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Development of the energy potential of the forestry sector and wood energy in a sustainable way. UNECE/FAO Policy Forum: The Forest Sector in the Green Economy, Geneva – Switzerland, October 15 th , 2009. André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40.

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André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40

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Development of the energy potential of the forestry sector and wood energy in a sustainable way.UNECE/FAO Policy Forum: The Forest Sector in the Green Economy, Geneva – Switzerland, October 15th, 2009.

André Faaij

Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University

Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40


Developed perceptions…

  • GHG balances not OK

  • Endless subsidies needed.

  • Land and water constrain bioenergy to marginal levels.

  • Increases food prices and not good for farmers.

  • Other alternatives (solar, efficiency, hydrogen) are better and really sustainable.


After the burst of the bubble in 2008…

  • Strong policy action:

    • Push for sustainability frameworks

    • Push for 2nd generation biofuels and other advanced options

    • Targeting lignocellulosic resources (residues from agriculture, forestry, marginal/degraded lands)

    • Market players follow this development


Bioenergy today

  • 45 EJ + 10 EJ total use (global about 480 EJ)

  • 9 EJ + 6 EJ commercial; non-modern

  • ~ 8 EJ Modern; commercial:

    • < 1 EJ electricity

    • ~ 2.5 EJ heat

    • ~ 1.5 EJ biofuels (bulk = ethanol; half of that ethanol sugar cane based)

  • Main controversy on biofuels from annual crops and palm oil.

  • Currently some 25 Mha in use for biofuels worldwide (compared to 5,000 Mha for food)


Certification bioenergy: ongoing initiatives

  • Governments: UK, NL, D, B, and more EU nations…; EC, US, DC’s…

  • NGO’s & International bodies.

  • Market initiatives/multistakeholder: roundtables on palm, soy, sugar and biofuels, utilities,…

IEA Task 40:Van Dam et al., 2008;

Biomass & Bioenergy.

www.bioenergytrade.org


Energy & climate crisis can only be tackled by a portfolio of all options we have available.

[IIASA]

GHG mitigation

Potentials

[IPCC AR4, 2007]


Limitations in degraded land, protected areas and water


OverallPicture

Yes, biomass can play a significant role in future energy supply

Dornburg et al., 2008


Perennial crops (vs. annual crops)

  • Lower costs (< 2 €/GJ)

  • Planted for 15-25 years

  • Low(er) intensity

    • Can restore soil carbon and structure

    • Suited for marginal/degraded lands

    • Requires less inputs (well below key threshold values)

  • Wide portfolio of species & production systems

    • Possibilities for enhancing (bio-) diversity

    • Adaptable to local circumstances (water, indigenous species)

  • Earlier development stage

    • Large scale and diverse experience needed

    • Learning curve to be exploited

    • Improvement potential

Miscanthus x giganteus


Yields: perennials ~3x annual


Experience curve for primary forest fuels in Sweden and Finland (1975 and 2003).

Source: Junginger Faaij et al., 2005


Experience curve for the average and marginal production cost of electricity from Swedish biofuelled CHP plants from 1990-2002

Source: Junginger, Faaij et al., 2005


Developing international bioenergy markets

Canada

E. Europe

& CIS

W. Europe

USA

Japan

Japan

South East

Asia

Ethanol

ethanol

Brazil

Pellets

pellets

palm

oil

&

Palm oil & agricultural residues

agricultural

residues

Wood Pellets

Ethanol

Palm Oil & Ag Residues

[IEA Task 40; www.bioenergytrade.org]


A future vision on global bioenergy…(2040?)

250 Mha = 100 EJ

= 5% ag land + pasture

= 1/3 Brazilie

[GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008]


Pre-treatment:

- grinding

- drying

feedstock is poplar wood

Gasification:

- air or oxygen

- pressurised or

atmospheric

- direct/indirect

Gas cleaning:

- ‘wet’ cold or

‘dry’ hot

FT liquids

Offgas

Recycle loop

FT synthesis:

- slurry reactor

or fixed bed

Gas turbine

Gas processing:

- reforming

- shift

- CO2 removal

Power

Synthetic fuels from biomassBiomass & coal gasification to FT liquids - with gas turbine

Major investments in IG-FT capacity

ongoing in China right now:

- Reducing dependency on oil imports!

- Without capture strong increase in CO2 emissions…

About 50%

of carbon!


Economic performance 2nd generation biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3 Euro/GJ feedstock

[Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006]


The IEA on biofuels…

IEA-ETP, 2008


Final Remarks

  • We cannot miss out on the biobased economy for fundamental and interlinked reasons (energy, climate, soil & carbon management, rural development).

  • Lignocellulosic biomass (perennials, residues) offer the excellent perspectives.

  • Forest sector and (international) pellet markets offers an essential opportunity on shorter term + the market experience to build on for longer term.

  • Follow the learning curve, develop (sustainable) markets and stimulate investment.

  • Breakthrough of 2nd gen biofuels may take affect on the forestry sector sooner than we think and will not be driven by policy but by economics


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