Status of capacities for climate services provision in the caribbean
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Status of Capacities for Climate Services Provision in the Caribbean. Adrian Trotman Chief, Applied Meteorology and Climatology Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize 30 October to 1 November 2013,

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Status of capacities for climate services provision in the caribbean

Status of Capacities for Climate Services Provision in theCaribbean

Adrian Trotman

Chief, Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

30 October to 1 November 2013,

Belize City, Belize.


Caribbean institute for meteorology and hydrology primary functions
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and HydrologyPRIMARY FUNCTIONS

  • Train various categories of meteorological and hydrological personnel

  • Operate as a centre of research in meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences

  • Data collection, storage, & dissemination

  • Maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments

  • Advise regional governments on matters related to meteorology & hydrology

  • Provide consulting services to industry

  • Now Regional Climate Centre in demonstration phase

An arm of the

Caribbean Meteorological Organisation





Seasonal Rainfall Prediction with use of climate prediction models Global and Regional

3 to 6 months forecasts


Monthly Caribbean climate outlook newsletter

Seasonal climate

and impacts monitoring

+

Seasonal climate

forecasts

http://www.cimh.edu.bb/?p=precipoutlook


Climate MonitoringExampleCaribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring NetworkFocus next on temperature Monitoring


Why concerns over drought?

Wet season rainfall as a percentage of annual rainfall (Enfield and Alfaro, 1999).

Seasonal Impacts

Moving 10 year averages of rainfall at Edgecumbe, Barbados (Burton 1995).

Impacts potentially more severe during drier phases.

Future dryer and warmer regime likely to increase frequency of drought episodes



Response caribbean drought and precipitation monitoring network cdpmn
ResponseCaribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CDPMN)

CDPMN launched under Caribbean Water Initiative CARIWIN in January 2009 expected to be fully operational by the end of 2010

  • Two Scales of Monitoring

  • Caribbean Basin

  • Country-level

  • Precipitation status monitored using a number of indices

  • Final precipitation status determined, by consensus, by a network of persons from different sectors, institutions and communities embracing the diversity in definitions and impacts of drought

  • Short term and seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide a projection of future drought (1 - 6 months possible)


Depicting the 2009-2010 Drought

Monitoring: Caribbean SPI and Deciles(Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network)Prediction: Caribbean seasonal precipitation outlook (CIMH and CariCOF)


In total contrast to 2010, the 2011 and 2012 dry seasons were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned out


Caricom brazil programme in drr drought
CARICOM/Brazil programme in DRR were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned outDrought

  • Implemented by CIMH

  • Pilot Countries: Grenada, St. Lucia, Jamaica

  • Training in drought monitoring and planning (assisted by NDMC)

  • Provision of monitoring instruments (illustrative)

  • Upgrade of CWM

  • Draft Implementation plans for DEWIS (to Cabinet)…

  • In the context of a Drought Management framework


Framework for national drought management
Framework for National Drought Management were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned out

Focus on Drought Early Warning & Information Systems


Caribbean were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned outAgrometeorological Initiative (CAMI)An example of Weather and Climate Serviceswww.cimh.edu.bb/cami


CAMI were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned out

Funded by the EU under the ACP S&T Programme

Implemented by CIMH (Project Manager), CARDI, WMO and Ten National Meteorological Services

to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information using an integrated and coordinated approach

Information providers, users and media

www.cimh.edu.bb/cami


Specific activities of the action 1
Specific Activities of the Action were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned out 1

  • Seasonal Rainfall Prediction through analysis of long-term climatic data and use of seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction models

  • Use of rainy season prediction and near-real time weather information to support management decisions such as especially irrigation scheduling

  • Working with the agricultural research and extension agencies in developing an effective pest and disease forecasting system


Specific activities of the action 2
Specific Activities of the Action were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned out 2

  • Preparation and wide diffusion of a user-friendly weather and climate information newsletters/bulletins

  • Organization of regular forums with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate information

  • Building capacity of the Meteorological and Agricultural Services and research institutions


Statistical were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned out

Analyses

Crop and Irrigation Simultion

Developing forecasting systems for selected pests and diseases


Supporting management decisions such as for were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned outirrigation scheduling and quantities

Using Aquacrop and INSTAT for example


Means for Dissemination and were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned out

Effective Communication – Strategy involving any media that can reach farmers in a language they can understand

Also a Regional Monthly Bulletin – already 23 volumes

Preparation and dissemination of a user-friendly weather and climate bulletins and information

Daily, week ten-daily, monthly, seasonally

Print, radio, television, mobile/cellular, telecentres


Regular forums with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate information and feedback for Met Services

Seasonal and weather Forecasting and information, drought, irrigation, crop simulation, pests and diseases

825 participants during 27 forums engaged


Rescue and Digitise hard copy information extension agencies to promote

Data sharing, protocols

All data to a centralised system

Database developed – To pursue light versions – Synchrony

Denser, strategic climate observation network, Global data systems, Remote Sensing

IT support

Effective Data Management and Observation System


Recommendations for policy makers
Recommendations for extension agencies to promote Policy Makers


Potential in water resources management
Potential in extension agencies to promote Water Resources Management


Developing useful hydrological services from weather and climate s cience
Developing extension agencies to promote Useful Hydrological Services From Weather and Climate Science

  • High-resolution weather and climate scenarios are used in conjunction with hydrological models to predict water balance and dynamics for complex topography

    • Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

    • Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model

    • ParFlow (coupled with CLM and WRF) hydrologic model

  • Operationalize predictions of spatial and temporal variability of climate-induced hydrologic changes

    • Short-term : generation of monthly, seasonal and annual hydrologic forecasts

    • Long-term : comprehensive projections of hydrologic impacts to year 2100

      • changes in hydro-climate variability and extremes

      • causes of changes in extreme behavior

    • Near-term : decadal and multi-decadal hydrologic predictions including hydro-climatic predictions to year 2035


Climate forecasts in hydrological terms
Climate Forecasts in Hydrological Terms extension agencies to promote

  • Downscale to resolve mismatch in spatial and temporal scales

  • Hydrologic models

    • solve equations subject to meteorological forcing

    • Compute water balance:

      • runoff

      • evaporation

      • transpiration

      • soil water storage

      • percolation/recharge

HYDROLOGICAL / CROP MODEL


Example output
Example Output extension agencies to promote

Day of Year


Thank you
Thank you extension agencies to promote


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