GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000
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The End of Hunger in the 21st Century: Myth or Reality? Dr. Liz Young Staffordshire University. Overview. Contemporary geography of world hunger Estimates for the 21st century Ways Forward: strategies and debates Issues for the 21st century.

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The end of hunger in the 21st century myth or reality dr liz young staffordshire university

The End of Hunger in the 21st Century: Myth or Reality?Dr. Liz YoungStaffordshire University

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Overview
Overview

  • Contemporary geography of world hunger

  • Estimates for the 21st century

  • Ways Forward: strategies and debates

  • Issues for the 21st century

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


  • “Almost 800 million people in the developing world do not have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity”

  • (FAO, 2000)

  • “ Both developed and developing nations are paying a high price for malnutrition. The World Bank estimates that hunger cost India between 3% and 9% of its GDP in 1996. And obesity cost the United States 12% of its national health care budget in the late 1990’s, $118 billion, more than double the $47 billion attributed to smoking”

  • (Halweil, 2000)

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Contemporary hunger
Contemporary Hunger have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity”

  • Chronic Hunger: contemporary patterns

    • 791 million people in developing world

    • 34 million in ‘transitional economies’

    • Total 825 million

    • New statistic measures ‘depth’ of hunger and reflects very different character of hunger within these broad categories( range from 150-450 kilo-calorie deficits per day)

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Contemporary hunger continued
Contemporary Hunger have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” continued

  • New maps now available which measure degree of food deprivation where:

    • 1 is low prevalence and low depth and

    • 5 is high prevalence and high depth

  • 23 countries in SSA and Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Haiti, Mongolia and North Korea all receive 5 in the latest FAO report http://www.fao.org/FOCUS/E/SOF100/sofi008-e.htm

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Table 1 geography of contemporary hunger
Table 1 have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” Geography of Contemporary Hunger

180

33

53

164

204

791

34

825

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

  • N East/N Africa

  • Latin America/Caribbean

  • China

  • India

  • TOTAL

  • **Transitional economies

  • TOTAL

**Transitional economies of former Soviet Union (now the Commonwealth of Independent States). Russia and the Asian and Caucasian Republics have seen the re-emergence of malnutrition as public social provisioning

has collapsed in post-1991 circumstances.

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Table 2 have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” Geography of Contemporary Hunger% of total population

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

  • N East/N Africa

  • Latin America/Caribbean

  • China/India

  • Other Asia

  • AVERAGE

34

10

11

16

19

18

  • Source: Food and Agricultural Organisation (2000) The State of Food Insecurity

  • http://www.fao.org/NEWS/FACTFILE/FF9702-E.HTM

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Summary
Summary have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity”

  • China and India still greatest numbers but experiencing declines

  • SSA greatest incidence and greatest ‘depth’ of hunger (recent statistic used to reflect extent of calorie deficit)

  • 1970: 920 million

  • 2000: 792 million

  • Progress uneven

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Estimates for the 21st century
Estimates for the 21st century have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity”

  • Estimated 580 million by 2015

  • 400 million was target for 2015 of World Food Summit, 1996

  • Progress, but not enough

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Estimates for the 21st century continued
Estimates for the 21st century have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” continued

  • Success Stories

  • Ghana and Nigeria

    • 1979 - 1996: 30% decline

    • in malnutrition

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Estimates for the 21st century have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” continued

  • Thailand

    • State intervention to target vulnerable groups

    • 1988: 32.6% in poverty

    • 1996: 11.4%

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Estimates for the 21st century continued1
Estimates for the 21st century have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” continued

  • Caution!

  • Predictions are notoriously difficult and human history is full of unexpected surprises. (emergence of malnutrition in former Soviet Union and famines in 1930s, 1950s)

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Ways forward food security in the 21st century
Ways Forward: have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” food security in the 21st century

  • ‘Past experience suggests that chronic hunger could be conquered within this century’ (FAO, 16th October 2000 World Food Day ‘a millennium free from hunger’)

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Ways Forward: have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” food security in the 21st century continued

  • The conventional way:

    • Globalisation, free markets and corporate control

    • ‘Britain will this year export 111 million litres of milk and 47 million kilograms of butter, while simultaneously importing 173 million litres of milk and 49 million kilograms of butter’ (Norberg-Hodge, 1999 p209)

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Ways Forward: have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” food security in the 21st century continued

  • Decline of local provisioning

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Ways Forward: have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” food security in the 21st century continued

  • Technologically based: ‘agricultural industrialisation’

    • Mechanisation

    • Chemical farming

    • Food manufacturing

  • Diffusion of technologically agricultural production

    • Green Revolution of 1970’s

    • Genetically modified crops

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Ways Forward: have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” food security in the 21st century continued

  • Intensive production systems

    • High energy inputs

    • Increases in irrigated land

    • ‘Landless’ production systems

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Ways Forward: have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity” food security in 21st centurycontinued

  • Export orientated systems

  • ‘Developing countries will become increasingly dependent on imports of cereals. Their net cereal imports are expected to rise from 107 million tonnes in 1995/97 to 270 million tonnes in2030’ (see review at:http://www.fao.org/NEWS/2000/000704-e.htm)

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


The case against more of the same
The case against more of the same: have enough to eat. Another 34 million people in the industrialised countries and countries in transition also suffer from chronic food insecurity”

  • Unsustainable nature of current system

    • http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/

  • Vulnerability to collapse

    • http://www.grain.org/publications/set00/set003.htm

  • Environmental impacts

    • http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/events/reith 2000/lecture5.stm

    • http://www.worldwatch.org/chairman/issue/000502.html

    • http://www.cgiar.org/ifpri/pressre/052500.htm

  • Mounting evidence of social impacts

    • http://www.worldwatch.org/alerts/000901.html

    • http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/events/reith 2000/lecture5.stm

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


  • ‘Meanwhile, mono-culture farming based on industrial techniques, vast transport systems and elaborate commercial and financial instruments, are being rapidly exported to the rest of the world. The complexity and self-renewal of those systems are in danger, as is biological diversity and the renewal of water and air cycles necessary to human life’ (Friedman, 2000 p150)

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Conclusion revisiting food security
Conclusion: Revisiting food security techniques, vast transport systems and elaborate commercial and financial instruments, are being rapidly exported to the rest of the world. The complexity and self-renewal of those systems are in danger, as is biological diversity and the renewal of water and air cycles necessary to human life’

  • ‘food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels . . is achieved when all people, at all times have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’

  • (World Food Summit, 1996)

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Conclusion revisiting food security continued
Conclusion techniques, vast transport systems and elaborate commercial and financial instruments, are being rapidly exported to the rest of the world. The complexity and self-renewal of those systems are in danger, as is biological diversity and the renewal of water and air cycles necessary to human life’ : Revisiting food securitycontinued

  • ‘Sufficient’ remains an important objective

  • ‘Safe’ food globally

    • http://notmilk.com/

  • ‘nutritious’ food globally (the face of malnutrition in the 21st c?)

    • http://www.worldwatch.org/alerts/000304.htm

  • ‘choice’ for consumers

    • http://www.oneworld.org/ni/issue325/bite.htm

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Conclusion techniques, vast transport systems and elaborate commercial and financial instruments, are being rapidly exported to the rest of the world. The complexity and self-renewal of those systems are in danger, as is biological diversity and the renewal of water and air cycles necessary to human life’ : Revisiting food securitycontinued

  • sustainability in both regions

    • http://www.christian-aid.org.uk/news/latest/brief15500.htm

    • http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/Archive/Articke/0,4273,4012574,00.html

    • http://www.faoorg/NEWS/FACTFILE/FF9810-E.HTM (urban populations)

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


Conclusion continued
Conclusion techniques, vast transport systems and elaborate commercial and financial instruments, are being rapidly exported to the rest of the world. The complexity and self-renewal of those systems are in danger, as is biological diversity and the renewal of water and air cycles necessary to human life’ continued

  • Halting the decline of the planet’s life-support systems may be the most difficult challenge humanity has ever faced’ (Lash quoted in IFPRI, 2000 p1)

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


The end

THE END techniques, vast transport systems and elaborate commercial and financial instruments, are being rapidly exported to the rest of the world. The complexity and self-renewal of those systems are in danger, as is biological diversity and the renewal of water and air cycles necessary to human life’

GEOGRAPHICAL ASSOCIATION MEETING NOVEMBER 2000


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