Baseline agro-climatic classification
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Baseline agro-climatic classification of Tuscany for climate scenarios applications. A.Crisci , G. Barcaioli, R. Magno. Aim of work is to give an answer. How to merge future global climatic trends with local climate variability?

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Baseline agro-climatic classification

of Tuscany for climate scenarios applications

A.Crisci, G. Barcaioli, R. Magno

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Aim of work is to give an answer

  • How to merge future global climatic trends with local climate variability?

  • How to work with climatic scenarios data for agriculture applications?

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


What is a climatic scenario
What is a Climatic Scenario?

  • Scenarios are images of how future might evolve.

  • Scenarios are NOT predictions or forecasts.

  • Scenarios should be based on internally consistent and reproducible sets of assumptions about main driving forces (population, economic growth, technology) and their relationships with climate.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


SRES: Main Scenarios hypothesis and their characteristics

  • A1 High emission

  • A2 Medium-high emission

  • B2 Medium- low emission

  • B1 Low emission

Every climatic scenarios is based on assumptions

on future expected condition called driving forces

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


For climatic scenarios a key factor is carbon dioxide emission

  • Climate scenarios are numerical simulations of atmosphere (GCM) with precise assumptions on future greenhouse gases emissions.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


GCMs – Global Circulation Models emission

  • ECHAM DKRZ (Hamburg)

  • CCM NCAR (Boulder)

  • HadCM3 Hadley Center (GB)

  • GFDL Geofluidodynamics Lab. (Princeton, USA)

  • CSIRO Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


First step to use scenarios application is to understand the real climate variability distribution on a defined territory.

This is possible through …

Data Spatialisation

Zoning

For each area, with available climatic scenarios’ data, is possible to perform

Local Downscaling

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Climatic Data Spatialisation real climate variability distribution on a defined territory.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Example: Tuscany network stations real climate variability distribution on a defined territory.

Termometric

Pluviometric

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Tuscany topographic variables: elevetion, latitude, longitude …

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Through longitude … different spatialization methods is easy to obtain climatology of Temperature …

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


…Rainfall and Evapotranspiration at monthly scale. longitude …

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Applied climatology with GIS traitement leads to agrometeorologic products:

Annual hydrologic budget

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


ZONING agrometeorologic products:

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


ZONING agrometeorologic products:definition

To delimit and to identify homogenuos climatic areas based on their thermometric and pluviometric monthly climatology on a specific territory.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


ZONING agrometeorologic products:methodology

After spatialisation, taking into account the climatic variability for a single site, is possible, through GIS techniques, to use a PCA analysis of monthly climatology of rainfall and temperature.

Unsupervised k-means clustering on PC scores images give a good results.

Other methodologies of pattern recognition are today available.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


ZONING: agrometeorologic products:Cluster analysis

K-means on PC - Identified areas

1. Apuane

2. Aree interne (crete senesi-Val di Chiana)

3. Subappennino settentrionale

4. Val di Cornia

5. Piana pisana

6. Basso grossetano

7. Grossetano

8. Crinale orientale

9. Zona pedemontana

10. Appennino

11. Area collinare centrale

12. Valli interne

13. Valdarno

14. Crinale settentrionale

15. Isole

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


ZONING agrometeorologic products::

is possible to extract monthly area climatology

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Local agrometeorologic products:

statistical

downscaling

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


SCENARIOS DATA : HADCM3 GCM agrometeorologic products:Hadley Centre

Scenarios data have low resolution so are not available for agrometeorological purposes.

Downscaling.

Lon ( 5 – 20)

Lat (35 – 42)

Period: 1860 - 2099

Data: daily

Parameters:

Precipitation, T° max, T°min

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Statistical Downscaling GCM agrometeorologic products:

  • Downscaling techniques have been developed in order to provide information on detailed scale.

  • Statistical downscaling is based on the assumption that regional climate is conditioned by the large-scale climatic state and local or regional physiographic features, such as topography, land-sea distribution and land use (e.g. von Storch 1999).

  • Based on this assumption, observed time series are used to establish an empirical relationship between local variables and large-scale variables.

  • Generally we use quantile regression method on daily data, with markovian adjustment for rainfall downscaling ( CLIMAGRI project) .

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Downscaling of daily scenario data agrometeorologic products:validation

Tmin

Tmax

Rainfall

Quantile-plot downscaled and observed data

Accurate for temperature

and sufficient for rainfall

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Example in agrometeorologic products: Excellence wine production site:

Montalcino

Zone 2 :

Crete senesi

Comparison

SRES scenario

A2 vs B2

Montalcino

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Montalcino agrometeorologic products:(August Tmax deviations)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Montalcino agrometeorologic products:GDD 5°C - Winter

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Montalcino agrometeorologic products:GDD °5C -Spring

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Montalcino agrometeorologic products:(Rainfall - January)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Montalcino agrometeorologic products:(Rainfall - May)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Montalcino agrometeorologic products:(Rainy days- January)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Montalcino agrometeorologic products:(Summer maximun dry spell)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Montalcino agrometeorologic products:(Frost days avril)

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


Conclusions agrometeorologic products:

  • Important to choose best GCM model for the study area.

  • Adequate spatialisation method in relation to topographic complexity and abundance of climatic data.

  • Caution using scenarios results, because are simulations not forecasts.

ISTITUTO DI BIOMETEOROLOGIA - CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE

(14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy)


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