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???? ????. 3. ?????????. ?????????????????? ??????(the Law of Large Numbers)????????? ????:???????,??????????????? . ???? ????. 4. ?????????????????? . 1.??????????????????????? 2.?????????????????????(payoff) 3.????1?2??????,??????? 4.?3??????????????????????????????? . ???? ????. 5. ??????
E N D
1. ???? ???? 1 ??? ???????????? ????????????
2. ???? ???? 2 ???????????? ??????????????????
????
??????:???????????
?????:???????????
3. ???? ???? 3 ????????? ??????????????????
??????(the Law of Large Numbers)?????????
????:???????,???????????????
4. ???? ???? 4 ?????????????????? 1.???????????????????????
2.?????????????????????(payoff)
3.????1?2??????,???????
4.?3???????????????????????????????
5. ???? ???? 5 ???????????????? ????????????????????ei,????St??????r??????s????????T-t?????(4.1)????????????
?????????????Max( -K,0)
????????m????????
??????????????????
6. ???? ???? 6 ???????????????? ????????????????????,????St??????r??????s??????t?????(4.2)????????? ??????????????????????,??????????????r??????s??????t?????(4.3)????????? ?????,?????St+3?t ?St+4?t ? St+5?t?St+6?t
7. ???? ???? 7 ????????????????(Cont) ?????????????
????????m????
??????????????????
8. ???? ???? 8 ????? ??????????????(tree model)????????
?????????,???????????????????
???????????????????
???????(Central Limit Theorem)? ???
9. ???? ???? 9 ???????
10. ???? ???? 10 ???????? JR tree: u= d= P=1/2
CRR tree: u= d=1/u
P=(er?t-d)/(u-d)
11. ???? ???? 11 ????????????? ???????????????????Max(Stun-jdj-K, 0)?(j=0,1,2,…,n)
????????????
??????????????????
12. ???? ???? 12 ????????????? ?????83???84?
13. ???? ???? 13 ??????? ???(Brennan and Swhartz, 1977)
??????(Boyle, 1977)
????
?????(Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein, 1979)
?????(Boyle, 1988)
????? (Duan et. al., 2003)