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Economic Misery and Presidential Elections

Economic Misery and Presidential Elections. Texas council on Economic Education. 1801 Allen Parkway Houston, TX 77019 713.655.1650 www.economicstexas.org. How Do You Get These Materials? www.economicstexas.org.

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Economic Misery and Presidential Elections

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  1. Economic Misery and Presidential Elections

  2. Texas council on Economic Education • 1801 Allen Parkway • Houston, TX 77019 • 713.655.1650 • www.economicstexas.org

  3. How Do You Get These Materials? www.economicstexas.org

  4. CEE Conference: MiamiOctober 7-9, 2010Registration $300 at www.econonomicstexas.org

  5. TCEE Conferenceswww.econonomicstexas.org February 1, 2011 Elementary at Houston Children’s Museum February 2, 2011 Secondary at the Federal Reserve Bank June 2011 Dallas PFL and SMG June or August 2011 FTE: Economics and Environment San Antonio

  6. TEKS Government: 5d. Understand how government taxation and regulation can serve as restrictions to private enterprise. 6b. Understand the roles of the executive and legislative branches in setting international trade and fiscal policies. High School U.S. History 16A Identify the causes of the Great Depression, including the impact of tariffs on worldwide trade, stock market speculation, bank failures and monetary policy of the Free Enterprise System.

  7. Focus: If a presidential election were held tomorrow, what would be three issues of concern for you that would impact your vote? 1. 2. 3.

  8. Homework: Activity A 8. 1 Ask a person who is at least 18 years of age the following question: Please indicate the three issues that are most important to you as you decide who will get your vote in a U. S. presidential election. 1. 2. 3. Due Date; ________________________________________________

  9. Homework Due _______ What are the common answers? What do you think about the answers? How many are economic answers?

  10. Do you think the economy is in good shape today? What do the indicators indicate about the economy?

  11. Definitions Visual 8.1

  12. Indicators Unemployment rate: the percentage of people in the labor force who are unemployed. Inflation rate: The percentage increase in the overall price level. Real GDP: the value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a year, expressed in terms of constant dollars.

  13. Statistics Based on Indicators 1. Misery Index: The sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. 2. Real Per Capita GDP Growth Rate: The percentage change in real GDP per person

  14. Activity 8.2 Economic Indicators for Presidential Election Think, Pair, Share 1. What do you see on the chart? 2. What year since 1957 has the unemployment rate been the highest? 3. What year had the highest inflation rate? What year had the highest Misery Index?

  15. Who Won Presidential Elections? Did the incumbent win? Did the “in office” party win?

  16. Predictions Predict who you think will win based on the data on Activity 8.2. Write two or more rules that demonstrated how to apply the data Share your rules and evaluate them.

  17. The Economy and The President Review the “rules” on 8.2 and 8.3. Which of these rules serve as a strong predictor? Which ones do not?

  18. Which election was hardest to predict and why? Do economics play a role in presidential elections?

  19. Closure Do you believe the data we have studied shows that economic conditions impact presidential elections? Is it fair to blame or give credit to the incumbent ?

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