation of the campaign given week

  • Highlights

    • Respect of party leaders for each other

    • Issues, although not always the most relevant issues (not: EU, Afghanistan, climate)

  • Sense of shame

    • Fragmented television debates  fragmented political landscape

    • lack of clarity with regard to social effects of party programmes (e.g. de Volkskrant – Nyfer)

    • NOS journaal Mai 1st: internal dissent news about anonymous CDA-leaders who did not trust Balkenende


Summary discussion dutch elections 2010
Summary / Discussion Dutch Elections 2010 given week

  • It’s cuts in government expenditures,

  • It’s only the right side of the left-right axis

  • It’s the VVD



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