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Go, go, go said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality

Go, go, go said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality T.S. Eliot (in Burnt Norten, Four Quartets). ... the problem is “not seeing what we don’t want to see” (“willful blindness”) J ohn Casti, X-Events, 2012. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise:

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Go, go, go said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality

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  1. Go, go, go said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality T.S. Eliot (in Burnt Norten, Four Quartets) ... the problem is “not seeing what we don’t want to see” (“willful blindness”) John Casti, X-Events, 2012

  2. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Communicating the Science about a Global Challenge Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Expected Future Changes An Unparalled Challenge for Humanity? Global Change: The Anthropocene Communicating the Challenge Responding to the Challenge Hans-Peter Plag Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA hpplag@odu.edu

  3. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations IPCC, 2013

  4. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

  5. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Temperature, 1900-2012, 5 Year averages of anomly compared to 1900-1905

  6. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

  7. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

  8. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Greenland

  9. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

  10. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations • Marcott et al., 2013

  11. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations “Normal” variability: - global temperature: 0.2 C/century (-0.5 to 0.5) - global sea level: 1.5 m/century (-6.0 to 6.0) o 20th century: - global temperature: 0.7 C - global sea level: 0.2 m o

  12. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Climate change is happening: - now, for certain - everywhere, globally - rapidly - expected to get worse Sea level change is happening: - now, certain - everywhere, globally - rapidly - expected to get worse

  13. Expected Future Changes

  14. Expected Future Changes

  15. Expected Future Changes

  16. Expected Future Changes

  17. Climate Change and Sea Level Change Expected Future Changes }IPCCt

  18. } Expected Future Changes 4 3 IPCC Assessment: Very Likely 2 o 1 C • Marcott et al., 2013

  19. Expected Future Changes Example Hampton Roads Today’s rate: 5 mm per year (about 1.5 feet in 100 years) Soon could get as high as: 20 mm per year (about 6 feet in 100 years) Modified from Church et al. (2010)

  20. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? 19.20.21.org: 19 cities in the world with 20 million people in the 21st century “..., almost all of the cities to be studied in 19.20.21 are cities that border the oceans of the world, and will be affected by the rise in sea levels

  21. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? Lovelock (and many others): - Planet is on a run-away path; could reach a warm state (5 C warmer) already in 2050 Australia China USA Germany Lovelock: - Carrying capacity of the planet would be reduced to 1 Billion - Recommendation: look for the lifeboats

  22. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? Are we on Titanic after it hit the iceberg? Captain E.J. Smith: “I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that.” There were lifeboats for about half of the passengers, but only 1/3 made it into them - I hope, we can do better.

  23. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? 11.1% Genghis Khan

  24. Global Change: The Anthropocene Population GDP CO2 CH4 1750 2000 Floods Temperature We are Reengineering the Planet ... Bill McKibben: Earth becomes Eaarth ... Cars Deforestation Extinction

  25. Global Change: The Anthropocene We are Reengineering the Planet ...

  26. Global Change: The Anthropocene “Has human activity over the past two centuries pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the Anthropocene?” James Syvitski, 2012. The Anthropocene: A transition to a new epoch? - a slowly hitting asteroid - a planetary accident - an extinction-class event Plag, 2013 We have moved from to back seats of the bus into the driver seat ...

  27. Communicating the Challenge Earth is on the Edge ? “Safe operating space for humanity” Rockstroem et al., 2009 Humanity as a global species is on the edge We don’t know where the edges are, but we keep running faster and faster ... (On The Edge @ RunningInFog)

  28. Communicating the Challenge The planet is on a path unknown to humanity ... Small Steps no longer make much sense ... We need a fundamental change of how we are in the world ...

  29. Responding to the Challenge What Could this Fundamental Change be? Millennium Development Goals (2005-2015): Mostly not reached Sustainable Development Goals (2015-2025): Proposed, look very good ... SDGs: 1 Thriving lives and livelihoods 2 Sustainable food security 3 Secure sustainable water 4 Universal clean energy 5 Healthy and productive ecosystems 6 Governance for sustainable societies Griggs et al., 2013

  30. Responding to the Challenge Griggs et al., 2013: Sustainable Development: “Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends” Griggs et al., 2013 Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life support system Plag et al., 2013

  31. Responding to the Challenge Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life-support system An economy that meets our needs by burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s life-support system is like a doctor who practices medicine by killing the patients. Economy for humanity: “An economy that meets our needs while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.” Plag et al., 2013

  32. “No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.” Albert Einstein “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it” Upton Sinclair

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