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Risky Business

Risky Business. Transportation leadership you can trust. Understanding Relative Risks and Safety Trends in Travel and Transportation. presented to Healthy Regions, Healthy People Policy and Research Symposium Series presented by Susan B Herbel, Ph.D. Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

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Risky Business

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  1. Risky Business Transportation leadership you can trust. Understanding Relative Risks and Safety Trends in Travel and Transportation presented toHealthy Regions, Healthy People Policy and Research Symposium Series presented bySusan B Herbel, Ph.D.Cambridge Systematics, Inc. October 16, 2005

  2. Understanding the Problem

  3. A Progress Report Number of Fatalities (in Thousands) 160 Projected at 1966 Rate Actual Fatalities 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 Year

  4. 2004 42,636 Fatalities Nearly 3M Injuries 4,365,000 (PDO) crashes (2003) $230B+ Cost to the Nation (2000) $820.00 per person

  5. Risky Business: The Consequences • Human • Economic • Mobility • Environmental

  6. Trends in Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates Rate Per Year 30 25 Fatality Rate per 100,000 Population 20 Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT 15 10 5 0 1923 1966 1980 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year

  7. Motor Vehicle Fatalities Source: FARS 43,005 42,884 42,636 42,196 41,945 41,717

  8. Persons Killed in Alcohol-Related Traffic Crashes, By Year 17,381 17,400 17,525 17,105 16,694 2,511 2,542 2,432 2,427 2,285 14,870 14,858 15,093 14,678 14,409 Source: FARS

  9. Risk Factors: Fatality Characteristics (2003) • Failure to wear safety belts (59% unrestrained) • Impaired driving (41%) • Roadway departures (38%) • Speeding (31%) • Distracted driving (25%) • Intersections (21%) • Unlicensed drivers (20%) • Pedestrians (11%) • Trucks (11%) • Motorcycles (8%) • Pedalcyclists (2%) • Transit (.06%) Total = 267%

  10. Fatal Crashes (2002) Roadwaydeparture (32%) (ROR) Impaired (30%) 14% 7% 15% 10% Fixed object (23%)

  11. Defining the Problem • Police Accident Reports • Data Management and Coordination • Analytic Techniques

  12. Is the incident an accident? Damn

  13. Addressing the Problem • Explicit Planning Factor • AASHTO Greenbook and MUTCD • Assumption: projects are “safe and efficient” • Limited solution sets • Independent infrastructure projects • Hazard elimination and rail grade crossing programs • Behavioral projects (Section 402)

  14. What do we worry about? • Aggressive Driving • Inattentive Driving

  15. Aggressive Driving: Most Worrisome Issue (2002) AAA Survey (39% of drivers) The Economist, Dec 14, 2002 p33

  16. How new is aggressive driving? • 1968 Parry. Aggression on the Road • 1971 Whitlock. Aggression responsible for 85% of road crashes in England • And before? Claude Guillot, 1707. Louvre

  17. Driver Inattention • Fatigue and stress • Multi-tasking • Kids in the back seat • Roadside features • Eating and drinking • What else?

  18. We know the problem is not handling the phone – it’s the attention issue.

  19. What Do We Need to Worry About? • Older Person Safety and Mobility • Decision Making Structure

  20. Population Pyramid -- 1950

  21. Population Pyramid -- 2025

  22. Population Pyramid -- 2050

  23. The Changing Demographics • The Baby Boomers • Aging in Place • Licensed drivers • Vehicle miles traveled • Education • Health • Wealth

  24. A Word of Caution!

  25. Driver’s License, 65+, 2003 Rosenbloom, TRB, 2005

  26. Married, Spouse Present, 65+ Rosenbloom, TRB, 2005

  27. Crash Factors for Older Drivers Injury and crash causation factors • Frailty • Wayfinding and distraction • Intersections • Signage • Pedestrians • Safety belts

  28. Fatal Crashes per 100 Million Miles Traveled Source: Williams 2003

  29. Driver deaths per 1000 driver involvements Source: Braver and Chen 2003

  30. Summary • Serious public health problem • Multivariate risk factors; hence, collaboration • New approaches required • Standard, “one size fits all” solutions nonexistant • Changes in organizational priorities are required.

  31. What Do We Need to Worry About? • Decision Making Structure • Who’s making the rules? Politics vs. Technical Experts • “Congestion trumps safety every time.” • “The road builders always win.”

  32. Safety Solutions • TEA-21 Safety Planning Factor • SAFETEA-LU • Safety Planning Factor • Strategic Highway Safety Plans • Behavioral Safety Program • Traffic Records • Earmarks

  33. Are we ahead of where we were 30 years ago? • Many issues are recurring, but we deal with them using more sophisticated methods. • While the driver has not evolved much since the creation of the first motor vehicles, the vehicles and roadways have. • The challenge now: application of knowledge gained in understanding behavior in the context of the old systems to the new and rapidly evolving ones. Prof. David Shinar, Ben Gurion University

  34. This is not the solution!

  35. THANK YOU

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