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Population Growth and Housing in California. Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California [email protected] Outline. Demographic determinants of housing demand Population changes for key groups Regional patterns Public opinion.

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Population growth and housing in california

Population Growth and Housing in California

Hans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of California

[email protected]


Outline
Outline

  • Demographic determinants of housing demand

  • Population changes for key groups

  • Regional patterns

  • Public opinion





Why the mismatch between population growth and housing
Why the mismatch between population growth and housing? Decade

  • Insufficient supply of new housing

  • Not all population growth is equal with respect to generating housing demand:

    • Children do not form their own households

    • Young adults have low household formation rates

    • Immigrants and Latinos tend to have higher family and household sizes


Householder rates vary by age
Householder rates vary by age Decade

Probability of Being a Householder by Age, California 2001

50.0%

45.0%

40.0%

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

18-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

65-74

75+


Householder rates vary by nativity and ethnicity
Householder rates vary Decadeby nativity and ethnicity

Age standardized householder rates among adults in 2000


Outline1
Outline Decade

  • Demographic determinants of housing demand

  • Population changes for key groups

  • Regional patterns

  • Public opinion


Absolute population growth will be strong this decade
Absolute population growth Decadewill be strong this decade

Historic and Projected Decennial Change in California’s Population




Growth in u s born population also slowed substantially but
Growth in U.S.-born population also the next two decadesslowed substantially, but…


Second generation will reach prime household formation ages
…second generation will reach prime household formation ages

Population by immigrant generation, 2000


Outline2
Outline ages

  • Demographic determinants of housing demand

  • Population changes for key groups

  • Regional patterns

  • Public opinion


Highest population growth rates in inland regions
Highest population agesgrowth rates in inland regions


Median rents in counties with high rent burdens
Median Rents in Counties with agesHigh Rent Burdens

Source: PPIC tabulations of 2000 census; includes counties with at

least 37 percent of renters paying at least 35 percent of income on rent



Outline3
Outline ages

  • Demographic determinants of housing demand

  • Population changes for key groups

  • Regional patterns

  • Public opinion


Percent who say issue is a big problem now
Percent who say issue is agesa “big problem” now


Confidence in state government s ability to plan for future growth is low
Confidence in state government’s agesability to plan for future growth is low

How much confidence do you have in the state government’s

Ability to plan for the state’s future and growth?




Ratio of population change to new housing units authorized 1963 2004
Ratio of Population Change to 2025New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004


Population change and new housing units authorized 1963 2004
Population Change and 2025New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004


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