Ecosystem Function and Health Program Problem Area:

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Ecosystem Function and Health Program Problem Area: Quantify and predict ecosystem responses to environmental stressors (e.g. climate change). Develop statistical models to help managers make informed and defensible predictions. Haiganoush K Preisler Statistical Scientist

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Ecosystem Function and Health Program

• Problem Area:
• Quantify and predict ecosystem responses to environmental stressors (e.g. climate change).
• Develop statistical models to help managers make informed and defensible predictions.

Haiganoush K Preisler

Statistical Scientist

PSW Research Station

Understanding the influence of climate on

• mountain pine beetle outbreaks in:
• Lodgepole pine forests
• Whitebark pine forests
• 2. wildland fire occurrence
• and size.

How does climate influence beetle outbreaks?

USFS

aerial detection surveys

Beetle pressure

Remaining live trees

Drought stress

Winter mortality

Outbreaks

Probability of an outbreak

Outbreak severity

A mechanistic statistical model

Y = 1 if Stress on tree > Tree tolerance

Y = 0 otherwise

Stress = number of attacking beetles

~ g1(birth rate) + g2(btp) + g3(live trees)

S= f1( temp, drought) + f2(btp) + f3(live trees)

T = f4(drought)

f ( ) ~ smooth functions to be estimated from data

Winter Mortality

Drought Stress

Study location

(LPP study)

Contribution of beetle pressure vs. weather

Washington

Oregon

beetle pressure most important

weather important during initiation, collapse

Climate Variable – Fire Weather Index (FWI)

Other Variables – Distance to road; Forest vs Ag land

Westerling et al 2011 Climatic Change

Westerling et al 2011 Climatic Change