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LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities. Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011. Updated Sep 7, 2011. LAPS Motivation. High Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min) Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide

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LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities

Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov

ESRL / GSD Verification Summit

September 2011

Updated Sep 7, 2011


LAPS Motivation

  • High Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min)

  • Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide

    • Federal Gov’t – NWS, RSA, PADS, FAA, DHS

    • State Gov’t – California Dept of Water Resoures

    • International – Finnish Met. Inst., China Heavy Rain Inst.

    • Global analysis – used by SOS

  • Wide variety

  • of data sources:

OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

2


LAPS / STMAS DA-Ensemble System

Built-in Verification

Ports with system

Data

Data Ingest

Intermediate

data files

Error

Covariance

Trans

Classic

GSI

Analysis Scheme

STMAS-3D

Trans

Verification

Model prep

WRF-ARW

MM5

WRF-NMM

Probabilistic

Post

Processing

Ensemble

Forecast

OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

3



Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations

3-Frames at 15-minute interval


Solar Radiation Analysis Verification

Oklahoma Region (past 48 hours) 15 minute verification

~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

3 km grid spacing

1 km grid spacing


Solar Radiation Web Page

Verified at station locations measuring global solar radiation on time scales <= 15min

Mean Analyzed / Forecast

Mean Observed

RMS differences


Solar Radiation Analysis Verification

HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)

~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

Clearer Days


Solar Radiation Analysis Verification

HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)

~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

Partly Cloudy Days



Matching 1-3 hour

Solar Radiation Forecast

Cloud Cover Analysis


Solar Radiation Ensemble Forecast Verification

HMT Forecast (00-09 hours)

~6 Idaho ARL solar radiation stations.


Solar Radiation Forecast Verification

HWT Forecast (00-06 hours)

LAPS / STMAS / HRRR + Oklahoma solar radiation stations.

LAPS

STMAS

HRRR

LAPS

HRRR

STMAS


Radar Reflectivity Verification Web Page

Verified over various domains of integration for deterministic as well as ensemble forecasts.

3D radar volume data at several reflectivity thresholds.

BIAS

ETS



Analysis

3-hr Forecast, Lin μPhys

16 June 2002

Well-Developed Squall Line at Initial time


Bias ets june 16 2002
Bias & ETS June 16 2002

Low Sensitivity in Bias to Variations

in Microphysics (developed squall line case)

ETS values are highest at early times

due to hot-start


Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor)

STMAS BIAS (North-East Corridor)

Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor)

CONUS LAPS/WRF and HRRR


Forecast at 2011 09 04 00z
Forecast at 2011-09-04 00Z

NE Corridor Domain

ETS

Bias


That’s the latest – Questions?


850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity

Analysis

2hr HOT Fcst

2hr NO-HOT Fcst

16 June 2002



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