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Housing Market Dynamics in the Tyne and Wear City Region: Potential Policy Issues and Responses

Housing Market Dynamics in the Tyne and Wear City Region: Potential Policy Issues and Responses. Tuesday 6 July 2010 Brendan Nevin. NLA Nevin Leather Associates Ltd. Economic and Housing Market Drivers. 2008 – 2014 Financial meltdown Loss of liquidity Economic recession

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Housing Market Dynamics in the Tyne and Wear City Region: Potential Policy Issues and Responses

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  1. Housing Market Dynamics in the Tyne and Wear City Region: Potential Policy Issues and Responses Tuesday 6 July 2010 Brendan Nevin NLA Nevin Leather Associates Ltd

  2. Economic and Housing Market Drivers • 2008 – 2014 • Financial meltdown • Loss of liquidity • Economic recession • Growth in unemployment • Depressed consumer expenditure • Risk aversion by banks / developers • Reduced public subsidy • Welfare reform

  3. Economic and Housing Market Drivers • Outcomes • Collapse in new build • Collapse in overall sales • Urban/rural differentiation • Link between worklessness and access to housing

  4. Current Market Performance and Future • Short term: • Dire! • The suburban / rural areas will recover first • Pent up demand will mean that when: • Liquidity improves; and • Employment stabilises A rapid increase in activity will ensue

  5. Current Market Performance and Future • Hard to see how the “bounce” will occur before 2015/16 when expenditure reductions are programmed to cease • No evidence that the private sector will resume inner city building without subsidy / risk sharing

  6. Current Market Performance and Future • Need and market opportunity: • North city region will remain more dynamic with more market opportunity • Need will become more acute across the entire area • The PRS needs to grow • Increase in shared housing

  7. Synthesis • Market Failure • Housing supply – south of the Tyne • Inner city supply • Labour market failure and housing need • Some evidence of dysfunction in quality supply • £1,000 or more per week: North East 15%, Yorkshire and Humberside 15%, North West 14%

  8. Synthesis • Neighbourhood Issues • Urban “Prime” • No brownfield • Parks • Linear shopping areas • Diversity of Victorian / Edwardian provision • No social renting • Access to CBD / Universities / Hospitals Or

  9. Synthesis • Or • 1930s / 1950s urban extensions • Low density development • Access to countryside • Detached and semi detached • Frequently niche shopping centres

  10. Policy Issues and Options • Population and household decentralisation likely to increase • Planning policy post 2010 – cooperation or competition? • HCA / new long term inner city development vehicles • Renewal v supply

  11. Policy Issues and Options • The market will not deliver affordable housing – new community based vehicles (Community Land Trusts) • Welfare reform worklessness and housing

  12. Policy Issues and Options • Housing correction and economic wellbeing: • Direct employment • Impact on consumer expenditure and financial services • Growth of the PRS, impact on wealth, education and use of stock • Increasing segregation between owner occupied and rented markets • Suburban building

  13. Policy Issues and Options • City Region Responses • Housing supply / regeneration / planning / the urban rural interface • Housing monitoring – supply and demand – demographic change etc • Forward planning, economic change and housing, infrastructure, land and market / affordable provision

  14. Policy Issues and Options • City Region Responses • Developing new housing vehicles – shared services / knowledge transfer • Development of housing and worklessness programmes using sub regional infrastructure – colleges, universities, training agencies, RSLs etc • European programmes?

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