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NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability 10th December 2013

NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability 10th December 2013. UK Energy Futures: The Triple Challenges of Energy Security, Climate Change and Affordability. Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007. Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, Cenv

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NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability 10th December 2013

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  1. NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability 10th December 2013 UK Energy Futures: The Triple Challenges of Energy Security, Climate Change and Affordability Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5th October 2007 Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, Cenv Reader Emeritus in Environmental Sciences k.tovey@uea.ac.uk

  2. Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012 • Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km • Red line outlines extent for reference • Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km • a loss of 51% in 33 years • Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum • Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html

  3. Is Global Warming natural or man-made? • Natural causes • Earth’s Orbit • Sunspot Activity • Volcanic Eruptions • Etc. • Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

  4. Temperature variations in last 160 years www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_11-014_Warmest_Year.htm

  5. Import Gap Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK Until 2004, the UK was a net exporter of gas. Currently only 50% now provided by UK sources. Reduction because of switch back to coal In early March 2013, technical issues with pipe line from Norway and restrictions on LNG imports made UK gas supply tight. In late March things became even more critical with less than 1 days supply available.

  6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods ? * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

  7. Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK Import Gap Gas Production and Demand in UK Only 50% now provided by UK sources. Warning issued on 17th April 2012 that over-reliance on Norway and imported LNG from Qatar will lead to price rises by end of year Severe Cold Spells Langeled Line to Norway Oil reaches $130 a barrel UK no longer self sufficient in gas Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.

  8. What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem? How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others? France UK Per capita Carbon Emissions 8

  9. Carbon Emissions and Electricity UK France 9

  10. Mean Daily Electricity Generation in November Interconnectors Other Hydro Wind Oil Coal CCGT Nuclear

  11. Daily Electricity Generation in November

  12. What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem? How do UK and Saudi Arabia compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others? Saudi Arabia France World Average UK Per capita Carbon Emissions (tonnes per capita) 12

  13. How does electricity consumption vary between countries? • Why do very similar countries (e.g. Norway and Sweden) have very different levels of consumption? • What environmental impact might these differences have?

  14. Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. • Transmission/Distribution losses • UK ~ 8%: Saudi Arabia 9%: India ~ 24%

  15. CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh) Saudi Arabia UK Saudi Arabia World Average 0.550 France Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh 15

  16. Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro/ Tidal/Wave Other Renewables Biofuels/Waste 16

  17. Conventional Generation of Electricity Largest loss in Power Station 1.0 Unit Overall efficiency ~ 35% Diagram illustrates situation with conventional generation using coal, oil, gas or nuclear 17

  18. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020. ? Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009

  19. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year Future prices from * Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee

  20. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

  21. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  22. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW. Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  23. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  24. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable No sound on video Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  25. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Video of device There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device ScotRenewables Floating device Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007 Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013 Video of device There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  26. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs In Orkney – Churchill Barriers Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south. Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  27. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  28. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

  29. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. • Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years. • [very expensive or technically immature or both] • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? • Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee • [9th May 2011] If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

  30. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS • for around 70% of our heating and electricity • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

  31. Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation Version suitable for Office 2007 & 2010 • 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020. • 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020 • 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now Fracked Gas • Limited electric cars or heat pumps Imported Gas Oil UK Gas Offshore Wind Existing Coal Onshore Wind Oil Other Renewables Existing Nuclear Existing Coal New Coal ? Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. New Nuclear? Existing Nuclear Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Data for demand derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. 31

  32. Sustainable Options for the future? • Energy Generation • Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses • Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation • Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years). • The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get! • Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2012 • Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer • Approximate annual estimate of generation • = installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095 hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

  33. Raising Awareness How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. 5 hot air balloons per person per year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

  34. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year • ~ 500 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances • up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

  35. Conclusions • Hard Choices face the UK in the next 5 years • Contrary to popular belief, support for renewables has been responsible for less than 10% of rise in bills in last 8 years. • Increases in fossil fuel prices has been much more significant factor and will continue to do so. • Headlines following publication of Energy Bill last week suggest bills will include £100 in support of nuclear and renewables, • But fossil fuel prices are likely to rise substantially • |Doing nothing will mean that bills will be more by 2020 than they otherwise would be. • Lack of forward planning in the past, Energy Security is now a critical issue - only Wind (Onshore and Offshore) and potentially INSECURE gas can plug the gap post 2015. "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

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