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Climate Change Vulnerability in ecosystems and Landscapes March 14, 2011 George Wright Society – Rethinking protected

Climate Change Vulnerability in ecosystems and Landscapes March 14, 2011 George Wright Society – Rethinking protected Areas in a Changing World. Patrick Comer Chief Ecologist NatureServe Healy Hamilton Climate Effects Modeler CA Academy of Sciences Bob Unnasch Fire Ecologist

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Climate Change Vulnerability in ecosystems and Landscapes March 14, 2011 George Wright Society – Rethinking protected

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  1. Climate Change Vulnerability in ecosystems and LandscapesMarch 14, 2011 George Wright Society – Rethinking protected Areas in a Changing World Patrick Comer Chief Ecologist NatureServe Healy Hamilton Climate Effects ModelerCA Academy of Sciences Bob Unnasch Fire Ecologist Sound Science Inc.

  2. Climate Change Response Over Time Future Knowledge: research, monitoring, adaptive management Time Current Knowledge Current Stressors 2100? Novel Stressors Novel Ecosystems Plan 2065-2080 Plan 2025-2040 Plan 2040-2065 Plan 2010-2025 Manage for Ecological Resiliency

  3. BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessment Partners: BLM, states, NatureServe and subcontractor team (Sound Science, CA Academy) Objectives: ‘wall-to-all’ assessment of key resources and change agents – including climate change - in preparation for resource management planning (under NEPA) Major Deliverables:Analysis of landscape scenarios for 2011, 2030, and 2060 time frames. Project Timeframe: 18 months (each)

  4. Rapid Assessment Basics • Management Questions drive the analysis • Key resources • Representative ecological systems • Vulnerable species assemblages • Vulnerable landscape species habitats • Change agents • Wildland fire effects • Development effects • Invasive species effects • Climate change effects • Landscape scenarios • Assess current ecological integrity • Change effects at 2030 • Climate change effects at 2060

  5. Great Basin Pinyon-Juniper Woodland © Southwest ReGAP 13.8% of ecoregion extent

  6. Management Question: What is the level of Ecological Integrity for the Key Resources? Great Basin Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecological Integrity Scorecard

  7. Invasives Plant Effects

  8. Great Basin Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Model for ‘natural’ conditions Class A Early All structures: herb/shrub/tree Class C Mid2 Open woodland Class D Late Open woodland Class B Mid1 Open woodland Probabilistic transitions: Drought Replacement fire Surface fire • Deterministic transitions: • Succession

  9. Landscape Dynamics Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Big sagebrush shrubland Estimated proportional extent by watershed

  10. 1) Gauging Current Departure 2)Hypotheses of Change

  11. Management Questions: Climate Change Effects Where will changes in climate be greatest relative to normal climate variability? Where will key resources experience climate outside their current climate envelope? Where will current locations of key resources experience significant and abrupt deviations from normal climate variation? What is the spatial distribution of projected range shifts for key resources?

  12. Bioclimate Envelope (averages of ~36 variables) Historical 1900-1980 CC onset 1980-1995 Current 1995-2010 Forecast 2020-2040 Forecast 2050-2070

  13. Landscape Dynamics Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Big sagebrush shrubland

  14. Magnitude and Directionality of Range Shift for Component Species A2 Scenario - 2010 A2 Scenario – 2040s A2 Scenario – 2060s

  15. Climate Change Vulnerability • Magnitude of change in key climate variables by time period. • Forecasted invasives abundance and effects on fire probabilities for fire regime departure scoring. • Magnitude and directionality of predicted range shift for component species.

  16. Challenges • Linking trends in climate variables to fire probabilities (e.g.,biennial patterns of moisture and drought) • Coping with variation across the ecoregion – how many distinct models are practical for a rapid, regional assessment? • Reporting Units for Landscape Vulnerability circa 2060; by 5th level watershed?

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