Climate Change Science and Policy

1. Climate Change Science and Policy Recent News and Trends

2. Topics for Today A primer on the science and recent data (NASA) The Clean Power Plan (USEPA, Congress, and the Office of the President)…and a few other EPA updates of note COP 21 Closer to Home: the Renewable Energy Credits Market in IL Closer to Rome: the Pope’s Encyclical Climate Change Denial – the Age of Unreason(ableness)

4. National Geographic Society / NY Times Classroom Resources on Climate Change and Sea Level Rise http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/101-videos/global-warming-101 http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/if-ice-melted-map http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/24/opinion/sunday/what-could-disappear.html

5. Climate Models 1 Box models 2 Zero-dimensional models 3 Radiative-convective models 4 Higher-dimension models 5 EMICs (Earth-system models of intermediate complexity) 6 GCMs (global climate models or general circulation models) The IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) base their predictions and recommendations on the results of 73 different models in these 6 categories. All 73 indicate anthropogenic impacts resulting in climate change effects.

6. NASA Collected Data and Graphics http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/ http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/ http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/ http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ CO2 levels in the atmosphere now above 400 ppm

7. POLICY ISSUES Clean Power Plan – Rule Summary On August 3, 2015, President Obama and EPA announced the Clean Power Plan – a historic and important step in reducing carbon pollution from power plants that takes real action on climate change. Shaped by years of unprecedented outreach and public engagement, the final Clean Power Plan is fair, flexible and designed to strengthen the fast-growing trend toward cleaner and lower-polluting American energy. With strong but achievable standards for power plants, and customized goals for states to cut the carbon pollution that is driving climate change, the Clean Power Plan provides national consistency, accountability and a level playing field while reflecting each state’s energy mix. It also shows the world that the United States is committed to leading global efforts to address climate change.

8. Clean Power Plan (cont.) In the final Clean Power Plan (CPP), EPA is establishing interim and final carbon dioxide emission performance rates for the two types of electric generating units - steam electric and natural gas fired power plants - under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. The CPP also establishes state-specific interim and final goals for each state, based on these limits and each state’s mix of power plants. The goals are expressed in two ways—rate-based and mass-based— either of which can be used by the state in its plan.

9. Section 111 (d) of the Clean Air Act Section 111, 42 U.S.C. §7411, of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to develop regulations for categories of sources which cause or significantly contribute to air pollution which may endanger public health or welfare. Potential litigation areas: • Averaging • Flexibility • Trading

10. From the Illinois Plan Pathway to 2030: Illinois and its power plants goal are reasonable and achievable because no plant and no state has to meet them alone or all at once... In fact, Illinois' goal reflects the inherent flexibility in the way the power system operates and the variety of ways in which the electricity system can deliver a broad range of opportunities for compliance for power plants and states.States can use EPA’s model trading rules or write their own plan that includes trading with other “trading-ready” states. Clean Energy Incentive Program available for early investments. This program supports renewable energy projects – and energy efficiency in low-income communities.

11. From the Illinois Plan (cont.) Energy efficiency available for compliance. Demand-side EE is an important, proven strategy that states and utilities are already widely using, and that can substantially and cost-effectively lower CO2 emissions from the power sector. EPA anticipates that demand-side EE programs will be a significant component of state compliance plans under the Clean Power Plan The period for mandatory reductions begins in 2022, and there is a smoother glide path to 2030. The glide path gradually “steps” down the amount of carbon pollution. Note that states may elect to set their own milestones for interim step periods 1, 2 and 3 as long as they meet the interim goal overall or “on average” over the course of the interim period, and meet the final goals, established in the emission guidelines.

12. Other USEPA (not Climate Change) The Obama administration on Oct. 1 unveiled a major new regulation on smog-causing emissions, significantly tightening the current Bush-era standards but falling short of more stringent regulations that public health advocates and environmentalists had urged. The EPA set the new national standard for ozone, a smog-causing gas that often forms on hot, sunny days when chemical emissions from power plants, factories and vehicles mix in the air, at 70 ppb, tightening the standard of 75 ppb set in 2008. U.S. oil refineries will face tighter standards on air emissions that cause lung problems and increase cancer risks. Last week, EPA finalized a rule, to be fully implemented in 2018, that aims to reduce emissions of benzene and other toxic emissions. TSCA Reauthorization coming up in Congress soon. Clean Water Rule, which creates a new, extraordinarily expansive definition of “Waters of the United States (WOTUS).” The new rules are vast and complex, and affect almost 2 million miles of streams and more than 19 million acres of wetlands. This morning’s announcement of methane reductions from oil and gas mining…

13. IL Renewable Energy Credit Market On June 28, 2014, Illinois Governor Pat Quinn signed Illinois House Bill 2427 into law as Public Act 98-0672, creating the new Section 1-56(i) of the Illinois Power Agency Act (“IPA Act”). This Section called upon the Illinois Power Agency (“IPA”) to “develop a one-time supplemental procurement plan limited to the procurement of Renewable Energy Credits, if available, from new or existing photovoltaics, including, but not limited to, distributed photovoltaic generation” using up to $30 million from the Renewable Energy Resources Fund (“RERF”). (20 ILCS 3855/1-56(i)(1)). What is a REC? A Renewable Energy Certificate (“REC”) is a tradable, environmental asset that represents the environmental attributes of one Megawatt hour (1,000 kWh) of solar electricity. This opportunity is different than a net metering agreement with the utility. It is based on the total energy production of the renewable system in quarterly increments. Renewable energy system owners produce clean electrons and avoid dirty electrons from entering the electric grid. RECs are a way to track and monetize the environmental benefits of the clean energy being generated.

14. Internationally: COP 21 What is COP 21? The 21st climate conference session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change. It will be held in Paris from Nov. 30 – Dec. 11, 2015. The Goal: Achieve a new, legally binding, international agreement on climate, applicable to all countries, and starting in 2020, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2o C. It includes a transfer of $100 billion from developed nations (also beginning in 2020) to act as an incentive to implement sustainable technologies in accordance with that goal.

16. Some critical paragraphs… THE THEOLOGY 67. We are not God. The earth was here before us and it has been given to us. This allows us to respond to the charge that Judeo-Christian thinking, on the basis of the Genesis account which grants man “dominion over the earth” [Gen 1:28], has encouraged the unbridled exploitation of nature by painting him as domineering and destructive by nature. This is not a correct interpretation of the Bible as understood by the Church…we must forcefully reject the notion that our being created in God’s image and given dominion over the earth justifies absolute domination…Each community can take from the bounty of the earth whatever it needs for subsistence, but it also has the duty to protect the earth and to ensure its fruitfulness for coming generations.

17. THE ECONOMICS 195. The principle of the maximization of profits, frequently isolated from other considerations, reflects a misunderstanding of the very concept of the economy. As long as production is increased, little concern is given to whether it is at the cost of future resources or the health of the environment; as long as the clearing of a forest increases production, no one calculates the losses entailed in the desertification of the land, the harm done to bio-diversity or the increased pollution. In a word, businesses profit by calculating and paying only a fraction of the costs involved. Yet only when the economic and social costs of using up shared environmental resources are recognized with transparency and fully borne by those who incur them, not by other peoples or future generations can those actions be considered ethical.

18. POLITICS, BOTH LOCAL… 129. In order to continue providing employment, it is imperative to promote an economy which favours productive diversity and business creativity. For example, there is a great variety of small-scale food production systems which feed the greater part of the world’s peoples, using a modest amount of land and producing less waste, be it in small agricultural parcels, in orchards and gardens, hunting and wild harvesting or local fishing. Economies of scale, especially in the agricultural sector, end up forcing smallholders to sell their land or to abandon their traditional crops….Civil authorities have the right and duty to adopt clear and firm measures in support of small producers and differentiated production. To ensure economic freedom from which all can effectively benefit, restraints occasionally have to be imposed on those possessing greater resources and financial power.

19. …AND INTERNATIONAL 51. Inequity affects not only individuals but entire countries; it compels us to consider an ethics of international relations. A true ecological debt exists, particularly between the global north and south, connected to commercial imbalances with effects on the environment, and the disproportionate use of natural resources by certain countries over long periods of time…warming caused by huge consumption on the part of some rich countries has repercussions on the poorest areas of the world…pollution produced by companies which operate in less developed countries in ways they could never do at home…We note that often the businesses which operate this way are multinationals.

20. …and finally, speaking of religion… An exasperated Pat Robertson challenged President Obama and over 97 percent of climate scientists over their belief in climate change today since, after all, the televangelist explained, it is snowing in Boston. Robertson claimed that the Boston snowstorm helps prove that climate change is a myth created by scientists who have been manipulating data, even though climate change has actually been linked to growing storm intensity… The American Family Association is pointing to the tornado that hit the AFA’s home of Tupelo, Mississippi, as evidence that humans shouldn’t try to combat climate change: “Tornadoes reflect the power of God, and therefore there is no point in trying to combat climate change because we are mere mortals. So then for us to talk about controlling the weather and global — somehow if we drive different SUVs — somehow we can stop these phenomena that are so beyond our comprehension and ability we can’t do anything except film them.” http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4539391/science-denial-discussion-intro

21. Climate Change deniers (denialists?) generally fall into two categories: 1. Those with an economic incentive; and 2. Those who have faith-based objection to climate change. - a tradition of anti-science bias that goes back to the late 19th century (Darwin) that carries on to the present day. Manifests itself in denial of evolution, belief in faith-healing over medicine, the existence of both benign and malevolent spirits interceding in our affairs, other behavior. Climate Change, and our role in the causation, is anti-biblical, and scientists lie because they have a vested interest in spreading mistruths (see 1. above). - more insidious, is that if it is occurring, than maybe this is part of the apocalyptic prophecy (“end times”) and we have no right to halt it or slow it down.