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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

This review explores the Earth's dominant interannual climate signal, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its global impacts on weather, climate, natural disasters, transportation, ecosystems, agriculture, fisheries, water, food, energy, health, and commerce. It discusses the vulnerability to future ENSOs, unresolved issues in distinguishing natural versus anthropogenic risk, changes in the phenomenon, teleconnections, and impacts. The review also highlights the groundbreaking ENSO research and collaborations undertaken by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) on ENSO mechanisms, modulation, sensitivities, extratropical impacts, decadal signals, drought, paleoclimates, pseudoproxies, role of volcanoes, community metrics, diagnostic submodels, and visualization. It concludes by discussing the effects of anthropogenic warming on ENSO impacts and the implications for future climate change.

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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

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  1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009

  2. Climate Change and ENSO Presented by Andrew Wittenberg

  3. ENSO: Earth's dominant interannual climate signal Normal El Niño • Global impacts: • weather & climate, natural disasters, transportation • ecosystems, agriculture, fisheries • water, food, energy, health, commerce • How vulnerable are we to future ENSOs? • unresolved in AR4: natural vs. anthropogenic risk • changes in phenomenon vs. teleconnections vs. impacts • short, gappy, nonstationary obs system models crucial • coupling & scale interactions key test for models

  4. GFDL: Strongly positioned in the ENSO community • World-class ENSO simulations • Realistic ENSO patterns, mechanisms, teleconnections • Rich spectrum of ENSO behavior • Stable 2000yr control run Wittenberg et al., Delworth et al., Capotondi et al., Merryfield et al., Joseph & Nigam, (all JC 2006)‏; van Oldenborgh et al. (OS 2005); Guilyardi (CD 2006); Reichler & Kim (BAMS 2008)‏; Wittenberg (GRL 2009) Groundbreaking ENSO research & collaborations • ENSO mechanisms, modulation, andsensitivities • Extratropical impacts, decadal signals, drought • Paleoclimates & pseudoproxies; role of volcanoes • Community metrics; diagnostic submodels; visualization Sample of external collaborations: Alexander et al. (2004), Vecchi & Harrison (JC 2006), Gebbie et al. (JAS 2007), Kim et al. (CD 2008), Zavala-Garay et al. (JC 2008), Sukharev et al. (IEEE 2009), Lengaigne & Vecchi (CD 2009)

  5. ENSO modulation implies “natural” risks Wittenberg (GRL 2009)‏ NINO3 SST, running annual mean

  6. 1860: Spread of 100yr NINO3 SST spectra 286 ppmv

  7. 1990: Stronger annual cycle & ENSO 353 ppmv

  8. 2xCO2: A perfect climate for ENSO? 572 ppmv

  9. 4xCO2: Stronger annual cycle, but weaker ENSO 1144 ppmv

  10. Anthropogenic warming alters ENSO impacts

  11. Summary 1.CM2.1 ENSO simulation is among the world's best • Clarifying ENSO mechanisms & sensitivities • GFDL AR5 models: new feedbacks & impacts 2.2000yr run highlights “natural” ENSO risks • Modulation: Have we observed long enough? • Are extreme ENSO epochs predictable? 3.Climate change affects ENSO & its impacts • Optimal climate for ENSO: which side are we on? • Warmer warm pool: alters U.S. vulnerability to ENSO • How best to extrapolate from model projections to reality?

  12. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

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