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Sea Level & Ice Sheets Concern about the Future of Inhabited Coastlines. Presented by Beth Caissie. (thanks to Ken Miller, Rutgers, for many of his slides). Sources: Petit et al. (1999) Nature 399, 429-436 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA.

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Sea Level & Ice Sheets

Concern about the Future of Inhabited Coastlines

Presented by

Beth Caissie

(thanks to Ken Miller, Rutgers, for many of his slides)


Sources: Petit et al. (1999) Nature 399, 429-436 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA


Sea level history over the past 450,000 years National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

Source: Labeyrie et al (2003) In: Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future, Springer.


Last interglacial National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

Global Sea Level

TODAY

Full Glacial

Lambeck et al., 2002, based on tropical & subtropical records



Antarctica National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

West

East


Why Is Global Sea Level Rising Today? National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

  • Melting Ice Caps and Glaciers:

  • Melting land ice adds to ocean volume (sea ice does not)

  • Greenland is thinning today, but didn’t disappear during the Last Interglacial

.

  • IPCC2001: near 0

  • Cazenave & Nerem (2004): >0.15 mm/yr

  • Sterns & Hamilton (2007): 0.57 mm/y


Muir glacier

Why Is Global Sea Level Rising Today? National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

Muir Glacier

  • Glacial Retreat

  • Most glaciers world-wide are in retreat

  • Alpine glaciers contribute 0.6 mm/yr to sea level rise

  • Why are some advancing?

    • Increased snow

1941, William Field

2004, Bruce Molnia

From the Glacier photograph collection. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology.

http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/repeat_photography.html


Why Is Global Sea Level Rising Today? National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

  • Thermal Expansion:

  • ocean has gained heat

  • Warmer water less dense global 20th century warming ~0.6°C

  • 1.6 mm/yr sea-level rise


Should I Sell My Shore House? National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

Brazil

Atlantic City NJ


Observations tide gauge and satellite altimetry data
Observations National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA(Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry Data)

  • Overall 10-20cm rise in 20th century

  • 20th century average rate of sea level rise: 1.7±0.3mm/yr

  • 1950-2000 1.8±0.3mm/yr

  • 1993-2003 accelerated to 3.1±0.7 mm/yr


Sea level forecast ipcc 2007
Sea-Level Forecast: IPCC 2007 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

40 cm (1.25 ft) rise by 2100

1 m (3.3 ft) by 2200 IPCC 2007 error: 20-60 cm (does not include ice sheet melting)

2007

http://www.realclimate.org/images/sealevel_1.jpg


Recent global sea level rise estimates
Recent Global Sea Level Rise Estimates National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

Slide from Rahmstorf web site

Data:

Church and White (2006)

Scenarios 2100:

50 – 140 cm (Rahmstorf 2007)

55 – 110 cm (“high end”, Delta Committee 2008)

Scenarios 2200:

150 – 350 cm (“high end”, Delta Committee 2008)

Scenarios 2300:

250 – 510 cm (German Advisory Council on

Global Change, WBGU, 2006)

WBGU

Delta Comm.

Rahmstorf

Data

Best Estimate = 80 cm of SL Rise by 2100, 1 m is not out of the question


Long Beach Island, NJ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

Human stabilized

400 m

Natural movement

Courtesy N. Psuty


(from Day After Tomorrow) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

Sea Level Rise – like this?

No !

Gradual sea level rise and storm events causing this?

Highly likely!

http://www.learnnc.org/lp/editions/cede_smsandvol/323


The Nile River Delta National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

1 m SL Rise would impact

6.1 Million people

4500 km2 cropland


Boston National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA

http://www.geo.umass.edu/stategeologist/frame_maps.htm


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