Members seminar 24th november 2011
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Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011. Estimates, Budget and Precepts 2012/2013 to 2016/2017 . Background. Medium Term Financial Strategy encourages a look beyond the next year to 2016/2017 Potential variability limits certainty 2012/2013 slightly riskier than the current year

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Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011

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Members seminar 24th november 2011

Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011

Estimates, Budget and Precepts

2012/2013 to 2016/2017

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Background

Background

  • Medium Term Financial Strategy encourages a look beyond the next year to 2016/2017

  • Potential variability limits certainty

  • 2012/2013 slightly riskier than the current year

  • Not nearly as risky as 2013/2014 and beyond

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


2012 2013 assumptions

2012/2013 Assumptions

  • Pay Award of between 0% and 2.5%

  • General Price Inflation of 0%

  • Zero Contribution From District Collection Funds

  • Marginal Increase in Taxbase

  • Freeze Grant of between Nil and £560,000

  • Council Tax increase between 0% and 3.2%

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Downward pressure

Downward Pressure

  • Staff Cost Savings £843,000

  • Non Staff Savings £691,000

  • Income Generation £272,000

  • Pensions Neutral

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Upward pressure

Upward Pressure

  • Committed Staff Costs £284,000

  • Uncommitted Staff Costs £65,000

  • Committed Growth Non Staff £969,000

  • Capital Financing £213,000

  • Income Reduction £103,000

  • Contractual Inflation £148,000

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


A balanced base budget

A Balanced Base Budget

  • Marginal Decrease in Base Service Requirement of 0.1% (£30,000)

  • 0.6% increase in Council Tax

  • Manage Reduction in Budget (£110,000) to achieve Zero Increase in Council Tax

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


2013 14 2016 17

2013/14 – 2016/17

  • 2% Pay p.a and 3% 2016/17

  • 2% pa increase in Council Tax

  • Grant profile -8.5%, -5% (CLG) then +2%, +2%

  • General Non Staff Costs Pressures 3%p.a

  • Then Balanced 2012/13 Budget requires Savings of £3.47m

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Variations on a theme no 1

Variations on a Theme – No.1

  • Assume Pay increase of 2.5% 2012/2013

  • Increase Council Tax by 3.2%

  • Nil Freeze Grant

  • If Pay is 5% Increase Council Tax by 5.5%

  • A realistic Pay Assumption? (Summary)

  • 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £3.38m required

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Variation no 2

Variation No.2

  • Assume Nil Pay Award 2012/13

  • Budget for zero increase in Council Tax and claim Freeze Grant

  • 2013/2014 to 2016/17: Savings of £3.49m required

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Variation no 3

Variation No.3

  • Assume Pay Award of 2.5% 2012/13

  • Budget for zero increase in Council Tax

  • Claim Freeze Grant which covers 2.5% Pay Increase (c £500,000)

  • 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £4.0m required

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Variation no 4

Variation No.4

  • As V3 but Use Reserves in lieu of Savings

  • Current Forecast £5.8m

  • Gone by 2015/2016

  • Council Tax increase of 19% in 2015/16

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Variation no 5

Variation No.5

  • As V3 but let Council Tax take the Strain

  • 12/13 - 3.2%

  • 13/14 - 10.3%

  • 14/15 - 6.0%

  • 15/16 - 4.3%

  • 16/17 - 2.7%

  • Practical? A lost referendum would add 5.2%

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Variation no 6

Variation No.6

  • V4 and V5 Clearly Imprudent

  • so it could be all about timing and

  • Realism of assumptions (CPI of 2%?)

  • So..Council Tax Freeze 2012/013

  • Use Some Reserves (£0.5m)

  • 3% pa Council Tax after 2012/2013

  • 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £3.2m required (Show Summary)

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Strategy options

Strategy/Options

  • Still Much to be Determined

  • Manageable in 2012/2013 but cashflow of future reductions needs to be considered

  • No Apparent Incentive to Increase Council Tax for 2012/2013

  • “Acceptable” Level of Council Tax increase 2013/2014?

  • Plan for V3, Settle for V6

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


Strategy options1

Strategy/Options

  • Compliance – Need to Do?

  • Cost Control

  • Rationalisation

  • General Savings and Efficiency Drives

  • Reserves and/or Council Tax

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service


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