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LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities. Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011. Updated Sep 7, 2011. LAPS Motivation. High Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min) Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide

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slide1

LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities

Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov

ESRL / GSD Verification Summit

September 2011

Updated Sep 7, 2011

slide2

LAPS Motivation

  • High Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min)
  • Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide
    • Federal Gov’t – NWS, RSA, PADS, FAA, DHS
    • State Gov’t – California Dept of Water Resoures
    • International – Finnish Met. Inst., China Heavy Rain Inst.
    • Global analysis – used by SOS
  • Wide variety
  • of data sources:

OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

2

slide3

LAPS / STMAS DA-Ensemble System

Built-in Verification

Ports with system

Data

Data Ingest

Intermediate

data files

Error

Covariance

Trans

Classic

GSI

Analysis Scheme

STMAS-3D

Trans

Verification

Model prep

WRF-ARW

MM5

WRF-NMM

Probabilistic

Post

Processing

Ensemble

Forecast

OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

3

slide7

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification

Oklahoma Region (past 48 hours) 15 minute verification

~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

3 km grid spacing

1 km grid spacing

slide8

Solar Radiation Web Page

Verified at station locations measuring global solar radiation on time scales <= 15min

Mean Analyzed / Forecast

Mean Observed

RMS differences

slide9

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification

HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)

~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

Clearer Days

slide10

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification

HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)

~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

Partly Cloudy Days

slide12

Matching 1-3 hour

Solar Radiation Forecast

Cloud Cover Analysis

slide13

Solar Radiation Ensemble Forecast Verification

HMT Forecast (00-09 hours)

~6 Idaho ARL solar radiation stations.

slide14

Solar Radiation Forecast Verification

HWT Forecast (00-06 hours)

LAPS / STMAS / HRRR + Oklahoma solar radiation stations.

LAPS

STMAS

HRRR

LAPS

HRRR

STMAS

slide15

Radar Reflectivity Verification Web Page

Verified over various domains of integration for deterministic as well as ensemble forecasts.

3D radar volume data at several reflectivity thresholds.

BIAS

ETS

slide17

Analysis

3-hr Forecast, Lin μPhys

16 June 2002

Well-Developed Squall Line at Initial time

bias ets june 16 2002
Bias & ETS June 16 2002

Low Sensitivity in Bias to Variations

in Microphysics (developed squall line case)

ETS values are highest at early times

due to hot-start

slide19

Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor)

STMAS BIAS (North-East Corridor)

Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor)

CONUS LAPS/WRF and HRRR

forecast at 2011 09 04 00z
Forecast at 2011-09-04 00Z

NE Corridor Domain

ETS

Bias

slide22

850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity

Analysis

2hr HOT Fcst

2hr NO-HOT Fcst

16 June 2002

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