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Model Comparison: Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Models. P.R. Shukla. Energy Models. Top-Down. Bottom-Up. Equilibrium. Macro- Optimisation & Simulation . Technology Assessment. Single-Country. Multi-Region. Classification of Energy Sector Models. Technology. Resource. Secondary Energy.

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Model Comparison: Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Models

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Model comparison top down vs bottom up models l.jpg

Model Comparison: Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Models

P.R. Shukla


Classification of energy sector models l.jpg

Energy Models

Top-Down

Bottom-Up

Equilibrium

Macro- Optimisation

& Simulation

Technology Assessment

Single-Country

Multi-Region

Classification of Energy Sector Models


Slide3 l.jpg

Technology

Resource

Secondary Energy

End-Use

Lighting

Coal

Light Bulb

Cooking

Electricity Generation

Car

Gas

Transport

Heater

Heating

Crude Oil

Stove

Drive

Renewable

Oil

Refinery

Motor

Irrigation

Nuclear

Pump

Water Supply

Reference Energy System


Representative bottom up model flow chart markal l.jpg

Representative Bottom-up Model Flow Chart (MARKAL)


Representative top down model flow chart sgm 2000 l.jpg

Representative Top-down Model Flow Chart (SGM 2000)


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Comparative Dimensions


Model examples l.jpg

Model Examples


Relative strengths l.jpg

Relative Strengths


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Soft Linked Integrated Modeling Framework

TOP DOWN MODELS

Productivity

SGM

ERB Model

Global Energy Prices

GDP Prices

Energy Balance

BOTTOM-UP MODELS

Scenarios

MARKAL

Stochastic MARKAL

Technology Details

Power Sector LP Model

End-use

Demand

Technology Share

End-use Demand

Demand Projection

AIM/ENDUSE

Technology Specifications

Health Costs

OTHER MODELS

Inventory Estimation Model

Emissions

Health Impact

GIS based Energy &

Model

Emissions Model


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Model

Objective

Output

Policy Analysis

End-Use Demand Projection

Demand Projections consistent with macroeconomic scenario

End-use Sector Demand Trajectory

Sectoral investment, technology and infrastructure policies

AIM/ENDUSE

Minimize discounted sectoral cost

Sectoral energy, and technology mix, investments and emissions

Sectoral technology, energy, investment and emissions control policies

MARKAL

Minimize discounted Energy system cost

National energy and technology mix, energy system investments, and emissions

Energy sector policies like energy taxes and subsidies; energy efficiency; emissions taxes and targets

Stochastic-MARKAL

Minimize expected value of discounted system cost

Energy and technology mix under uncertain future, Value of information

Hedging strategies for energy system investments; identify information needs

Model Characteristics: Bottom-Up Models


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Model

Objective

Output

Policy Analysis

SGM

Determine market clearing prices for economic sector outputs

GDP and consumption trajectories;, prices of sectoral outputs and energy; sectoral investment patterns

Macro-economic impacts of policy interventions such as energy tax / subsidies; emissions limitations

ERB

Determine Global / Regional Energy Prices and Energy Use

Long-term global and regional energy prices, energy mix and emissions

Implications of very long-term global energy resource, tech. expectations

Model Characteristics: Top-Down Models


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Model

Objective

Output

Policy Analysis

Model Characteristics: Other Models

Inventory Estimation Model

Estimate national emission inventory for various gases

National emission inventory

Regional and sectoral emission variability, bench-marking, emission hot-spot assessment

GIS Based Energy and Emission Model

Determine regional spread of energy and emissions

Regional maps

Linking energy and environment policies across time and space

Power Sector LP Model

Minimize discounted Power sector cost

Power plant capacity and generation mix, emissions profile, total costs

Power sector technology, energy, investment, emissions control policies

Health Impact Model

Estimate local pollutant emission impacts on human health

Impact of individual plants, per capita and total national human health impacts, sensitivity analysis

Plant location and stack height policies, emission norm analysis, enforcement policy assessment


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Some Top-down Model Results


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GDP loss over base case: Carbon Tax scenarios

Tax Scenarios

25/ tC

50/ tC

$100/ tC


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Energy Consumption: Carbon Tax cases

Tax Scenarios


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Some Bottom-Up Model Results


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Technology Mix in Brick Production

140

High Draught

VSBK

120

Clamps (Biomass)

100

Bull trend Kiln 2

Bull trend Kiln 1

80

Billion Nos.

60

40

20

0

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Year


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Sectoral Energy consumption (EJ)

From 1995-2035

Industry & Residential Grow 3.5 times

Commercial Grows 9 times

Agriculture Stagnates

Transport Grows 5 times


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