Population growth and housing in california
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Population Growth and Housing in California. Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California [email protected] Outline. Demographic determinants of housing demand Population changes for key groups Regional patterns Public opinion.

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Population Growth and Housing in California

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Population growth and housing in california

Population Growth and Housing in California

Hans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of California

[email protected]


Outline

Outline

  • Demographic determinants of housing demand

  • Population changes for key groups

  • Regional patterns

  • Public opinion


Average annual population change and new housing units by decade

Average Annual Population Change and New Housing Units by Decade


Average annual population change and new housing units by decade1

Average Annual Population Change and New Housing Units by Decade


Average annual population change and new housing units by decade2

Average Annual Population Change and New Housing Units by Decade


Why the mismatch between population growth and housing

Why the mismatch between population growth and housing?

  • Insufficient supply of new housing

  • Not all population growth is equal with respect to generating housing demand:

    • Children do not form their own households

    • Young adults have low household formation rates

    • Immigrants and Latinos tend to have higher family and household sizes


Householder rates vary by age

Householder rates vary by age

Probability of Being a Householder by Age, California 2001

50.0%

45.0%

40.0%

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

18-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

65-74

75+


Householder rates vary by nativity and ethnicity

Householder rates vary by nativity and ethnicity

Age standardized householder rates among adults in 2000


Outline1

Outline

  • Demographic determinants of housing demand

  • Population changes for key groups

  • Regional patterns

  • Public opinion


Absolute population growth will be strong this decade

Absolute population growth will be strong this decade

Historic and Projected Decennial Change in California’s Population


Increase in adult population was much lower in the 1990s than in the 1980s but

Increase in adult population was much lower in the 1990s than in the 1980s, but…


Projections show strong growth in adult populations in the next two decades

…projections show strong growth in adult populations in the next two decades


Growth in u s born population also slowed substantially but

Growth in U.S.-born population alsoslowed substantially, but…


Second generation will reach prime household formation ages

…second generation will reach prime household formation ages

Population by immigrant generation, 2000


Outline2

Outline

  • Demographic determinants of housing demand

  • Population changes for key groups

  • Regional patterns

  • Public opinion


Highest population growth rates in inland regions

Highest populationgrowth rates in inland regions


Median rents in counties with high rent burdens

Median Rents in Counties with High Rent Burdens

Source: PPIC tabulations of 2000 census; includes counties with at

least 37 percent of renters paying at least 35 percent of income on rent


California s most crowded places

California’s Most Crowded Places


Outline3

Outline

  • Demographic determinants of housing demand

  • Population changes for key groups

  • Regional patterns

  • Public opinion


Percent who say issue is a big problem now

Percent who say issue is a “big problem” now


Confidence in state government s ability to plan for future growth is low

Confidence in state government’sability to plan for future growth is low

How much confidence do you have in the state government’s

Ability to plan for the state’s future and growth?


Percent who say the following problems will get worse by 2025

Percent who say the following problems will get worse by 2025


New housing units authorized 1963 2004

New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004


Ratio of population change to new housing units authorized 1963 2004

Ratio of Population Change to New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004


Population change and new housing units authorized 1963 2004

Population Change and New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004


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