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Bulk Statistics on Ensemble Model Forecasts for MDSS Demo 2003. Paul Schultz NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory June 17, 2003. 2. The MDSS ensemble modeling component. What is it? Several computer model forecasts to supplement the NWS model forecast services Why are we doing this?

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Bulk statistics on ensemble model forecasts for mdss demo 2003

Bulk Statistics on Ensemble Model Forecasts for MDSS Demo 2003

Paul Schultz

NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory

June 17, 2003


The mdss ensemble modeling component

2 2003

The MDSS ensemble modeling component

  • What is it?

    • Several computer model forecasts to supplement the NWS model forecast services

  • Why are we doing this?

    • Better forecasts. Just seeing if you’re paying attention.

  • How does it work?

    • By combining multiple (imperfect) forecasts of the (imperfectly observed) atmosphere, we can make a single ensemble forecast that is better than any of the forecasts that went into it.


Ensemble modeling

3 2003

Ensemble modeling

  • Did it work during the 2003 Demo?

    • Not as well as it can. It shows promise. It can be improved.


The ensemble for demo 2003

5 2003

The ensemble for Demo 2003

  • Three models, two LBC source models, total of six ensemble members

    • models: MM5, RAMS, WRF

    • LBC sources (from NCEP): AVN, Eta

    • 6-hour cycle

    • 27-hour forecasts

    • 12-km grid


Bulk statistics state variables 12 hr forecasts feb 1 apr 8 2003

6 2003

Bulk statisticsState variables, 12-hr forecastsFeb 1 – Apr 8, 2003


Precipitation verification

7 2003

Precipitation verification


A closer look
A closer look 2003

9 pm model runs, verifying only Iowa stations, entire expt


Improving the ensemble

8 2003

Improving the ensemble

  • Remove unhelpful members

    • If we can’t fix RAMS problems, it’s gone

    • Different LBC models don’t seem to help (?????)


Unhelpful members
Unhelpful members 2003

The LBC models don’t add enough diversity

MM5+Avn

MM5+Eta

WRF+Avn

WRF+Eta


Improving the ensemble1
Improving the ensemble 2003

  • Add good models

    • FSL/RUC a very good candidate for Demo 2004

  • Change model configurations

    • WRF cloud/precip physics

    • Model cycle frequency, lead times, etc.

      • Optimize use of available computing resources

      • Take advantage of what regional models do best

  • Improve post-processing

    • Better PoP (probability of precip) estimates -- FSL

    • Better tuning procedures -- NCAR

    • Hope for “better” weather during tuning period


Reliability
Reliability 2003

9

Planned power outage at FSL

NCEP data problems

Giant snowstorm in Boulder


Reliability1

10 2003

Reliability

  • MM5 shows good reliability

  • Others will improve with better scripting


Photos from mdss field trip
Photos from MDSS field trip 2003

Downward-pointed radiometer mounted on rear-view mirror of Jim Van Sickle’s truck

RWIS tower, I-35 south of Ames

Bob Stradley and Ron Simmons


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