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Mapping The Market Thought of Guar complex by Nagaraj Meda Managing Director TransGraph Consulting Pvt.Ltd. Guar Scenario. 24 th Nov, 2013. 11 th Oct’2014. Market Risk Management Solutions. “what to do” + “what not to do”. Client. Positions. Database.

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Guar scenario

Mapping The Market Thought

of

Guar complex

by

Nagaraj Meda

Managing Director

TransGraphConsulting Pvt.Ltd

Guar Scenario

24thNov, 2013

11th Oct’2014


Market Risk Management Solutions

“what to do” + “what not to do”

Client

Positions

Database

Risk Management Software

Exposure + P&L + Risk

Engagement

Manager

Pricing & Hedging Guidelines

Customized Strategies

Pricing + Hedging

Risk Reporting

Price Outlook Services

Commodity + Currency + Economy

Risk Management Policy

Hedge Model + SOPs + MIS

Profitability & Risk Management




Guar yearly average prices
Guar yearly average prices

Source:TG

Crop year: Oct to Sep


Competitive crop scenario
Competitive Crop Scenario

Source:TG & CACP

Last two years in western Rajasthan there has been increase in soybean and Maize cultivation also along with Guar.


Rainfall in gaur region during the guar sowing
Rainfall in Gaur region during the guar sowing

Source: IMD

In Rajasthan sowing period 72% of rainfall deficit have seen, which have kept lower sown guar sown area this year. Meanwhile in Gujarat 27% deficit was observed and Haryana near 54% deficit rainfall observed.


Guar sown acreage in guar region
Guar sown acreage in guar region

Source:TG & agri departments

Guar sown acreage declined significantly across guar region due to scanty rainfall during the sowing period. In Rajasthan acreage declined near 14%, whereas, in Gujarat and Haryana declined above 35% acreage from last year sown area.


India guar sown area
India Guar sown area

Source:TG & Rajasthan agri department


Indian guar production
Indian Guar production

Source:TG

year: Oct to Sep


D omestic guar gum demand
Domestic Guar gum demand

Source:TG

Year: Oct to Sep

Indian guar gum consumption may decline by 13% for 2014-15 year due to anticipation of rise in guar gum prices by lower production, so Textile and Paper & Paper board industry may turn to other substitute products.


Guar gum exports sector wise
Guar gum exports sector wise

Source:TG

Year: Oct to Sep

Anticipation of rise in guar prices may impact guar gum consumption in Food, Textile and other industries due to they have alternative (substitute) source at cheaper prices.


Expected guar gum consumption sector wise in 2014 15
Expected Guar gum consumption sector wise in 2014-15

Source:TG

  • In total Indian guar gum exports 62% of gum is consumed by US shale industry, remaining is food , paper and textile industry.

  • In domestic markets major players are Food, Paper and Textile industries.


Indian guar gum exports
Indian Guar gum exports

Source:TG & DGFT

Year : Oct to Sep


Indian guar balance sheet
Indian Guar Balance sheet

Source :TG

Crop year: Oct to Sep



Guar seed jodhpur spot market inr qtl preferred long term
Guar Seed Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Preferred-Long Term

Guar Seed prices, after completion of Cycle wave 2 at INR4080 initiated Primary wave 1 in Cycle wave 3. With in the same, Intermediate wave-1 is completed at INR 6266 and initiated downside correction as intermediate Wave 2 which may culminate near INR 4900 ahead of turning higher towards INR 8500 as Intermediate wave 3 in the next 7-9 months .


Guar gum jodhpur spot market inr qtl elliot wave count preferred long term
Guar Gum Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Elliot Wave count-Preferred-Long Term

Guar Gum prices, after completion of Cycle wave 2 at INR 10900 initiated Primary wave 1 in Cycle wave 3. With in the same, Intermediate wave-1 is completed at INR 17440 and initiated downside correction as intermediate Wave 2 which may culminate near INR 13500-13000 ahead of turning higher towards INR 28000 as Intermediate wave 3 in the next 7-9 months .


Guar seed and guar gum spot market price outlook
Guar Seed and Guar Gum Spot Market Price Outlook

Price Outlook Summery:

1)Guar Seed Prices are likely to remain sideways to slightly negative to post a low around INR 4900 initially to set stage for a medium term recovery towards INR 8500-8800 in the coming 6-7 months.

2)Guar Gum Prices are likely to remain sideways to negative to post a low around INR 13000 initially to set stage for a medium term recovery towards INR 27500-28000 in the coming 6-7 months.

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