Michael H. Glantz University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado ccb-boulder December 8, 2012

1. “1 decade down. 9 decades to go”: Coping with climate, water and weather-related hazards and disasters in the 21st century Michael H. Glantz University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado www.ccb-boulder.org December 8, 2012 Natural disaster word collage Source: JimKimmartin.com Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University APU) Beppu City, Oita, Japan

2. But first … Some facts

3. SCEP 1970 • Focused on global atmospheric problems • Global problems do not necessarily need global solutions • “In the foreseeable future advanced industrial societies will probably have to carry the major burden of remedial action” Man’s Impact on the Environment Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP) M.I.T. Press

4. Humans and the Climate System Society is a part of the climate system and not separate from it. Climate Change Impacts on the United States, USGCRP, 2000

5. Physical changes are to be expected More Extremes are Expected: but where? 2012 Report The climate is always changing

6. 2004 Societal changes are also to be expected Shanghai Harbor 1988

7. “4 Laws of Ecology” • Everything is connected to everything else. • Everything has to go somewhere or there is no such place as away. • Everything is always changing. • There is no such thing as a free lunch. Citarum River, Indonesia rekkerd.org/img/random/ citarum_pollution.jpg Could these also be the “4 Laws of Natural Disaster” in the 21st Century?

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9. A ‘weighty’ analogy:something to keep in mind You can’t go home again: • “You can’t recover the past” • Return to an earlier CO2 level will not necessarily return to the climate once witnessed at that level. • The amount of CO2 already in the SUBJECTS US to global warming for the rest of the 21ST century. A “loss of weight” analogy

10. The future is arriving earlier than expected • 2020 is the new 2050 • Disappearing Arctic sea ice • Melting Glaciers worldwide • Warming global temperature • Ecosystems moving upslope • Rising sea level

11. The 21st century’s first decade: Some attention-grabbing disasters • 2000 Mozambican floods • 2003 European heat wave • 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami • 2005 Hurricane Katrina • 2005 Mumbai Floods • 2008 Myanmar Cyclone Nargis • 2008 China’s winter storms • 2009 Australia’s Black Sunday bushfires • 2010 Russian heat wave • 2010 Pakistan’s Mega Floods European Heat Wave, 2003

12. The second decade (so far):Some climate, water and weather-related disasters • 2011 East Japan Great Tsunami • 2011 Thailand floods • 2012 Super Hurricane Sandy 2012 Afghanistan avalanches • 2012 US devastating drought • ** 2012 Super Typhoo Bopha • 2011/12 Rapid melting of Arctic sea ice • “Will 2012 top 2011 for record weather disasters?” ** December 3, 2012 Historic 'Super Typhoon' Bopha Smashes Into Philippines: 'Most southerly typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific' expected to bring 'life-threatening impacts'

13. Disaster-related News Headlines Thailand flood reaches Bangkok Thousands flee as typhoon blows into Philippines Will 2012 top 2011 for record weather disasters? (Reuters) “2011 Worst Year for Disasters in History...2012 Will be Worse! Are You Ready?” ‬ Megastorms Could Drown Massive Portions of California The Tornadoes Of 2011: The Worst Natural Disaster In The United States Since Hurricane Katrina 2011, The Disaster Year for Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Other Natural Disasters Under the Weather: The disasters just keep piling up A [USA] year for the record books: 2011 (NOAA) US coastal cities in danger as sea levels rise faster than expected, study warns Under the Weather: The disasters just keep piling up

14. A “Teachable Moment”: Super Hurricane Sandy, October 2012 Step-like change in the US in views about climate change and the need to take action on adaptation A reaffirmation that all coastal cities are vulnerable, rich and poor cities alike Climate change and urbanization rates and enhancing the risk to extremes Highlighted the value of ‘soft’ measures for coping with a changing climate: effective institutional coordination, rapid and accurate information and timely decision-making, front-end coordination, preparedness measures, cooperation of government agencies, effective monitoring and early warning. Media attention focused on Sandy’s impacts on the USA and not on the impacts in the Caribbean (Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, the Bahamas). WHY? A local storm can have global implications (NYC is a global financial center) Every disastrous extreme event is a “teachable moment” identifies lessons for future consideration.

15. Governments are not ready for consequences of global warming • Response to Hurricane Sandy in 2012 is a major success, when compared to responses in 2005 to Hurricane Katrina (America’s costliest natural disaster) • Government responses for Sandy were … • faster, more efficient, more effective, better executed (so far), more equitable, more caring of victims’ needs, top-down and bottom up approaches were taken, etc. What a difference a lesson and leadership make!

16. Learning by Analogy:East Japan’s Great Tsunami provides lessons for coping with climate change • Quick recovery is sometimes impossible. Be prepared for it. • Bad situations can continue for a long time. • Prepare many people to cope with disasters because victims are the real first responders. • Uncertainty–based risk management is necessary. • We cannot predict exactly when, where and how a disaster will occur, but can prepare for uncertainties. • Preparation of many risk scenarios may be useless. • Too many risk response manuals act as ‘societal tranquilizers’ • Keep records in more than one locality (e.g., medical information).

17. Super Hurricane Sandy Response: was it as good as it gets? • Pre-election government response guaranteed the best possible response • Reliable forecast of the hurricane • Credible warning a few days in advance • Responses to Sandy show resilience of infrastructure, of government, of people, of neighborhoods • Attentive political leaders at all levels • Opposing political ideologies were put aside • Response was not perfect but perhaps as good as it could be

18. An example of foreseeability: An increase in Superstorms

19. The focus today is on adaptation But, should it be?

20. Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: Linking or Sinking • Each has its own bureaucracy • Each has its own time dimension • Each has its own own vocabulary • Each has its own concepts • BUT, both worry about DISASTERS DRR CCA

21. Definitions of Resilience:3 variations of a concept • The abilityof the community to withstand the consequences of an incident.
 • The power of recovery to original shape and size after removal of the strain which caused the deformation. • The capacity to adapt without harm.

22. We can disagree on what resilience is, But we know what it isn’t ! Dynamite fishing in the Philippines

23. Introducing Resilient Adaptation(Luthar, 2003, CUP) • A process that is a flexible, incremental approach • to adjusting to foreseeable adverse impacts • of an uncertain changing climate in the future.

24. What’s needed for effective resilient adaptation • Early Warning systems • Foreseeability • Expect surprises • Improvization • Precautionary Principle • A focus on “Plan A”

25. Heightened value of early warning systems

26. Foreseeability:One form of warning • Scientists rely on probabilities • For a hazard’s occurrence • For its potential impacts • Use foreseeability • A qualitative version of probability

27. Foster creative responses:improvization and innovation • Improvization • To invent, compose, or perform with little or no preparation • Is is an intuitive “process of structuring the unknown” • To perceive, understand and make sense of what is experienced Victims are the true “first responders” (ZORs: ZERO ORDER RESPONDERS)

28. Expect climate, water and weather surprises • Not all ‘surprises’ are ‘unexpectable.’ • I was “semi-surprised” • “almost surprised” • “hardly surprised” • “a little surprised” • “sort of surprised” • “somewhat surprised” There are “foreseeable surprises” Hurricane Katrina 2005, USA

29. Plan A:“Precautionary Principle” • “Governments should not use the lack of full scientific information as a reason to postpone action to prevent serious irreversible environmental damage” • World Lake Vision Committee FOCUS ON MITIGATION, REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS AND ROLL BACK CO2 LEVELS

30. (b) Planet Earth is now Global Warming’s “Ground zero” (c) (a) Seems people have chosen (a)

31. There are many …“Plans B”Geo-engineering ideas to stop Global Warming • Mirrors in space • Mimic volcanoes • Brighten clouds • Carbon sequestration • Iron particles in ocean • Global tree planting • Go nuclear • Go renewable energy www.lightwatcher.com/ chemtrails/smoking_gun.html

32. While there are many “Plans B”…

33. SMIC 1971 “We recognize a real problem: global temperature increase produced by man’s injection of heat and CO2 … may lead to dramatic reduction even elimination of Arctic sea ice.” “This exercise would be fruitless if we did not believe that society would be rational when faced with a set of decisions that could govern the future habitability of our planet.” Inadvertent Climate Modification Report of the Study of Man’s Impact on Climate (SMIC) Edited by SMIC M.I.T. Press