Assessment of the impacts of climate change on physical infrastructure
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Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Physical Infrastructure. Thursday 12 March 2009. Presentations by Emeritus Professor Len Stevens AM FTSE And Mr Michael Nolan, Associate Director Sustainability & Climate Change, Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd.

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Assessment of the impacts of climate change on physical infrastructure

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Physical Infrastructure

Thursday 12 March 2009

Presentations by

Emeritus Professor Len Stevens AM FTSE

And

Mr Michael Nolan, Associate Director Sustainability & Climate Change, Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd


Assessment of impacts of climate change on australia s physical infrastructure

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Physical Infrastructure

Len Stevens is Emeritus Professor of Civil Engineering at the University of

Melbourne. He has wide experience in the theory and practice of Civil

Engineering with direct involvement with the design, construction and

rehabilitation of large infrastructure projects.

He has played a significant role in developing the suite of building

standards which are currently in use under the direction of the Building

Code of Australia and which will be key elements for the adaptation of

infrastructure to climate change impacts.

Em Professor Len Stevens AM FTSE, University of Melbourne


Assessment of the impacts of climate change on physical infrastructure

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s

Physical Infrastructure

Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering

3


Presentation outline

Presentation outline

Review of major climate change features

Identification of critical infrastructure sectors

Outline of risk assessment methodology

Conclusions and Recommendations

4


Global warming projections ipcc 2007

Global warming Projections – IPCC (2007)

Warming of 0.1 to 0.7°C is projected by 2020, rising to 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100

5


Temperature distribution data as a probability density function pdf

Temperature distribution data as a probability density function (pdf)

Likelihood of global warming in 2100

consistent with the climate sensitivity,

carbon cycle uncertainties and a range

of emissions scenarios summarised in

IPCC (2007). The diagram shows the likelihood of exceeding a given level of

change.

6


Some typical climate change events

Some typical climate change events

Note: Sea level rise

to 79 cm is projected

for 2100

7


Physical infrastructure elements considered in atse study

Physical infrastructure elements considered in ATSE study

Transport: road, rail, air, sea

Energy: gas, electricity, oil

Mining: production and distribution

Built Environment: domestic, commercial, essential services, agricultural, coastal

Water: storage, distribution, domestic, irrigation, industrial, waste, drainage

Communication: fixed line, wireless

8


Physical infrastructure demand and capacity

Physical infrastructure: demandandcapacity

Loading and strength of built environment

Electrical powerdemand and generating capacity

Rainfall and drainage capacity

Sea level rise and protection

Demand and supply of water

9


Recommended procedures developed by department of climate change

Recommended procedures developed by Department of Climate Change

Assessment methods based upon an internationally accepted probabilistic methodology - see AS/NZS 4360:2004 - by assessing:

Likelihood of a demand event, L,

Consequence of that event on infrastructure capacity, C,

Risk to physical and economic activity, R,

After which adaptation requirements, physical and economic, A, can be assessed.

10


Assessment of the impacts of climate change on physical infrastructure

ATSE Conclusions and Recommendations

Impacts on infrastructure

11


Assessment of the impacts of climate change on physical infrastructure

Most, but not all, sectors of Australia’s physical infrastructure are reasonably well placed to respond to possible climate change impacts via application of suitable adaptation strategies. Costs can be estimated for specified infrastructure.

Adaptation should, where possible, be integrated with normal maintenance and upgrade programs.

Most vulnerable sectors related to energy and water issues – often already at serious risk without climate change.

12


Assessment of the impacts of climate change on physical infrastructure

Major potential impacts on infrastructure often arise from combination of projected climatic events

  • For example:

  • Impacts of extreme rainfall, sea level rise, and storm surge on low lying coastal development

  • Impacts of drought, bush fires, and temperature extremes on electricity supply and distribution

13


Assessment of the impacts of climate change on physical infrastructure

In essential sectors, the implementation of effective adaptation strategies may require intervention by governments to ensure that planning is fully integrated.

Examples may include the generation and distribution of electrical energy, water storage and supply, or inundation of low lying coastal area developments.

14


Assessment of the impacts of climate change on physical infrastructure

The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) should have oversight responsibility for issues relating to the impact of climate change by establishing a national body, such as a “National Climate Change Adaptation Task Force (NCCAT)”

NCCAT would:

Produce Guidelines for national policy solutions for climate change adaptation

Identify and facilitate research needed to support the policy solutions

15


Assessment of the impacts of climate change on physical infrastructure

Under NCCAT guidance, relevant government authorities should:

Undertake comprehensive risk assessment for specific existing critical infrastructure facilities considered vulnerable to climate change

Implement comprehensive strategic planning controls for future specific installations potentially vulnerable to climate change

16


Mr michael nolan associate director sustainability climate change maunsell australia pty ltd

Mr Michael Nolan, Associate Director Sustainability & Climate Change, Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd

Michael is an environmental professional with fifteen years experience

managing sustainability and environmental change outcomes for business,

government and educational institutions. He has extensive experience in

sustainable infrastructure, energy, greenhouse and climate change

adaptation, water and behaviour change.

Michael led the climate change impacts to infrastructure in Australia for the

Garnaut Climate Change Review and project managed several climate

change impact, risk assessment and adaptation projects relating to water,

power, transport, buildings and communications infrastructure,

organisations and settlements.

Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change Impacts


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