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Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011. Estimates, Budget and Precepts 2012/2013 to 2016/2017 . Background. Medium Term Financial Strategy encourages a look beyond the next year to 2016/2017 Potential variability limits certainty 2012/2013 slightly riskier than the current year

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members seminar 24th november 2011
Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011

Estimates, Budget and Precepts

2012/2013 to 2016/2017

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

background
Background
  • Medium Term Financial Strategy encourages a look beyond the next year to 2016/2017
  • Potential variability limits certainty
  • 2012/2013 slightly riskier than the current year
  • Not nearly as risky as 2013/2014 and beyond

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

2012 2013 assumptions
2012/2013 Assumptions
  • Pay Award of between 0% and 2.5%
  • General Price Inflation of 0%
  • Zero Contribution From District Collection Funds
  • Marginal Increase in Taxbase
  • Freeze Grant of between Nil and £560,000
  • Council Tax increase between 0% and 3.2%

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

downward pressure
Downward Pressure
  • Staff Cost Savings £843,000
  • Non Staff Savings £691,000
  • Income Generation £272,000
  • Pensions Neutral

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

upward pressure
Upward Pressure
  • Committed Staff Costs £284,000
  • Uncommitted Staff Costs £65,000
  • Committed Growth Non Staff £969,000
  • Capital Financing £213,000
  • Income Reduction £103,000
  • Contractual Inflation £148,000

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

a balanced base budget
A Balanced Base Budget
  • Marginal Decrease in Base Service Requirement of 0.1% (£30,000)
  • 0.6% increase in Council Tax
  • Manage Reduction in Budget (£110,000) to achieve Zero Increase in Council Tax

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

2013 14 2016 17
2013/14 – 2016/17
  • 2% Pay p.a and 3% 2016/17
  • 2% pa increase in Council Tax
  • Grant profile -8.5%, -5% (CLG) then +2%, +2%
  • General Non Staff Costs Pressures 3%p.a
  • Then Balanced 2012/13 Budget requires Savings of £3.47m

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

variations on a theme no 1
Variations on a Theme – No.1
  • Assume Pay increase of 2.5% 2012/2013
  • Increase Council Tax by 3.2%
  • Nil Freeze Grant
  • If Pay is 5% Increase Council Tax by 5.5%
  • A realistic Pay Assumption? (Summary)
  • 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £3.38m required

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

variation no 2
Variation No.2
  • Assume Nil Pay Award 2012/13
  • Budget for zero increase in Council Tax and claim Freeze Grant
  • 2013/2014 to 2016/17: Savings of £3.49m required

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

variation no 3
Variation No.3
  • Assume Pay Award of 2.5% 2012/13
  • Budget for zero increase in Council Tax
  • Claim Freeze Grant which covers 2.5% Pay Increase (c £500,000)
  • 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £4.0m required

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

variation no 4
Variation No.4
  • As V3 but Use Reserves in lieu of Savings
  • Current Forecast £5.8m
  • Gone by 2015/2016
  • Council Tax increase of 19% in 2015/16

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

variation no 5
Variation No.5
  • As V3 but let Council Tax take the Strain
  • 12/13 - 3.2%
  • 13/14 - 10.3%
  • 14/15 - 6.0%
  • 15/16 - 4.3%
  • 16/17 - 2.7%
  • Practical? A lost referendum would add 5.2%

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

variation no 6
Variation No.6
  • V4 and V5 Clearly Imprudent
  • so it could be all about timing and
  • Realism of assumptions (CPI of 2%?)
  • So..Council Tax Freeze 2012/013
  • Use Some Reserves (£0.5m)
  • 3% pa Council Tax after 2012/2013
  • 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £3.2m required (Show Summary)

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

strategy options
Strategy/Options
  • Still Much to be Determined
  • Manageable in 2012/2013 but cashflow of future reductions needs to be considered
  • No Apparent Incentive to Increase Council Tax for 2012/2013
  • “Acceptable” Level of Council Tax increase 2013/2014?
  • Plan for V3, Settle for V6

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

strategy options1
Strategy/Options
  • Compliance – Need to Do?
  • Cost Control
  • Rationalisation
  • General Savings and Efficiency Drives
  • Reserves and/or Council Tax

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

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