Democratisation and Consolidarion of democracies in the 20th & 21 Century Wolfgang Merkel

1. Democratisation and Consolidarion of democracies in the 20th & 21 CenturyWolfgang Merkel Bratislava 6/3/2008 EXU Excelentná Univerzita

2. 3 Waves of Democratisation in the 20 th Century • 1. Wave: 1828-1919 • Reverse Wave: 1922-1945 • 2. Wave: 1945- 960 • Reverse Wave: 1960-1973 • 3. Wave:1974 – 1995 • After the 3.rd wave: increase, stagnation, regression?

3. The change in the number of formal democracies (1800 – 2004) Source: Freedom House, 2003 (http://www.freedomhouse.org/reports/century.html), Diamond 1997, with modifications by AC. Formal democracies: the principle positions of political power are filled through regular, free, and fair elections between competing parties, and it is possible for an incumbent government to be turned out of office in those elections.

4. Formal and Liberal Democracies in the 3rd Wave Liberal democracies are political regimes that encompasses not only electoral competition for power (= formal democracy) but also basic civil liberties (freedom of belief, expression, organization, demonstration) rule of law, independent judiciary, pluralistic civil society, and civilian control over the military. Sources: Larry Diamond, Is the Third Wave Over (Vienna: IAS, 1997); Larry Diamond, A Report Card on Democracy (Hoover Digest, 2000, No. 3).

7. Social and economic requisities Civil society Stateness Civil rights Political liberties C B Electoral regime A D E Ho rizontal Effective power Civil Liberties accountab ility to rule Figure 2: The concept of embedded democracy

8. The Partial Regimes of the Embedded Democracy • The Electoral Regime • Political Rights • Civil Rights • Horizontal Accountability & Rule of Law • Effective Power to Govern

9. External Embeddedness • Socioeconomic Context • International Context • Civil Society

10. Formal and Liberal Democracies in the World: Geographical Distribution N = 120, Source: Diamond, A Report Card.

11. Economic Explanation N = 176 Low-income country: Real GDP per capita (PPP$) < $1,500, Medium-income country: Real GDP per capita (PPP$) > $1,500, <$6,000 High-income country: Real GDP per capita (PPP$) >$6,000, Source: Author’s calculations based on data from Freedom House 2003, http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2003/democracies.pdf<, Freedom House 2002, >http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2002/socialindicators.pdf<

12. Democracy in the World & Ethnic Heterogeneity N = 183, High degree of ethnic heterogeneity: Ethnic Fractionalization Index > 0.6199, Medium degree of ethnic heterogeneity: Ethnic Fractionalization Index < 0.6199, > 0.3099, Low degree of ethnic heterogeneity: Ethnic Fractionalization Index < 0.3099, Source: Author’s calculations based on data from Freedom House 2003, >http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2003/democracies.pdf<; Alberto Alesina et al., Fractionalization. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper (Cambridge, MA, 2002), >http://www.nber.org/papers/w9411<.

13. Religion and Democracy N = 188 Source: Author’s calculations based on data from Freedom House 2003 (http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2003/democracies.pdf); CIA World Factbook (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/fields/2122.html

14. Demokratie in der islamischen Welt

15. Demokratie in der nicht-islamischen Welt

16. Political Regimes in East-Central / Southeastern Europe and CIS (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova) Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung (2006) Notes: The classification is based on the index „Democracy“; „10“ is the best and „1“ the worst possible rating in this index.

17. Ranking and Rating of BTI 2008„Eastern Europe“ (1)

18. Democratic Consolidation (sub-regional)

20. Comparison: Eastern Europe and the „Rest“ (125 countries)

21. Freedom House Report 2008 http://www.freedomhouse.org http://www.Bertelsmann Transformation Index

22. General Trends: 2008 • Global negative trend • 20% of all states: lower scores (CR;P.R.) • 2nd subsequent year: negative trend • 38 countries: neg. trend; 10 countries: pos. trend • Deep Autoc. Regions (Maghreb, Middle East; Central Asia: no positive signs • Increased islam fundamentalism • Rent economies prevent democratization • Electoral Democracies: 121 (63% of all countries) • Many El.Dem.: high corruption, low effectiveness, ruleof law weakness>> Defective Democracies

23. Regional Development: 2008 • Asia: 6 states (25%) are free; 9 are unfree; rest partly free; Indian sub-continent: negative trend (Pak, Sri L., Banglad.,Afgh. • Russia: neg. trend; influence on the neighbours gets stronger • Middle East: pos. trend is over • Latin Am.:positive, but still unstable: corruption, criminality, inequality • Africa: neg. trend; i.a.: Nigeria, Kenya as imp. states

24. Trends 2008 • According to the survey’s findings, the year 2007 was marked by a notable setback for global freedom. • The decline was most pronounced in South Asia, but also reached significant levels in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. • It affected a substantial number of large and politically important countries—including Russia, Pakistan, Kenya, Egypt, Nigeria, and Venezuela—whose declines have wider regional and global implications. • Furthermore, results for 2007 marked the second consecutive year in which the survey registered a decline in freedom, representing the first two-year setback in the past 15 years.

25. Here World Map